Preface:
This is my second round of redistricting. SonoftheSouth has criticized my work for it splitting up metro areas in the small states though this is less of a factor in the bigger states. In any event, I don’t want to rehash the basic procedure if I’m doing – if you missed part I its here: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2015/11/17/rethinking-redistricting-part-i-the-small-states/.
I will say however that I would like the topic to be more along the lines of “how many seats do you think each party would win” or “what do homeless incumbents do in this situation” or “who wins this head to head matchup” (which is definitely a topic in California). I’m not terribly familiar with state level politics so if you know of any legislator or county commissioner who would run in an open seat – let me know. What I don’t want is for the thread to devolve into “your procedure is illegitimate” because it involves unwinnable semantics-heavy arguments.
California
Northern California
1st District No Incumbent
Comments: This is the northeastern part of California and is the part of the state that most resembles the intermountain rural west (the seat is 76% white, whitest in the state). Guns are probably a big deal here and there’s a general antipathy toward the environmentalists. I would call this the Redwood district. No incumbent lives here but Doug LaMalfa lives just outside the district and would run here. He should be safe ceterus paribus.
2008 Election Results: 45.1 Obama, 54.9 McCain
2nd District Doug LaMalfa R-Richvale
Comments: The 2nd district is the far northern coast. It’s a rural district and there’s a lot of Bay Area expats and a lot of pot farms here. The district does shift eastward to take in more conservative areas (in fact it takes in LaMalfa’s home), which shifts the PVI downward, but a dem should win this seat barring a catastrophic year (and no way LaMalfa runs here). Not sure who the dems run here though. Thompson has represented this area before, but he doesn’t live here and might want to run in the safer 4th.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain
3rd District Doris Matsui D-Sacramento
Comments: The 3rd district is the Sacramento district. Sacramento has always been different from the rest of the San Joaquin Valley. As opposed to the usual Scoop Jackson type dems you find in much of the SJV, the dems here are more liberal. Sacramento is the part of the state whose politics have been unchanged for decades. The congresswoman is Doris Matsui, who along with her late husband, have represented the seat for 36 years. Matsui is in her early 70s now and there’s a definite possibility that she would retire to make room for Ami Bera, who is left without a district. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.7 Obama, 32.3 McCain
4th District Mike Thompson D-St Helena, John Garamendi D-Walnut Grove
Comments: The 4th lies between the bay area and Sacramento. There are three main components – Napa County, known for its vineyards; Solano County which is more blue collar and home to the small cities of Vallejo and Fairfield, and Davis County, home to UC-Davis (which I’ve heard is pretty far left). This district has been voting dem for a long time as you can see in this map: http://www.geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/California-1956-Presidential-Election.png, so there’s no doubt what party will win it. The question is who – if Garamendi retires (he’s 70) there’s a good chance Thompson runs here. If he doesn’t, there’s still a good chance Thompson runs here and its likely that either way, Garamendi’s career may be done. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 65.8 Obama, 34.2 McCain
5th District Jared Huffman D-San Rafael
Comments: The 5th is the Marin-Sonoma district. It takes in geographically half of Sonoma county but most of the population (cities of Santa Rosa and Petaluma) of the county. Sonoma county is somewhat different than Marin as its more its own metro area and similar to Napa Valley (lots of vineyards). The district probably has one of the most dem white populations in the country and Huffman is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: 77.8 Obama, 22.2 McCain
Bay Area
6th District (Teal) Nancy Pelosi D-San Francisco
Comments: The 6th is most of San Francisco. SF is the only part of the state with a large “great wave” population of immigrants (Irish and Italian). So it was always more of a northeastern city (and like New York it is a big financial center being the hq of wells fargo). The political battle lines here are between liberal (Feinstein or Newsom) and far left (Mirkarimi or someone like that). Pelosi probably falls somewhere between that. Being 75 years old, I would think Pelosi hangs it up by 2022, especially since a lot of her allies (Waxman, Miller, Markey) have left the house. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 86.8 Obama, 13.2 McCain
7th District (Dark Gray) Mark DeSaulnier D-Concord
Comments: This is the Contra Costa district. Contra Costa has somewhat of a split personality between the labor-dem maritime areas and the more posh suburban areas. For 40 years, this was represented by George Miller, who fell more in the former category and chaired the Ed&Labor committee. Mark DeSaulnier will probably be just as liberal as Miller but will probably never chair anything given his age (63).
2008 Election Results: 72.2 Obama, 27.8 McCain
8th District (Slate Blue) Barbara Lee D-Oakland
Comments: This is probably the most radical left-wing district in the country. Oakland (which is like half the district) was once a maritime city but in the 1960s due to white flight and what not became the center of the Black Panther movement. To the north is Berkeley which until the 1960s was more of an elite place where the people too rich to live in Oakland lived but became synonymous with campus left-wing agitation. It should be no coincidence that the district has had two relatively radical members of congress over the past 45 years – Ron Dellums and Barbara Lee. Lee actually was reportedly a former black panther, but her left-wing views are no disqualification for this safe seat.
