The title here is pretty self-explanatory. Currently, the Land of Lincoln, Reagan, and Obama has 19 districts that resulted from a fairly GOP-favorable 2002 incumbent protection plan. That plan was designed to send 10 Republicans and 9 Democrats to Congress, and that number moved all the way to 13D-6R before settling at 11R-8D after 2010, with Republicans controlling all their intended seats plus the failed Democratic vote sink that is IL-17. Now, the state loses a seat, so the math will change again.

After Governor Quinn held on by a few thousand votes in November, Democrats are poised to gerrymander the map this time around, and SSP has floated several options from 12-6 (serious) to 14-4 (probably a dummymander.) Now that we’ve seen a Republican map and are likely to see a Democratic map, I decided to try the third option: a commission style, fair districts map that aims to keep communities of interest intact and minimize county splitting. Here’s the result, details on the other side.

Chicagoland

IL-01-blue: Bobby Rush (D-Chicago)

VRA: 51% Black (note: all VRA states are VAP, not total) SAFE D

I’m not certain Rush lives here, but this is an elongated version of his old district. Still based in the South Side, the 1st lost so many people over the past 10 years that it is forced to expand to the southwestern suburbs of Cook County and up into the Loop (that’s Downtown, for you non-Chicagonians.) President Obama lives here, when he’s not at the White House or catching some rays in Hawaii.

IL-02-green: Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-Chicago), Debbie Halvorson

VRA: 52% Black SAFE D

Jackson’s 2nd also suffered population loss, and there was no choice but to push it into eastern Will County. Fortunately, the Far South Side has enough African-Americans to keep this district compact and VRA compliant.

IL-03-purple: Danny Davis (D-Chicago)

VRA: 50% Black SAFE D

With all the population loss in Chicago, it was very difficult to maintain three majority-black seats, and this district now has to stretch from Davis’ base in the West Side all the way down to the South Side to find enough African-American voters. It just barely gets over the threshold, and this district may have to be eliminated in 2020.

IL-04-red: Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago)

VRA: 57% Hispanic SAFE D

Now this is much, much better looking than the old 4th. It is forced to take in even more of the Southwest Side than before, because of the large nook created by the new 3rd. Originally, it looked like there would be 2 Hispanic-majority seats in Chicago, but the city has lost too much population for that to be feasible. It might be possible in 2020, especially if Davis’ seat is eliminated then.

IL-05-yellow: Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)

SAFE D

The only district located completely within Chicago, this 61% white seat is made up mostly of the residential North Side. Also includes the big-bucks Gold Coast and the heavily Hispanic Northwest Side.

IL-06-teal: Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) vs. Randy Hulgren (R-Winfield)

LIKELY R

A healthy blob of Republican suburbia for Roskam, who recently joined House leadership. This is essentially DuPage County, historically a GOP stronghold, minus Naperville, plus some outer suburbs of Cook. I call this Likely R because DuPage is less Republican on the presidential level now, and Obama ran up huge numbers everywhere in Chicagoland. But Roskam is on solid ground here. (Hultgren, for his part, lives here, but would run in my 14th.)

IL-09-sky: Jan Schkowsky (D-Chicago)

SAFE D

The 9th pushes further into Chicago and retains the college town of Evanston and a couple other suburbs like Des Plaines. Plenty safe for the very, very liberal Jan S.

IL-10-pink: Bob Dold (R-Kenilworth) Dan Seals (heh)

LEANS R

I know what you’re thinking: Dold’s district is entirely in Cook now, and he gets safer? Yes, because counterintuitively, Dold lost the Lake County portion in 2010 but won because of the big margin he ran up in this Republican-leaning part of Cook. Swingy areas are added from Walsh’s and Roskam’s current districts to create a compact, moderate, Obama-voting but otherwise GOP-leaning district that may even be Likely R if Dold can settle himself in.

IL-13-tan: Judy Biggert (R-Hinsdale) vs. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs)

LIKELY R

Don’t worry about Lipinski, as there’s barely any of his old district in here (his seat is eliminated and re-emerges as IL-07 in Lake County.) This district is dominated by the mega-suburb of Naperville, which is not the fortress it once was but is still proudly Republican. Also included are several smaller suburbs in DuPage, Will, and Cook, most of which were in Biggert’s old district. This would be competitive when the Congresswoman retires.

