RRH readers know full well how contentious redistricting is, particularly in states with divided control of government, and even more so when the state is losing a district. Throw in ambitious legislators, the prospect of an open seat, some backstabbing and profanity, an ambivalent governor, and good old fashioned racial politics, and you’ve got the mess that was Missouri this spring. In the end, legislative Republicans overcame several internal differences, largely due to personal opportunism, to produce a map that was vetoed by the governor but overridden with help from a few “bandit” Democrats. And when the music stopped, Rep. Russ Carnahan was the man without a district:
Below the jump, visuals of all eight new districts, including where everyone’s old territory went, partisan numbers, and who, other than Carnahan, drew the short end of the stick.
Notes: The purple area of the map represents the old district, the green represents the new district, and the overlapping purple and green is the area that the district retained. PVI’s were calculated using Obama/McCain numbers. The numbers for MO-05 and MO-06 are only estimates because Jackson County does not make any detailed data available.
MO-01: Lacy Clay (D-St. Louis) 47% White, 45% Black
D+28 (old: D+27)
Clay, for a variety of reasons, may be one of the least liked people in Washington, and his behind-the-scenes support for the Republican map was essential in overriding Nixon’s veto. He is a second-generation career politician who essentially inherited his seat from his father, CBC co-founder Bill Clay, and is known for putting racial interests ahead of partisan interests. In this case, Clay cedes swingy suburbs in western St. Louis County and gains the southern half of St. Louis City (which is predominantly white, working-class, and very Democratic), cutting Carnahan’s base out from under him. The new 1st is 70% Clay’s and 30% Carnahan’s, and the majority-black primary electorate would make this all but academic. St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay is also considering a primary run, in response to Clay’s role in redistricting, but a second white candidate in the race would only aid Lacy’s return to Congress.
MO-02: Todd Akin (R-Town and Country) or OPEN
R+6 (old: R+9)
This suburban seat was the main point of contention in the legislature, and the reason that a deal almost didn’t happen. The incumbent is Todd Akin, who has said he will decide on a Senate bid by the end of the month and is considered almost certain to be in. With the prospect of an open seat looming, a number of Republican legislators tried to draw their home bases into the seat, including St. Sen. Scott Rupp of St. Charles County and St. Rep. John Diehl of St. Louis County, and the entire process almost collapsed over the placement of a dozen precincts in St. Charles. In the end, Diehl got his way and Rupp did not, and the seat is more southern and less safe than its predecessor (although still not bad at R+6.) None of the legislators may go to Congress, however, as former Ambassador Ann Wagner and 2010 MO-03 candidate Ed Martin are both already in the race, and Wagner’s strong fundraising capacity makes her the nominal frontrunner. The totals show that Akin’s old seat is only 61% of the new seat, while 28% comes from Carnahan and the balance from Clay.
MO-03: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth)
R+11 (old: R+9)
Luetkemeyer played a large role in holding up the redistricting process, as the sophomore seemed to be balking at adding a large amount of territory in metro St. Louis. After looking at the map, you can’t really blame him: only 38% of the new 3rd comes from his old 9th, which is supposedly the base for the district. Luetkemeyer loses all the friendly rural territory in the north, and adds a lot of unfamiliar population in the suburbs and exurbs of St. Louis. His district supplants the 2nd as the primary seat for wealthy St. Charles County, and also includes a large stretch of Jefferson County in the south that had been in Carnahan’s district. Luetkemeyer will be aided by the addition of Jefferson City, which is more in line with his current seat, and also got his way in dropping Columbia and avoiding St. Louis County. A full 33% of this district comes from the old 2nd (almost as much as from the old 9th), while 16% is from the 3rd and 13% is from the 4th. Unfamiliar to over 60% of the electorate, Luetkemeyer could be vulnerable in the primary to a suburban Republican like Rupp.