2008 Election Results: 90.7 Obama, 9.3 McCain
9th (Cyan) District Eric Swalwell D-Dublin
Comments: Not all of the East Bay across from San Francisco is a hotbed of political radicalism, Berkeley-style. The suburban areas south of Oakland – Hayward, Castro Valley – are something like outposts of Middle America on San Francisco Bay. They are places where the people who work in the East Bay’s factories live in comfortable, well-tended neighborhoods. These suburbs, and some areas east of the mountains which are some of the wealthiest in the bay area, form the bulk of California’s 9th congressional district. That being said, the congressman here for forty years was Pete Stark who was almost as liberal as Ron Dellums or Barbara Lee. Yet he wasn’t a “let’s all be friends” type of lefty but more of the street-brawler type. Dating back to the 1980s (scroll down to the bottom of this link: http://articles.latimes.com/1986-12-08/news/mn-1861_1_jim-wright) Stark always had something of a propensity for talking crap to other members of congress. Yet he seldom had any trouble in primaries until 2012 when Eric Swalwell, a 31 year old lawyer, ran against him. Many wondered how Stark would act when faced with his first challenge in a long time and Stark really went off the deep end. Had he been more courteous, Stark probably would have won, but he was too arrogant. Of the California delegation, Swalwell has a good chance to be a lifer and is clearly safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 70.8, McCain 29.2
10th (Deep Pink) District Zoe Lofgren D-San Jose, Mike Honda D-San Jose
Comments: This is the heart of San Jose, which was once an farm-to-market town for the nearby vineyards and fruit orchards and in the 1950s became a hotbed of the military industrial complex. It also has the largest Hispanic population of any bay area district (35%). That description sounds a lot like a southern California district, but this district has never had the politics that Southern California once had. As a matter of fact the district has had two liberal congresscritters over the last two 52 years. Both were on the house judiciary committee and both were pretty liberal (Don Edwards recently died at 100 and there’s probably an fbi file on him for his leftist activities). Lofgren is ranking member on the immigration subcommittee and may eventually chair the whole committee. Mike Honda lives here but he probably retires given his age. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.3 Obama, 28.7 McCain
11th (Chartreuse) District Jackie Speier D-Hillsborough
Comments: Almost 75% of the district is in Hillsborough County and the SF portion contains Candlestick Park and SF State (where Tom Lantos was once a professor). The San Mateo portion contains San Francisco’s airport. I would think that Pelosi’s district would be the most asian of any California district, but this is actually the most asian district in CA (nearly 35%). The person representing this district is Jackie Speier, whose career actually goes back before Lantos. She was a staffer for Leo Ryan who was executed by a cult, shortly after winning reelection in 1978. She ran for the seat in a 1979 special election, but lost in the primary. The seat went to a republican and then was unseated by Lantos in 1980 (one of only three R incumbents to lose that year). Lantos was congressman for 27 years and chaired foreign affairs his last year in office. After he died in 2008, Speier, who by that time had been in the state legislature for many years, finally won the seat. But having been elected at 58 rather than 29, she will likely never chair a committee. Safe D regardless.
2008 Election Results: 75.8 Obama, 24.2 McCain
12th District (Cornflower Blue)Anna Eshoo D-Atherton
Comments: The 12th is the Silicon Valley district, containing a lot of corporate headquarters for computer companies and also contains Stanford University. There are still remnants of the Military Industrial Complex as there’s still a Lockheed plant in Sunnyvale. In any event, this is one of the wealthiest districts in the country. The district does have something of a liberal republican tradition, but Eshoo has represented this seat for 23 years and has always won easily. She may retire soon though. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 73.8 Obama, 26.2 McCain
Central California
13th District No Incumbent
Comments: This seat contains the foothill areas in the Santa Clara Valley, Santa Cruz, and the agricultural areas of Watsonville, Gilroy, Morgan Hill, Hollister and Salinas. The foothill areas are people with money, Santa Cruz is full of liberal counterculture types and the rest of the district is Grapes of Wrath country. This would have been Sam Farr’s seat, but he retired. Leon Panetta’s son will probably run here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.5 Obama, 28.5 McCain
14th District Tom McClintock R-Roseville
Comments: This is the northern Sacramento suburbs along I-80. This district was probably dem leaning decades ago but then again there weren’t many people living there then. The population of this district has been growing pretty quickly since the 1970s and some of them are conservative expats from areas closer to the ocean. McClintock himself is from Ventura county. McClintock is a paulite but the district is safe enough that he should be fine. Likely bordering on safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.8 Obama, 53.2 McCain
15th District Ami Bera D-Elk Grove
Comments: The 15th is the motherlode country and also contains exurban parts of San Joaquin and Sacramento counties. Bera should hope Matsui retires so he can run in her seat because he is absolutely screwed here.
2008 Election Results: 45.4 Obama, 54.6 McCain
16th District Jerry McNerney D-Livermore
Comments: 55% of this district is in the eastern part of Alameda and Contra Costa counties which is the least dem part of the entire bay area (Bay Area portion was 63% Obama), the other 45% is in San Joaquin County which is the most dem area (SJ portion went 62% Obama) of the valley south of Sacramento. This district would probably have been winnable for the republicans until the early-to-mid 2000s. Jerry McNerney, the district’s congressman, has a background in math/science (worked in alternative energy industry and has phd in math) and his hometown of Livermore actually has an atomic energy plant. He has never won by solid margins though this is the most dem district he’s ever represented. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 63 Obama, 37 McCain
17th District Jeff Denham R-Atwater
Comments: The 17th is located between Fresno and Stockton containing Modesto, Madera and Merced with Modesto being the biggest of them. This is an agricultural/small city district that has voted for dems before, the most well known of them being Gary Condit (rep from 1989-2003). But since he was pretty conservative for a California democrat, most dems wouldn’t be able to recreate his success. The current incumbent is Jeff Denham, who is a mainstream republican. The district is 46% Hispanic but that isn’t the percentage of the electorate they are. I’d rate this seat Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.5 Obama, 50.5 McCain
18th District no incumbent
Comments: This is a sleepy seaside district. I think of this song when writing about this district: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuU12Ye9F8. The district is pretty divided, and not just by Rs and Ds. The dems are divided between high turnout retirees in the Pacific Grove area and the hispanic population in places like Santa Maria. The Monterrey County portion skews the district as it is 27% of the population and voted 68% for Obama. The rest of the district went for Obama by less than a 1000 votes. I’m not sure of who the pols are here but I think Maldonado is from here. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 55 Obama, 45 McCain
19th District David Valadao R-Hanford, Jim Costa D-Fresno
Comments: This is the most urban seat in the valley south of Sacramento. The main part of the seat is Fresno but it also contains the cities of Visalia and Hanford. This part of the state is more diverse than it gets credit for (it’s not just okies and Mexicans) – there is also a relatively large population of Armenians and Punjabis. The district is a double bunk between an underperforming incumbent (Costa) and an over performing incumbent (Valadao). The seat would probably go to Valadao unless it’s a really bad year for republicans.