IL-14-army fatigues: OPEN Bill Foster

TOSSUP/TILTS R

This is where the fair districts begin to hurt the Republicans, as the new 14th combines the highly gerrymandered old 11th and 14th. Neither Randy Hultgren nor Adam Kinzinger lives in this district, and it would be a lot of new territory for either of them. Complicating matters is the presence of ex-Rep. Bill Foster, who does live here but is unknown to the southern part of the district (which is dominated by the other two mega-suburbs, Joliet and Aurora.) Hultgren is the likeliest candidate here, and starts as the favorite due to the general Republican lean of the area. Certainly a tough district though.

Northern Suburbs/Exurbs

IL-07-pink: OPEN Melissa Bean

LEANS D

This is perhaps the most evenly balanced district in Illinois, voting for Bush at his national margin in 2004 and giving 56% to Obama, which is pretty swingy given the home-state effect. Lake County has a long history of sending moderate Republicans to Congress, although I give the slight edge to Democrats here because of the presence of ex-Rep. Melissa Bean, who held down a tougher district for 6 years. Mark Kirk also lives here and would have cruised here if he hadn’t been elected to the Senate.

IL-08-indigo: Joe Walsh (R-McHenry)

LIKELY R

Walsh loses the toughest portions of his district in Lake and Cook, and adds some rural areas as well as a few light-blue suburbs in Kane. Overall, this is a significant upgrade for Walsh, and if his impressive start to his term is any indication, he’ll be fine here. Then again, Walsh’s 2010 campaign was a bit of an adventure, so he has some work to do to prove he’s a legitimate fundraiser and campaigner.

Northwest Illinois

IL-16-lime green: Donald Manzullo (R-Egan)

SAFE R

Another district Obama won, but where Democrats have no presence at the local level, outside of the city of Rockford. This district went strongly for Bush and contains the only two McCain counties in northern Illinois. It loses its Chicago exurbs and picks up some rural counties from Hultgren’s district, becoming a true outstate seat. This is safe for Manzullo but would be at least a race when he retires.

IL-17-deep purple: Bobby Schilling (R-Rock Island) vs. Aaron Schock (R-Peoria) Phil Hare

TOSSUP

Here’s the map’s only real battle royale, as neither Republican incumbent has another place to run. The district contains Peoria and the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, and the smaller counties between them. The primary favorite might actually be Schilling, who represents more of the district and has Tea Party support, although Schock has deeper connection on the Hill. Either way, the district is a tough hold, as it’s hard to find a place McCain did well here. The PVI is probably close to the D+3 of Schilling’s current district, which would at least give him
a shot in 2012, especially if Hare is his opponent.

Downstate

IL-11-yellow green: Adam Kinzinger (R-Kanakee) vs. Tim Johnson (R-Urbana)

LIKELY R

There’s actually as much Johnson territory here as there is Kinzinger, but I think TJ would happily rid himself of Urbana-Champaign and move south, avoiding a primary fight. That would leave Kinzinger in a district balanced between medium cities and rural areas which appears pretty safe, although you can never be certain when a large college campus (the University of Illinois, in this case) is involved.

IL-12-light blue: Jerry Costello (D-Bellevile) vs. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville)

LIKELY D

Shimkus would almost certainly move 15 miles east to friendlier turf, leaving Costello to run in this very clean-looking St. Louis area district in the southwest corner. However, this part of the state trended Republican in 2008 even with Obama atop the ballot, and the addition of the Republican areas of Madison County leaves this district at about D+2. If Shimkus was feeling lucky, he could run against Costello and might actually have a shot.

IL-15-orange: OPEN

SAFE R

IL-18-yellow: OPEN

SAFE R

Hate to rush this ending, but all that’s left are two giant chunks of rural Illinois goodness that are the safest districts for Republicans in the state. Because this is a fair districts map, and the Congressmen live in cities rather than farm counties, neither the 15th or the 18th has an incumbent. Shimkus’ territory is almost evenly split between the two, but he’s likely to take the 18th and leave the 15th for Johnson. Alternatively, there’s a lot of Aaron Schock territory in the 18th, so you could see him move out of Peoria and run there, avoiding a primary with Schilling.  