MO-04: Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville)
R+10 (old: R+14)
Hartzler’s district is still a slice of rural west-central Missouri, but it has shifted around quite a bit to accommodate her more senior colleagues. First, she needed to drop the northernmost counties in her old district to make room for the new 5th, and also loses Jefferson City (which is pretty red by state capital standards.) These areas are replaced with some territory to the northeast, which includes the annoying large, light-blue college town of Columbia. Hartzler is helped by the addition of the rest of Cass County (her home base), but she can’t be thrilled about only having represented 61% of this district before. A full 28%, all in the Columbia area, is from the 9th, and the other 13% comes from the Kansas City area districts. The district drops 4 points to R+10 (the worst shift of any GOP seat), but barring the second coming of Ike Skelton, this will be a safely red seat.
MO-05: Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City)
estimated new: D+11 (old: D+10)
Like Clay, Cleaver played along with Republicans, directing black Democrats in his district to vote for the override and in exchange securing his own safety in both the primary and general. The logical step here would have been to place all of Jackson County (Kansas City and its suburbs) in one district, but that would have opened the door to a primary challenge from the suburbs, where there is a Democratic bench waiting for a shot at this seat. Thus, Cleaver bypasses much of outer Jackson County and instead adds some rural counties to the east, which do not provide any base sort of a base for a primary challenger. He also trades his portion of deep-red Cass County for Democratic precincts in Clay County. In total, Cleaver has represented 72% of this district before, and his new constituents come in equal parts from the 4th and 6th.
MO-06: Sam Graves (R-Tarkio)
estimated new: R+10 (old: R+7)
Previously a northwestern seat, the 6th expands to take in the entire northern third of the state of Missouri, running from Illinois to Kansas. But don’t let the map to you: the district’s population base remains in the Kansas City suburbs, and Graves has represented a full 75% of the district before. The new territory in the northeast is sufficiently red and sparsely populated that Graves’ biggest worry will be the mileage he will put on his car traversing this sprawling beast. It’s harder to see the changes in greater Kansas City, but Graves has added some of the most Republican parts of Jackson County in exchange for giving Democratic-leaning areas of Clay to Cleaver. This is responsible for the three point jump in PVI, the biggest positive change in any district.
MO-07: Billy Long (R-Springfield)
R+16 (old: R+17)
If you followed Missouri redistricting closely, you probably heard about 7 of the 8 new districts, and read comments or concerns from 8 of the 9 incumbents. Which makes it easy to forget that anonymous freshman Billy Long, a former auctioneer, probably got the best deal of anyone. He is the only Missouri Congressman to keep 100% of his old territory, adding bits and pieces in the north and east to get up to the population threshold. Southwestern Missouri is home to the Ozark Highlands, is considered part of the “Bible Belt” and is the most culturally Southern part of the state. Accordingly, the 7th is the most Republican seat in MO and completely safe for Long. I don’t know what to take from this: that it pays to keep your mouth shut during heated arguments, or that it’s a great thing to be crammed into a well-populated corner of a state. Probably the latter.
MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau)
R+15 (old: R+15)
Emerson’s the dean of the delegation and an Appropriations cardinal of the majority party, so it was never in doubt that she would get the district she wanted. And indeed, she is at least as safe in the new 8th as Long is next door in the 7th, despite taking on some of Carnahan’s old territory. The areas Emerson adds in the northeast–Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve Counties–are blue collar and lean Democratic, but they are swamped by conservative territory to the south, including the Congresswoman’s strong base in Cape Girardeau. In total, Emerson’s old district accounts for 86% of the new 8th population. If you ever question the power of seniority, compare that to the less comfortable figures for Hartzler (61%) and Luetkemeter (38%.)
MO-“09”: Russ Carnahan (D-St. Louis)
formerly D+7
As you know, this is the one that disappeared, and this map shows exactly how gloomy the outlook is for Carnahan:
That’s the outline of his old district, which has been divided in four: blue for Clay (where 35% of Carnahan’s territory ends up), green for Akin (33%), cyan for Luetkemeyer (19%), and lilac for Emerson (13%.) The plurality of Carnahan’s constituents are in Clay’s district, which is also the only of the four likely to elect a Democrat, but he would face a difficult primary in a 45% black district against the king of racial politics. MO-02 may be the better option, as there is a good amount of Democratic leaning-territory in southeastern St. Louis County and could be a messy GOP primary, but at R+6 it’s right at the edge of what Democrats can win in a good year in the suburbs.