2008 Election Results: 49.7 Obama, 50.3 McCain
20th District Kevin McCarthy R-Bakersfield, Devin Nunes R-Tulare
Comments: At a cursory glance, this looks like a Sierra Nevada/Death Valley district, but much of the population is in the southern end of the seat in Kern County. The southern Valley is the most conservative part of the SJV and was the first part of the valley to go republican. This is the second Valley double bunk and McCarthy, who still could be a future speaker, would be facing up against Devin Nunes who could eventually chair Ways and Means. Being the most republican seat in the state, it is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 42.2, McCain 57.8
21st District No Incumbent
Comments: The 21st contains the twin cities of Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The dynamic here is similar to Monterey County where you have both old rich white high turnout dems and young poor Hispanic low turnout dems. For 18 years this was represented by the Capps family. At 77, Capps probably didn’t want to spend the rest of her life waiting to be in the majority (and if the dems were to take control, she probably wouldn’t be committee chair). It was thought that Capps’ daughter would run here but the dems seem to have chosen mayor Helen Schneider as there candidate. It’s almost as safe as the 2000s 23rd.
2008 Election Results: Obama 64.5, McCain 35.5
22nd District Julia Brownley D-Westlake Village
Comments: Although the San Fernando Valley district is really the 23rd, the demographics of the 23rd are more comparable to what the Valley looked like 30 years ago. It doesn’t contain any high poverty areas like the 23rd and is pretty wealthy. The area in the LA county portion of the district reads like a who’s who of ritzy places to live – Malibu, Bel-Air, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Woodland Hills. The district is pretty divided – half the district is in the Ventura county portion where Obama won by 283 votes, while Obama won the LA county portion by nearly 30. What explains the difference? My guess is that the Ventura portion has less people who work in the entertainment biz, less jews and more parents with kids in the house (see CA 38). The incumbent is Julia Brownley, and this should be a Lean D district.
2008 Election Results: 57.8 Obama, 42.2 McCain
LA
23rd District (Aquamarine) Tony Cardenas D-Los Angeles Brad Sherman D-Sherman Oaks
Comments: This is the San Fernando Valley district. The Valley was basically all orange groves until the 1950s when it was more or less built overnight. Historically the partisan makeup was
1) liberal jewish dems in the southern part of the seat who worked in the entertainment biz
2) semi-loyal working class dems
3) wealthy republicans in Porter Ranch, Granada Hills, Reseda
The 1st demographic is still in the district but the 2nd and 3rd demographics have mostly gone away. Hispanics have moved into the areas of category 2 and the areas in category 3 can’t be counted on to go republican (despite the fact that the demos are largely the same). I’m not sure what happens to Brad Sherman but he could hypothetically run here against Cardenas. Although the district is 55% Hispanic, that’s nowhere near there percentage of the electorate and Sherman might have a decent shot here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.1 Obama, 28.9 McCain
24th District (Indigo) Adam Schiff D-Burbank
Comments: When I think of this district I think of old money, the rose bowl, panda express and van halen. This district was republican up until 2000, when Adam Schiff unseated James Rogan, presumably for supporting the impeachment of Clinton. That said, the fact that Rogan never got above 51% and lost by nine to Schiff means he may have lost anyways (and if not in 2000, he certainly would have been gone by 2006). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.8 Obama, 32.2 McCain
25th District (PaleVioletRed) No Incumbent
Comments: The district is sort of bisected by Ballona Creek and culturally is sort of a dividing line. North of it is Santa Monica, Holmby Hills, the UCLA campus, Venice, Marina Del Rey. Those areas have a large bohemian population and a lot of people in the film business. To the south, its less showbiz-y and more defense industry oriented (at least historically). The southern part of the district also contains LAX, Culver City (which was historically jewish, not so sure now) and east of LaCienega, there is a decent sized black population. No incumbent lives here and even though he hasn’t represented this area before, its possible Sherman could carpetbag here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 81.5 Obama, 18.5 McCain
26th District (Gray) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Hollywood district and definitely the most fashionable part of LA, – Hollywood Bowl, most of the film studios, the Whisky a-go-go, the miracle mile and sunset strip and the mansions of Beverly Hills. This would have been Henry Waxman’s district but he retired in 2014. I’m not sure who would run here but it would probably be a democrat with views similar to Waxman.
2008 Election Results: 79.5 Obama, 20.5 McCain
27th District (Spring Green) Xavier Becerra D-Los Angeles, Maxine Waters D-Los Angeles, LR Allard D-Los Angeles, Karen Bass D-Los Angeles
Comments: The seat is south central LA, the gateway cities (Huntington Park, southgate), downtown and east LA/boyle heights. Everyone is familiar with the demographic changes in California from white to Hispanic. But this area has gone from mostly black to Hispanic. It may have actually have been majority black as late as 1980. But the district is the most Hispanic district in the state (75%). The hispanics living here are some of the poorest of the California hispanics and I estimated that Obama won 87% of the Hispanic vote here. Three other incumbents live here but they’re all older and wouldn’t win a primary against Becerra. My guess is that they all retire and Becerra continues serving in congress and will eventually be promoted to congressional leadership. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 89.8 Obama, 10.2 McCain
28th District (Plum) Judy Chu D-Monterey Park, Grace Napolitano D-West Covina
Comments: The 28th district is the San Gabriel Valley and the district is bisected by the San Gabriel River. As a rule of thumb the closer you get to the mountains the nicer the real estate is and the flatter the topography, the more working class it gets. The district is 57% Hispanic but also has a large (28%) asian population, the largest asian population of any southern California district. Both Napolitano and Chu live here but I think Napolitano retires since she’s almost eighty. Chu is an unabashed lefty but it’s also a safe dem district.