I had originally intended to save this map for later on, in part because the redistricting process here will be affected by the pending Brown vs. State of Florida lawsuit. Yet there has been a lot of discussion and speculation over Sunshine State this past week, and I decided to share my take on what is perhaps the most complex redistricting puzzle Republicans face this year. Consider:

1. Florida voters passed an amendment last November aimed at preventing gerrymandering. It requires districts to be compact and respect county lines wherever possible, and prohibits mapmakers from drawing districts to favor a party or an incumbent.

2. Reps. Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) filed a lawsuit challenging the amendment, under the premise that racial minorities do not always live in compact areas, and a mandate for compact districts will reduce minority representation. Pending that lawsuit, Gov. Scott has temporarily blocked implementation of the new law.

3. Florida has several of the ugliest districts in the nation, including the VRA-protected 23rd, the minority-influence 3rd, and partisan gerrymanders such as the 4th, 6th, 8th, 11th, and 22nd. Most of these lines will need to change drastically.

4. The state is due to gain two new districts. At least one will need to be located in Central Florida, which has a fast-growing and Democratic-voting Hispanic population.

5. Republicans have several incumbents in marginal seats, including freshmen Dan Webster, Allen West, and Sandy Adams as well as veterans Bill Young and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

6. Contrary to some redistricting laws, the new amendment does not establish a bipartisan commission. The Republican legislature will still be in charge of drawing the maps, and while by the letter of the law they cannot draw districts that explicitly favor the GOP, they will look for every opportunity possible to aid their incumbents.

Thus the map:

And away we go:

North Florida

FL-01-blue: Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla) SAFE R

McCain 68, Obama 32

You can barely see the first on the detail map, but it’s crammed into the westernmost portion of the conservative panhandle, taking up Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and part of Holmes County. This is the safest Republican seat in Florida.

FL-02-green: Steve Southerland (R-Panama City) LIKELY R

McCain 52, Obama 46

Southerland’s district condenses and pushes west, now taking in all of heavily Democratic Leon County (Tallahassee.) This knock his McCain percentage down by two points, but this area of Florida is trending rapidly Republican as conservative whites flee the Democratic party. Consider this: McCain performed exactly as well as Bush did in 2004, despite this district being nearly a quarter black.

FL-03-purple: Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) TOSSUP/TILT R TAKEOVER

Gee, I wonder why Brown is suing to block implementation of this law? The amendment more or less dictates that there will be one district entirely within Duval County (51-49 McCain, 58-42 Bush), and her current 3rd is not VRA protected. In addition, it is impossible to draw a compact majority-minority district anywhere in Northern Florida. Thus, we end up with this Republican-leaning swing seat that is 63% white, 23% black VAP. Democrats would be best served by nominating someone other than Brown, while Republicans have a strong bench here (I had erroneously suggested Jennifer Carroll, who is in fact from Clay County.)

FL-04-red: Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville) SAFE R

Crenshaw actually lives just outside these line in the new 3rd (the law does not allow incumbent homes to be considered), but most of his old territory is here, along with a few more conservative counties in the north central. The second-safest Republican seat after Miller’s, and plenty of incentive for Crenshaw to move 5 miles west.

FL-06-teal: Cliff Stearns (R-Ocala) LEANS R

McCain 50.4, Obama 49.6 (margin of 3200 votes)

Stearns is a loser on this map, as he drops from a safe R+10 to a more tenuous R+4. This district is about as compact and fair as they get: Democratic stronghold Alachua County (Gainesville) is balanced by Putnam, Marion, and Levy, with a single Volusia precinct thrown on for population balance. This district will be more Republican in non-presidential years, as the older white population of the three red counties turns out at a high enough rate to drown out Gainesville unless Obama is on the ballot.

FL-07-grey: open (John Mica) SAFE R

McCain 54, Obama 46

Explosive growth in the Jacksonville exurbs and Daytona Beach in the 1990’s forced this district to be separated from Orlando in  2001, although the legislature included an arm into Orange County to include Mica’s home. They won’t be able to do so this time, so Mica will have to move if he wants to represent the people he does now. Somehow this manages to get a point safer, despite taking in more of swingy Volusia County.

Central Florida

FL-05-yellow: Richard Nugent (R-Spring Hill) SAFE R

McCain 54, Obama 44

This one was easy: Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, and almost all of Pasco. Heavy migration of retirees has transformed this region from swing territory to a Republican stronghold.

FL-08-indigo: Daniel Webster (R-Winter Park) LIKELY R

I don’t know the partisan figures here (because so much of the district is in politically variable Orange County), but this is a huge upgrade for Webster. The new district is 10 points whiter (70% VAP) and has shed the problematic areas of downtown Orlando that in 2008 gave us the gift of Alan Grayson while keeping the conservative areas around Disney World and 56% McCain Lake County. The finger sticking into central Orange is actually a product of the new law: this area needs to stay in an Orange County district, but is too high in population to go into the 24th or new 27th. This is good news for Webster, since it includes his home in Winter Park.

FL-24-purple: Sandy Adams (R-Orlando) LEAN R (?)

I’m less sure about this district than any other, as it contains parts of four counties and is the undoing of a Republican gerrymander. The good news for Adams is that she loses Democratic areas of Volusia County and gains a little more of Republican Broward. The bad news for her is that she is forced to give up her red precincts in northern Orange County. The wild card is Seminole County, which leans Republican and is now entirely within the 24th. I don’t know the partisan data for the new Seminole precincts, which came mostly from Mica’s 7th, but Adams did represent a good portion of them in the State House. Overall, I’ll guess that this is a wash, and gave McCain ~50% of the vote.

FL-27-sea green: NEW DISTRICT, SAFE D

VAP: 40% White, 31% Hispanic, 21% Black

Here’s the majority-minority district that everyone is expecting to see in urban Orlando. It could be even more compact than this, but I expect Republicans to test the law a little around the edges, in this case working the angle of maximizing minority representation in this district. With all the money Alan Grayson is able to raise from the netroots, this district is probably his if he wants it (imagine him and Dan Webster in Congress together!) Corrine Brown lives in Jacksonville but currently represents the black areas of the new district, and could conceivably also run here.

South-Central Florida

FL-09-sky blue: Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) SAFE R

Somewhat easier on the eyes than the old 9th but politically similar, if not slightly more Republican. The base remains northern Pinellas County, which has sent members of the Bilirakis family to Congress for nearly 30 years and should continue t
o re-elect the noncontroversial Gus.

FL-10-pink: Bill Young (R-Indian Shores) LIKELY R (with Young), TOSSUP/TILT D (open seat)

Bill Young has been around for a long time and is not in much danger if he chooses to seek re-election (although this district is now considerably more Democratic), but this will be a tough hold for Republicans when he retires. The new law forces the 10th to take in the black areas of St. Petersburg and cede some of the Republican towns in northern Pinellas. This new form probably gave Obama 55% of the vote.

FL-11-lime: Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) SAFE D

49% White

Has to meander a little bit to stay majority-minority but remains focused on the city of Tampa. I attempted to keep as much of the district west of I-75 as possible.

FL-12-medium blue: Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) LIKELY R

Southeastern Hillsborough and Northern Polk are combined in a district that traces I-4. This is one of many Florida districts that McCain only won by a small margin but that Democrats do not normally make a serious run at, although Ross didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his 7-point win in 2010. If history is a guide, his margins will improve as he builds seniority.

FL-13-tan: Vern Buchanan (R-Longboat Key) LIKELY R (with Buchanan), LEAN R (open)

McCain 51, Obama 48

This was easy–Manatee and Sarasota Counties are just about the perfect size for a district. Both counties voted by a narrow margin for McCain, which means Buchanan is probably safe here. If he decides to run for Senate, Republicans would start with a slight edge in the race to replace him.

FL-14-grey: Connie Mack (R-Fort Myers) SAFE R

McCain 55, Obama 44

Senate non-candidate Connie Mack IV is safe in this sleepy corner of Florida, dominated by retirees. Lee County is the main player in this district, although it spills over into Charlotte and Collier to get up to population.