2008 Election Results: 67.4 Obama, 32.6 McCain
29th District (Dark Sea Green) Ted Lieu D-Torrance
Comments: This is the South Bay district. The main industries here are defense (isn’t there some military thing in El Segundo) and shipping (San Pedro), oil and cars (Toyota is HQ in Torrance). Much of the district is white and Asians who live in the tony beachside communities. The whites here aren’t that republican but they probably vote more like Orange County than West LA. The areas further inland with more black and Hispanic populations skew the district to the dems. This district was winnable for republicans probably until the 2000s as Jane Harman had many tough elections in the 90s and only stopped once Palos Verdes was removed. The incumbent is Ted Lieu who, from what I know, is a garden variety liberal dem who occasionally breaks with his party on issues like Affirmative Action. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 60.6 Obama, 39.4 McCain
Greater Southern California
30th District Steve Knight R-Palmdale
Comments: The district is a mix between tattooed tweekers, illegals, gangbanger expats from LA (I’ve heard Palmdale called “Palmpton), religious fanatics and the military (George and Edwards AFB). The one area that votes differently is Santa Clarita which is not in the desert and more tony (similar to somewhere like Simi Valley). Decades ago the district might have been as high as R+15 but the Hispanic population has lowered the PVI. Steve Knight should be safe for the time being
2008 Election Results: 49.2 Obama, 50.8 McCain
31st District Linda Sanchez D-Lakewood, Alan Lowenthal D-Long Beach
Comments: The 31st is dominated by the city of Long Beach. Long Beach at one time had an identity separate from LA and was settled by people from the plains states (there used to be an Iowa picnic or something like that). After WWII it became more part of Greater Southern California as the areas between it and LA were swallowed up. Two incumbents live here and my guess is that Lowenthal retires since he has less seniority and is a lot older than Sanchez. In any event both are pretty liberal and this is a safe D seat.
2008 election Results: 72.7 Obama, 27.3 McCain
32nd District No Incumbent
Comments: The seat is mainly 1950s-era suburbs along I-5 starting from Montebello, to a point near Disneyland. The most well known city is Whittier which was once a small town settled by Quakers and has its own university (Whittier college). The city is well known as the hometown of Richard Nixon who was a Whittier alum and was elected to congress from Whittier in 1946 (and again in 1948 before going to the senate). This is another seat that may have been won by republicans as late as the early 2000s. I’m not sure who runs here with it being an open seat. Maybe Golden Statesman could run here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.4 Obama, 41.6 McCain
33rd District Dana Rohrabacher R-Huntington Beach
Comments: The 33rd is the oldest part of Orange County – Garden Grove, Huntington Beach and much of Anaheim (including Disneyland). Population wise, the district is evenly divided between whites, Hispanics and Asians – but the district probably has a majority white electorate. The Asians here tend to be rather conservative compared to elsewhere in the state. Dana Rohrabacher has represented this area for a long time and is something of an idiosyncratic conservative. He should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain
34th District Norma Torres D-Pomona
Comments: The 34th is a less rich version of the 24th. There are some wealthy areas in the foothills but they aren’t as wealthy compared to Pasadena and there is more less wealthy areas in the district (Pomona and parts of Ontario) to skew the median income downwards. Had he not retired in 2012, this would have been David Dreier’s district but the incumbent living here now is Norma Torres. I have no idea what Torres’ views are but if she’s a standard teacher union hack, she might have trouble here. Tilt/Lean D
2008 Election Results: 56 Obama, 44 McCain
35th District Mark Takano D-Riverside
Comments: The 35th is the heart of the Inland Empire. Decades ago, Riverside and San Bernardino were kind of a separate metro area surrounded by orange groves and were classic American Graffiti type places with drag races and drive-ins, judging by what Joan Didion wrote about this area in 1966: http://www.carljay.com/whatsnew/nothing_left.htm. The culture of this area has always been working class and the district has always been dem, even when the district was majority white. Mark Takano is the incumbent here and is pretty much an unabashed lefty. Since Pete Aguilar is left without a district, he may run here and hopefully he wins since he has more lifer potential than Takano (Aguilar is 36 and Takano is 54). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 62.7 Obama, 37.3 McCain
36th District Pete Aguilar D-Redlands, Paul Cook R-Yucca Valley, Raul Ruiz D-Palm Desert
Comments: The 36th district has similar demographics to the 30th but the areas on the wealthy end are wealthier (Palm Desert, Indian Wells) and there’s more stuff to do (Big Bear, Palm Springs). Since the district is “only” R+5 and the only majority white (52%) district in the inland empire, it must have the largest white lefty concentration in the IE. Paul Cook is the incumbent here and given his age may leave office before 2022. Raul Ruiz is basically screwed as his district is dismembered and would probably have an eye on a statewide race. The district should go republican but I’m not sure who replaces Cook when he retires – maybe Tim Donnelly. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 48 Obama, 52 McCain
37th District Ken Calvert R-Corona
Comments: The era of California’s population growing at breakneck speed is mostly a thing of the past but the 37th district is where that still is happening – the district grew 53% from 2000-2010. It is kind of a diamond shaped district with major population centers in each end (Corona, MoVal, and Murrieta). In between those areas, there is still orange grove land. The incumbent is Ken Calvert who is now on his twelfth term. He would probably be on his seventeenth term if he hadn’t narrowly lost a primary in 1982. Calvert has normally won by large margins, though he did have a DGLB incident early in his career but it was timed perfectly as it was before the 94 elections. He should continue to win reelection unless the district trends more dem. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.1 Obama, 50.9 McCain
38th District Ed Royce R-Fullerton
Comments: This area is sort of the petit bourgeoisie of Orange County, somewhat socon, and more people with kids in the house than in the neighboring 39th. So as a result you have a fairly conservative seat. This was the district that sent Bill Dannemeyer to congress, who had pretty medieval views on gays. Since then, the district’s congressman has been Ed Royce. Royce is just as conservative, but he tends to keep a low profile. He’s always been pretty safe and this is the most R district he’s ever represented. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.2 Obama, 53.8 McCain
39th District No Incumbent
Comments: This is the part of Orange County that people probably think of when they think of OC. Most of the fashionable beachfront communities are in this district such as Newport and Laguna Beach. If you’re visiting OC and flying into John Wayne, you may never leave this district. Of all the OC-based districts, Obama probably did the best with whites here (around 46%) as there is definitely a bohemian presence here. It also contains Irvine which from what I know is kind of the SoCal equivalent of the research triangle and “new democrat” territory. But what makes the district winnable for dems is the inclusion of about half of Santa Ana which is almost all-Hispanic and usually 60+% dem. The district in 2008 had around an EVEN/D+1 PVI but Meg Whitman won about 56-57% of the vote here in 2010, so people split there tickets. No incumbent lives here but Mimi Walters would run here. I’d rate this tilt/Lean R to begin with.