FL-15-orange: Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) LEAN R

The 15th presents the same dilemma that NV-02 did: it is a moderately Republican seat that is forced to shed its most Republican areas. The big problem here is Osceola County, which dramatically swung from a 5-point Bush win to a 20-point Obama win, due in large part to the growing Puerto Rican population in Kissimmee. I assume Republicans will leave it with Posey, rather than give it to the new 26th and risk a Democrat winning that. That forces the 15th to give up half of Indian River, and move closer to a 50% McCain district. I assume Posey can hold this, but this is one to watch.

FL-26-army fatgues: NEW SEAT, LIKELY R

The second new district is a product of two factors. First of all, Charlotte County has exploded in population over the past decade, and is the obvious starting point for a new seat. Secondly, the Florida Heartland is broken up and attached to several coastal seats under the current map. As the coastal districts grow, they are forced to pull out of the heartland, and it makes sense to combine all these rural counties into one district. Regrettably, I needed to go to the east coast to pick up the final 200k for the new 26th. St. Lucie County is the only source of Democratic votes here, and the real drama would likely be between the primary between a Port Charlotte and Fort Pierce Republican.

Palm Beach & Broward

FL-23-light blue: open SAFE D

50.1% black VAP

We start here because this is the centerpiece of the South Florida map. Unlike the 3rd, the 23rd is VRA-protected, and it is possible to draw a reasonably compact black-majority seat in Palm Beach and Broward Counties. This district connects Fort Lauderdale to Palm Beach Gardens by a narrow strip of land along I-95, isolating a coastal strip to its east. There are other ways of drawing a black-majority seat, but this is the cleanest, best for nearby Republicans, and also draws out Alcee Hastings. I’d say that’s 3 for 3.

FL-16-green: Tom Rooney (R-Tequesta) SAFE R

Remember that coastal strip of Palm Beach and Broward, isolated by the VRA 23rd? That also happens to be the only area of Republican strength in these two counties, and it has nowhere to go except in Rooney’s 16th, which is forced to give up its western leg. Anchored in R+10 Martin County, the 16th drops down like a fishing lure to grab all the coastal Republicans that strongly supported Allen West in 2010. It’s not exactly compact, but he VRA is a federal law, and this is a side effect of that.

FL-19-pea soup: Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton) SAFE D

FL-20-pink: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) SAFE D

After the 16th and 23rd are taken care of, it’s easy to draw a pair of Democratic districts in inland Palm Beach and Broward, as the leftovers of each county are each the ideal size for a congressional seat. Allen West lives in the Broward district (the 20th) and would probably run against Rooney in the 16th if he wants to stay in the House.

Miami-Dade

FL-17-purple: Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) vs. Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar) SAFE D

52% Black VAP

Florida’s other black majority seat is much easier to draw. Almost all of the territory is Wilson’s, so hopefully this is the end of Hastings’ career (he would probably run in the 23rd though.)

FL-18-yellow: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) LEAN R

64% Hispanic VAP

This is where the map got really difficult, as I had to keep things compact while also spreading the Hispanic population around enough to support three VRA districts and (covertly, of course) making sure that none of the districts slipped out from under their Republican incumbents. The 18th is the weakest of the three, as compactness rules force it to pull completely out of Miami (which, outside the black neighborhoods, is a GOP city) and eat some of the non-Cuban Hispanic areas of Dade. The Keys are also here, even though they fit culturally better in the 22nd. The good news is that Ros-Lehtinen is the strongest Republican in Dade County and will probably be able to hold this without issue. (Don’t worry about her Miami residence. The Diaz-Balart brothers lived in the 18th while representing the 21st and 25th, so residency isn’t a huge issue around here.)

FL-21-maroon: Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) SAFE R

84% Hispanic VAP

This might violate the VRA for being too Hispanic due to compactness (the old 21st is 77% Hispanic.) Most of Miami and Hialeah make this the safest of the three Dade districts for Republicans and for Mario, who now lives within his district’s lines. If the Brown lawsuit succeeds, this district would become less Hispanic and Republican, remaining safe for MDB but making Ros-Lehtinen and Rivera safer as well.

FL-22-brown: open, SAFE D

47% White, 38% Hispanic

West’s seat is replaced by a coastal Dade and Broward majority-minority seat. If the Brown lawsuit succeeds, this may become a 4th Hispanic majority seat, and Republicans would happily stuff it with all the non-Cuban Hispanics in southern Dade. For now, it starts in Fort Lauderdale, takes in Miami Beach, and then wraps around the four VRA seats in Dade to pick up some very diverse neighborhoods south of Miami.

FL-25-pink: David Rivera (R-Miami) SAFE R

60% Hispanic VAP

This could be the coolest district I’ve drawn. It contains almost all of Collier County, which is R+15 and chock full of conservative retirees from the Midwest. Combined, Collier and rural Hendry make up over half of the 25th. Yet it is still 60% Hispanic because of the overwhelmingly homogenous Cuban neighborhoods of western Dade. Rivera needs to go, and we’ve assumed that he will be primaried by another Cuban-American Republican. But could his successor come from Collier instead? And would the Dade voters support a Collier nominee? Even if they didn’t, Collier is Republican enough that it might not matter.

It’s been a while since the last map, but with 2010 data now available in 49 states (what if I want to draw Alaska too, though?), it’s full speed ahead. Wisconsin is the obvious place to stop next on the redistricting tour, given how we all acquainted ourselves with the political geography of the state last night (hands up if you had heard of Eau Claire County before.)

Republicans hold the trifecta here, pending recalls, and would be wise to draw an incumbent-protection map soon. This map aims to pack Democrats into three districts without making ridiculous-looking lines, as clean districts seem to be the historical norm in the Upper Midwest. Special attention was paid to Paul Ryan, the Most Valuable Republican from the Badger State.

Milwaukee area close-up:

WI-01-blue: Paul Ryan (R-Janesville)

Look at this one closely: Ryan keeps the core of his current district but loses the cities of Racine and Kenosha, which are the most Democratic areas he represents. I would have liked to pull him out of Rock County entirely as well, but he lives in Janesville so I had to keep half in the district. To replace the lost cities, Ryan adds significant portions of 62% McCain Waukesha County, which is the state’s Republican base, as well as light-red Jefferson County.

WI-02-green: Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

Packing Democrats means sending Baldwin west and creating this tidy-looking vote sink in lower Dairyland. The anchor of this district is the overwhelmingly liberal city of Leningrad Madison, which is the epicenter of the union protests. Baldwin will return to the House and continue to be one of the 10 most liberal members.

WI-03-purple: Ron Kind (D-La Crosse)

Ideally this map could have eliminated Kind, but that would have been a fool’s errand. This is another clean Democratic vote sink, combining upper Dairyland with the northern suburbs of Madison and the blue stronghold of Stevens Point, which was previously in WI-07. Stevens Point is the home of Julie Lassa and was one of the few areas where she beat Sean Duffy in 2010, so this map eliminates one potential opponent for him.

The other option for WI-03 was to send it up the Minnesota border to Superior, but I decided against it because: a. It looks much uglier. b. You can’t take much of the northwest without removing Duffy’s home from his district and c. The partisan numbers are the same as going to Stevens Point instead.

WI-04-red: Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee)

Here’s the only gerrymander and the linchpin of the map. Moore’s district lost people over the last decade, and the best bet for Republicans is to extend her down the lakeshore to Racine and Kenosha, taking those burdens off Ryan’s back. This also becomes a majority-minority district, at 48% White VAP. The PVI here could be even higher than the current D+22.

WI-05-yellow: Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Menomonee Falls)

This R+13 district needed to be unpacked a little to help out its neighbors, but Sensenbrenner is still in good shape. He gains a little more of Milwaukee County from Moore (I only added precincts that Ron Johnson carried in 2010, though) and also adds 53% McCain Dodge County. In exchange, he drops parts of the blood-red Milwaukee exurbs to help Ryan and Petri, but retains more than enough of a base to remain in Congress.