2008 Election Results: 54.3 Obama, 45.7 McCain
40th District Mimi Walters R-Laguna Niguel; Darrell Issa R-Vista
Comments: The 40th is the trans SD-OC district and a shrunken version of the 90s 48th district. The population here is less dense than in the LA basin because the land is less flat. I’ve heard this part of Southern California called “masterplanistan”. This area was settled about thirty years after the parts of OC closer to LA. You can kind of tell by the names of the community or subdivision: “the x at y point” and the names all have faux Spanish names (rancho this or whatever). The OC and SD county areas are divided between Camp Pendleton. The military base, as well as the presence of mountains, lowers the population density substantially. The politics here are definitely more socon than the 39th but not nearly as much as somewhere like Riverside or Fresno. It’s actually the most republican district on the pacific coast and Darrell Issa should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain
41st District No Incumbent
Comments: The 41st is the northern San Diego suburbs more or less – Poway, Escondido, San Marcos and Carlsbad. This is mostly Spanish roofed homes built in the 70s and 80s and similar to the 2000s 50th district. Bilbray would have won here in 2012 but with him probably not wanting to be a third-time freshman, the seat goes to some other local republican in the state assembly or what not. I’d say tilt/lean R in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 50.8 Obama, 49.2 McCain
42nd District Susan Davis D-San Diego, Scott Peters D-San Diego
Comments: The 42nd is the north side of San Diego and the most trendy parts of the city. Not surprisingly this has the most liberal white population in San Diego. Disconnected by MCAS Miramar from the rest of the district is Scripps Ranch which is more republican than the rest of the district and more similar to areas in the 41st. Both Susan Davis and Scott Peters live here I think. Peters I think wouldn’t want to run in the 41st and Davis I think probably would retire if faced with a h2h matchup. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 61.2 Obama, 38.8 McCain
43rd District Juan Vargas D-San Diego
Comments: The 43rd is the oldest part of San Diego and contains the downtown area. It’s not as fashionable as the 42nd though it does contain some points of attraction – the Zoo and Coronado. This is the only part of San Diego with a really large Hispanic population (51%) which lives in a corridor stretching from the areas SE of San Diego (Logan Heights) to the communities of National City, Chula Vista and San Ysidro. This is also the most dem district in San Diego and has been voting dem for a long time. This was Bob Filner’s seat but he gave it up to run for mayor (wonder if he would have been exposed had he stayed on as a house member). The current house member is Juan Vargas who is certainly less liberal than Filner. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 66.4 Obama, 33.6 McCain
44th District Duncan Hunter D-Alpine
Comments: Much of the district is in the area known as East County. This area is more secluded than the rest of San Diego County and certainly more socon than areas closer to the ocean. Despite the fact that the military bases are in the 42nd and 43rd – the reason those districts don’t vote republican is because the military members (which is a republican demo) largely don’t live there. Instead, a lot of them live here. Since 1983 (old man Hunter actually represented what is now the 43rd in 81-82) the district has been represented by the Hunters – Duncan Hunter Sr from 83-09 and his son since then. Both of them were/are reliable conservative votes, especially when it involves the military. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain
Florida
1st District Jeff Miller R-Chumuckla
Comments: This is almost like an extension of Alabama as George Wallace got about 60% of the vote here in 1968. It’s also a military heavy district with Eglin Air Force base and is one of the reasons why it’s the most R district in the state. Jeff Miller, the district’s congressman, sits on two committees important to his district – Veterans Affairs (which he chairs) and Armed Services (which he may eventually chair). Safe Republican.
2008 Election Results: 34.1 Obama, 65.9 McCain
2nd District Gwen Graham D-Tallahassee
Comments: There are some rural demosaur counties but the real electoral vitality for the democrats in the district is Leon County (Tallahassee) and since it is split, it’s hard to see Graham winning the district. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain
3rd District No Incumbent
Comments: The 3rd is a mostly rural district between Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Gainesville. I’m not sure who the local officeholders are in this area but it should go to a republican. Ted Yoho might run here.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain
4th District Ander Crenshaw R-Jacksonville, Corrine Brown D-Jacksonville
Comments: Jacksonville being so far north never had the tourism or population explosion of South Florida. It also has a southern feel to it and as a result dems will probably do better upballot. But Corrine Brown is not the right type of democrat to win the district. Someone like Alvin Brown would have a better shot against Crenshaw. Likely R with Brown, Tossup with someone else.
2008 Election Results: 51 Obama, 49 McCain
5th District No Incumbent
Comments: I’ve never been here but I assume the 5th is the only republican district in Florida that has a high presence of what I would claim is the single most durable southern republican voting bloc – exurban, socon, married families with kids still in the house. It’s actually the second most republican district in the state (only a point less than the 1st) and fast growing. This would have been DeSantis district but he’s running for the senate. Someone with similar views to him will probably win this seat though its possible Crenshaw would run here.
2008 Election Results: 35.3 Obama, 64.7 McCain
6th District Ted Yoho R-Gainesville
Comments: The 6th is a tale of two (mid-sized) cities with differing politics. Gainesville is home to the University of Florida and is predictably Dem. Ocala on the other hand is a small Florida city, similar to somewhere like Lakeland, and votes republican. This kind of cancels things out leading to a slight R advantage. Ted Yoho, the district’s congressman is something of a gadfly and could lose an R+4 seat like West did (the might run in FL-3)
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain
7th District No Incumbent
Comments: I would call this the “Volusia” district. Daytona Beach is the main attraction there with the hard-sand beaches, race-car driving and boardwalk. Further inland is the small city of Deland which is where Stetson University is. The district has been trending republican as of late and Volusia is one of the few Kerry-Romney counties out there. It might have to do with the FDR generation dying off and being replaced by the silents (too young to fight in WWII and to old to fight in Vietnam). The democrats should still contest this, which would probably be tilt R at worst in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 51.9 Obama, 48.1 McCain
8th District Dan Webster R-Winter Gardens
Comments: The 8th is mostly western Orlando exurbs. Areas further north and west are more republican while the areas to the south and east are more dem. It’s a pretty marginal district and Webster may have lost here in 2012. Webster first made the news as being the subject of a low-brow attack ad in 2010 called “Taliban Dan”. When he was first elected it was thought he would serve as a placeholder for a few years and call it quits but he was recently being discussed as a speaker candidate. Tossup.
2008 Results: 53.2 Obama, 46.8 McCain
9th District John Mica R-Winter Park
Comments: This is the urban core of the Orlando area but interestingly enough you can go to Central Florida for vacation without ever stepping foot in this district. This part of Florida used to be the most republican part of the state and was sending republicans to the legislature when the legislature was otherwise all-dem. But the area has trended hard to the dems in recent years – Orange County was one of only two Dole-Gore counties in the country. Still, the inclusion of a lot of Seminole county is what makes this district winnable for republicans. But Mica may be too conservative for the seat. So it should be a tossup.
2008 Results: 54.2 Obama, 45.8 McCain
10th District Rich Nugent R-Spring Hill
Comments: I would have thought the whitest district in Florida would be in the panhandle but this is actually the whitest district in the state (82.4%). The district is anchored by Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties which are sort of exurbs of the Tampa Area and sort of there own metro area. The district is basically a collection of master-planned retirement communities that vote republican. The district’s congressman, Rich Nugent, is retiring but there’s no reason to think it won’t elect another republican.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain
11th District Bill Posey R-Rockledge
Comments: This is the Space Coast district, being the site of Cape Canaveral and all. Bill Nelson actually represented this district in the 80s when it was far more republican at the presidential level, yet since 1994 no democrat has gotten above 45%. So it’s like the district has had two countervailing trends. This should be a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain
12th District No Incumbent
Comments: This is the part of Florida you see if you go to Disneyworld as it has all the attractions plus the airport, so you may never leave the seat. The district is 35 percent hispanic, the highest of any district north of Miami. The hispanics coming here are not cubans, but puerto ricans who (at least in NY) are almost as democratic as blacks. This is the fastest growing part of the state as the district (up 53% from 2000-2010.) This is an open seat and should go to a democrat, but it might switch hands if there is a strong republican year in a low turnout midterm election. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.7 Obama, 42.3 McCain
13th District Gus Bilirakis R-Palm Harbor
Comments: This is basically the northern part of the Tampa Bay area. The Pinellas and Pasco portions of the district narrowly went for Obama but what pushes the district to the republicans is the Hillsborough portion which went 55% for McCain. But that only matters at the presidential level. Gus Bilirakis (Bil-i-rake-is I think) and his father have represented the district for a combined 32 years. After getting 56ish percent in his first run in 2006, he’s never gotten below 60 percent. The district is a little less republican than his current one but it shouldn’t make too much of a difference unless it’s an open seat. Safe R with Bilirakis, Lean/Likely R without.
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain
14th District Dennis Ross R-Lakeland
Comments: The western part of the seat is basically the fast growing Tampa exurbs (the district as a whole grew 41% from 00-10) while the area to the east (Polk County) is a small Florida city and what I picture Orlando would be like without Disneyworld. The district IMO most represents the Florida Adam Carolla is talking about here (NSFW): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugmipPvTFE. The district’s congressman, Dennis Ross, has some tea party ties, but is otherwise a backbencher. He should be pretty safe.
2008 Election results: 44.8 Obama, 55.2 McCain
15th District Kathy Castor D-Tampa
Comments: The 15th district is the Tampa district. Tampa is somewhat of a blue collar community and is known for being the cigar manufacturing capital of the country. It also has a decent sized cuban population, many of which came to the United States before Castro. Kathy Castor, the district’s congresswoman, is from a well connected family in Florida politics – her father was a judge I think, her mother at one point ran for the senate and nearly won, and her sister is in the legislature. She is on the Energy and Commerce committee and could eventually chair it. The republicans came close to winning this seat in the 90s but since then it’s been pretty safe. Likely-to-Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 60.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain
16th District No Incumbent
Comments: St Petersburg has a reputation as being full of old geezers and the 16th, along with the 10th and 19th, are the three old districts in Florida with about 82ish percent of the population being over the age of 18. Much of this area has been represented by republicans for 60ish years though part of the reason was because of the incumbency of Bill Young. When he died, the dems nearly won the seat. With the district shifted further south and with it being an open seat, only Bill Young himself could have won this seat. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 56.3 Obama, 43.7 McCain
17th District Vern Buchanan R-Sarasota
Comments: The 17th is the southern part of the Tampa Bay area and in some ways is its own metro area. This part of Florida was heavily republican until the 90s and since then has stabilized at a low-to-mid single digit republican PVI. Vern Buchanan, the incumbent, nearly lost in 2006, but has won by pretty solid margins since. He has made the CREW corruption list before but he’s not blatantly corrupt so I’ll rate this Likely R.
2008 Results: 48.8 Obama, 51.2 McCain
18th District Lois Frankel D-West Palm Beach
Comments: This is northern Palm Beach county and is politically balanced out with a lot of republican Martin County. Despite the district shifting into Martin county, Frankel’s district actually stays the same PVI-wise. Basically, Frankel should continue to win unless its really a bad year.
2008 Results: 56.9 Obama, 43.1 McCain
19th District No Incumbent
Comments: The district has basically two components – the Sarasota and Charlotte county portion and the inland areas. The Sarasota and Charlotte county portions is typical of southwest Florida – lots of WASP retirees and has been consistently republican for 60-odd years. Further inland are the few parts of South Florida that haven’t been settled by outsiders and still have somewhat of a “southern” feel to it. No Incumbent lives here, but Tom Rooney may run here since this is pretty similar to his district. Safe R.
2008 Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain
20th District Tom Rooney R-Okeechobee
Comments: The 20th district is the Treasure Coast district. Most of the district is pretty republican except for St Lucie county, which keeps it winnable for democrats. Rooney lists his residence in Okeechobee which is in the district but much of his seat is in the 19th. Tilt R in open seat.
2008 Results: 49.6 Obama, 50.4 McCain
21st District Curt Clawson R-Fort Meyers
Comments: The Fort Meyers area has grown enough that it can now have its own district. Lee County has always been republican though not as republican as it was circa 1952-1988. The district’s congressman, Curt Clawson, was elected in a 2014 special election, after Trey Radel resigned when it was discovered cocaine was being shipped to his house. Clawson, like Radel, is a tea party type and should be safe.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain
28th District DW Schultz D-Weston
Comments: This is sort of a leftovers seat in South Florida with a lot of federally protected property. The key parts of the district are western Broward county, Monroe county and Naples. Naples is the most republican part of the district and not unlike Fort Meyers. The Broward county portion isn’t as dem as other parts of the county, but the most dem part of the district. Monroe county is a swing county divided between gays/bohemians in Key West and republican retirees in the other parts of the county. Debbie Wasserman Schultz lives here but obviously couldn’t win here so I see Mario Diaz-Balart running here since he’s represented a lot of this area before. Safe R.
2008 Results: 47.8 Obama, 52.2 McCain
South Florida:
22nd District Ted Deutch (Sienna) D-Boca Raton
Comments: This is a condo-heavy district stretching from Lake Worth to Boca Raton and from the ocean to Loxahatchee. One of the key differences between the voting behavior of the retirees in Broward/Palm Beach and the rest of the state is where the people are from. Broward and Palm Beach counties did initially vote like Southwest Florida but in the 1970s, there was a large influx of jews from Miami which swung the counties leftward. It’s not just jews necessarily but people from the northeast in general. The remaining part of the state is mostly (obviously overgeneralizing) midwestern WASP types. Ted Deutch, despite the fact that he’s younger than a lot of his constituents, shares the profile as he’s a jew from Pennsylvania. His committee assignments are similar to that of former congressman Howard Berman – Foreign Affairs: where he has a pro-AIPAC voting record; and Judiciary – where he lines up with the liberals on culture war type issues. He could chair either committee in the future. Safe D.
2008 Results: 63.5 Obama, 36.5 McCain
23rd District (Aquamarine) No Incumbent
Comments: This district is pretty similar to Deutch’s district. There’s no incumbent here but Debbie Wasserman-Schultz probably runs here as its the whiter part of Broward county. Safe D.
2008 results: 63.9 Obama, 36.1 McCain
24th District (Indigo) No Incumbent
Comments: Among the Caucasian voters in the district, its probably pretty similar to the 22nd and 23rd districts, but it has a larger black and hispanic population which makes it the second most democratic district in the state. He lives just outside the district but it would make sense that Alcee Hastings would run here since it has a semi-large (29%) black population. I think he has a good chance of losing renomination or just retiring based on his corruption (which goes back to before he was in congress) and age in general (nearing 80). Safe D.
2008 Results: 70.2 Obama, 29.8 McCain
25th District (Pale Violet Red) Frederica Wilson D-Miami; Alcee Hastings D-Miramar
Comments: This is mostly northern Dade county which is where much of the black population lives, and some of Broward county. The district has the largest (37%) black population of any Florida district and not surprisingly is the state’s most democratic. Both Wilson and Hastings live here but I think Hastings runs in the 24th. Safe D.
2008 Results: 74.6 Obama, 25.4 McCain
26th District (Gray) IR Lehtinen R-Miami, Mario Diaz-Balart R-Miami, Carlos Curbelo R-Miami
Comments: This is the heart of Miami with the mansions, the artesian wells (which are actually in coral gables as is the u), the causeway and the airport. This is a heavily cuban district (70% hispanic) and the election results here are skewed by the small black population in the northern part of the seat. The cubans leaned or lean republican due to fierce anticommunism but with the exception of Rubio, many of them are not terribly conservative and more like NY Rs – machine guys with ties to sketchy outsiders (think Tony Montana). Three incumbents live here but I think only IRL runs here because it’s somewhat harder for a republican to win this seat and she would have the best chance. Lean R with IRL, Lean D without.
2008 Results: 55.3 Obama, 44.7 McCain
27th District (Spring Green) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the more suburban part of Dade county, stretching along the turnpike. It’s also heavily hispanic (70%) and the more republican part of Dade county. This is Curbelo’s seat but IRL might run here if she doesn’t want to run in the 26th (though she might retire in this scenario). Given the volatility of the hispanic population in Florida, I’d peg this as a tossup.
2008 Results: 51.7 Obama, 48.3 McCain
North Carolina
1st District No Incumbent
Comments: The 1st is the outer banks district, which is a popular tourist area and includes places like Kitty Hawk. This is a bucolic district where the pace of things are slower. The biggest cash crop in these areas is tobacco. This part of the state is very ancestrally democrat so don’t let the PVI fool you. It’s possible Walter Jones Jr could run here but otherwise this is an open seat and should be a tossup.
2008 Election Results: 48.3 Obama, 51.7 McCain
2nd District GK Butterfield D-Wilson, Walter Jones R-Farmville
Comments: This part of North Carolina is and always has been the district with the largest black population (the seat is 37% black) and used to give the democrats Soviet type numbers. The district is still a predominately rural, tobacco type district but the Raleigh metro area is starting to move into this district. Two congressman live here but Jones likely runs in the 3rd. GK Butterfield, the incumbent, likely loses the primary to a more traditional North Carolina democrat. Tilt D with Butterfield, Likely D without.
2008 Election Results: 54 Obama 46 McCain
3rd District Renee Elmers R-Dunn David Rouzer R-McGee Crossroads
Comments: The district kind of follows I-40 from Wilmington to a point near Raleigh. This is a military heavy district as it includes Camp Lejuene. Two congressmembers live here and a third is also likely to run in what is the only solidly republican district in eastern NC. Walter Jones, however, could run in the 1st, which his father represented. Elmers could run in the 2nd or 5th but that too might be a bridge too far. Same for Rouzer who might have trouble in the 7th. Both Elmers and Jones are both idiosyncratic and Rouzer is a backbencher. I would probably give Jones more of an advantage since he’s been there longer and has represented more of the district. But its possible Jones retires It should be close to a safe R seat.
2008 Election Results: 43.7 Obama, 56.3 McCain
4th District George Holding R-Raleigh
Comments: This is the Raleigh based district. Raleigh is the state capital and sits right on the dividing line between the coastal plain and the piedmont. The district has also trended dem as George W Bush won this seat as late as 2000. In any event Holding is pretty much screwed. I’m not sure who the democrats would run but I’d put this as Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.5 Obama, 41.5 McCain
5th District No Incumbent
Comments: This is a “disguised district”. While it looks like a typical small town textile district, 69% of the population lives in the Wake, Durham and Orange county portions, known as “the research triangle”. The creative class economy has attracted people from all over, making the 5th the fastest growing district in the state. The most notable landmark in the district is UNC which is a major university (and very liberal) and with a reputable basketball team. No incumbent lives here, but it should go dem. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.9 Obama, 42.1 McCain
6th District David Price D-Durham
Comments: The 6th district stretches from Durham to Greensboro and then north to the Virginia border. Durham is a lot different than the rest of the district as it’s a strongly dem college town (and with a large black population). The rest of the district is classic piedmont country, dominated by textile, tobacco and furniture. The incumbent is David Price who was a former Duke professor. He is one of the dems who lost in 1994 but won in 1996. He is now the No 6 dem on the house appropriations committee and ranking member of the public housing subcommittee. But he is also 75 and will probably retire soon. Not sure who would replace him, but the district should remain dem.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain
7th District No Incumbent
Comments: This district stretches from the Atlantic coast to the sand hills, along the South Carolina border. The biggest city is Fayetteville which is a military town with nearby Fort Bragg and sort of has a reputation as being seedy (I’ve heard it called fayettenam). The district also has a relatively large native American population (8%). Rouzer could run here but I don’t think he could win and runs in the 3rd instead. As for the democrats, Kissell could run here but other than that I don’t know. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 53.5 Obama, 46.5 McCain
8th District Richard Hudson R-Concord
Comments: This is a mix between piedmont textile country and the charlotte exurbs. The district is mostly republican except for a few areas in the far eastern part of the district. Richard Hudson, who I think barely lives in the district should be pretty safe here.
2008 Election Results: 40.3 Obama, 59.7 McCain
9th District Robert Pittenger R-Charlotte
Comments: Charlotte is the largest city in the state and unlike other piedmont cities never had much of a textile or furniture industry. The main industry here is banking. It also started voting republican earlier than other parts of the state, electing a republican congressman as early as 1952. This part of NC has experienced a kind of political parabola starting out dem, then going republican and then going back to the democrats. In fact, despite being the most dem district in the state, GW Bush may have won it in 2000. This all bodes badly for Bob Pittenger, who had a tough race in 2012. He’s already 67 so he probably just retires. A likely dem nominee would be Anthony Foxx.
2008 Election Results: 62.8 Obama, 37.2 McCain
10th District No Incumbent
Comments: The 10th district is the I-85 district, going between Charlotte and the Triad. Like the 8th it’s a mix of piedmont small manufacturing cities and charlotte exurbs. Lexington, on the NE corner is supposedly the barbeque capital of the world. The 10th is another district that has been voting republican longer than the rest of the state and should go to a republican. It’s an open seat though so I’m not sure who it should go to. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain
11th District Alma Adams D-Greensboro Mark Walker R-Greensboro
Comments: This is the Greensboro-High Point district. This is a typical piedmont city with typical piedmont industries. It’s generally a middle-of-the road district and two incumbents living here are too far right or too far left to win. A more new-dem/blue-dog could probably easily win here. Otherwise hard to tell what happens. Tossup if these two run against each other.
2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain
12th District No Incumbent
Comments: There are two components to this district – the Forsyth portion and the rest of the state. Forsyth County (Winston-Salem) is a tobacco-town and also home to Wake Forest University. Winston-Salem (Forsyth is almost 40% of district) has been trending dem as of late and will be the basis of any dem victory here. The rest of the district is 64% McCain and has been voting republican for awhile, some of it going back to the founding of the party. Although she doesn’t live here, this would be Virginia Foxx’s district. Foxx had a tough race or two in 2006 and 2008 and with an R+10 district could come close to losing. Lean R for now, safer without Foxx (who’s old and may retire anyways)
2008 Election Results: 44 Obama, 56 McCain
13th District Patrick McHenry R-Cherryville, Virginia Foxx R-Banner Elk
Comments: The 13th is where the piedmont meets the mountains and home to a lot of furniture manufacturing companies. Some of this area hasn’t elected a democrat to congress since the 60s and this is the most republican district in the state. Both Foxx and McHenry live here but this is clearly McHenry’s seat. The seat should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 38.2 Obama, 61.8 McCain
14th District Mark Meadows R-Cashiers
Comments: The 14th is surprisingly moderate for a mountain district. I would assume it would vote more like Eastern Tennessee or North Georgia. Even removing counterculture-heavy Asheville doesn’t explain it. In any event, Meadows doesn’t seem like an impressive incumbent and could lose even if Schuler doesn’t run. Tilt R.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain
Alaska At-Large Don Young R-Fort Yukon
Comments: This is one of several at-large states covered in this series which effectively draws itself and obviously can’t be gerrymandered. Don Young is anything but young as he is 82 and been in congress half his life. He is a typical Alaska republican and is borderline corrupt, but I don’t think the Alaska voters really care that much about it. He has had close calls before (like in 2008) but unless he’s actually charged with something (I guess he’s Dapper Don), he should be ok. I do expect him to retire soon. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 38.9 Obama, 61.1 McCain