WI-06-teal: Tom Petri (R-Fond du Lac)

Petri’s district went narrowly for Obama in 2008, but this configuration probably went for McCain by a point or two. It drops Adams County (the worst partisan numbers in the district), the northern Madison suburbs in Columbia County, and some moderately Republican counties along the lake. Then, to shore up Petri, it picks up some 60%+ McCain precincts in Washington and Ozaukee Counties. Finally, it take Appleton (and Steve Kagen) off of Ribble’s hands.

WI-07-grey: Sean Duffy (R-Ashland)

The trouble with Wisconsin outside of the southeast is that it’s incredibly even. The average county in this part of the state is extremely swingly, and this district is light-blue in nature because of the cities along Lake Superior in the northwest (you can’t quite see them on the map, but trust me, they’re there.) Thus, it’s hard to give a ton of help to Duffy, who sits in a 51% Kerry/56% Obama district. I was able to remove Stevens Point (63% Obama) and replace it with St. Croix County, which is 51% McCain and trending Republican as Minnesotan expats transform it into an exurb of the Twin Cities. Otherwise, Duffy is stuck with a bunch of small rural counties that voted for Bush and Obama, and supported him in 2010.

WI-08-light purple: Reid Ribble (R-DePere)

Ribble is stuck in the northeast corner to a degree, but I tried to help him by removing Appleton and replacing it with the more GOP-friendly Sheboygan. Obama still won this version of the 8th, but only by a small margin, and Bush cleaned up here in 2004. This is probably the worst place in America to be caught in a Chicago Bears jersey.

 

The Missouri House of Representatives has overridden the veto of Gov. Jay Nixon (D) on the proposed Congressional map, bringing this dramatic process one step closer to a close. Here’s the statewide map:

The House vote was 109-44, with Republicans getting the exact number of votes they needed for a 2/3 majority and no more. To make this map law, the Senate must also override, although the GOP has a large enough majority there that it can lose three members and still pass the plan.

UPDATE: According to Greg Giroux on Twitter, the Senate has overridden Nixon, 28-6. This will be Missouri’s congressional map for the next ten years. Full RRH analysis to come later this week.

RRH readers know full well how contentious redistricting is, particularly in states with divided control of government, and even more so when the state is losing a district. Throw in ambitious legislators, the prospect of an open seat, some backstabbing and profanity, an ambivalent governor, and good old fashioned racial politics, and you’ve got the mess that was Missouri this spring. In the end, legislative Republicans overcame several internal differences, largely due to personal opportunism, to produce a map that was vetoed by the governor but overridden with help from a few “bandit” Democrats. And when the music stopped, Rep. Russ Carnahan was the man without a district:

Below the jump, visuals of all eight new districts, including where everyone’s old territory went, partisan numbers, and who, other than Carnahan, drew the short end of the stick.

Notes: The purple area of the map represents the old district, the green represents the new district, and the overlapping purple and green is the area that the district retained. PVI’s were calculated using Obama/McCain numbers. The numbers for MO-05 and MO-06 are only estimates because Jackson County does not make any detailed data available.

MO-01: Lacy Clay (D-St. Louis) 47% White, 45% Black

D+28 (old: D+27)

Clay, for a variety of reasons, may be one of the least liked people in Washington, and his behind-the-scenes support for the Republican map was essential in overriding Nixon’s veto. He is a second-generation career politician who essentially inherited his seat from his father, CBC co-founder Bill Clay, and is known for putting racial interests ahead of partisan interests. In this case, Clay cedes swingy suburbs in western St. Louis County and gains the southern half of St. Louis City (which is predominantly white, working-class, and very Democratic), cutting Carnahan’s base out from under him. The new 1st is 70% Clay’s and 30% Carnahan’s, and the majority-black primary electorate would make this all but academic. St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay is also considering a primary run, in response to Clay’s role in redistricting, but a second white candidate in the race would only aid Lacy’s return to Congress.

MO-02: Todd Akin (R-Town and Country) or OPEN

R+6 (old: R+9)

This suburban seat was the main point of contention in the legislature, and the reason that a deal almost didn’t happen. The incumbent is Todd Akin, who has said he will decide on a Senate bid by the end of the month and is considered almost certain to be in. With the prospect of an open seat looming, a number of Republican legislators tried to draw their home bases into the seat, including St. Sen. Scott Rupp of St. Charles County and St. Rep. John Diehl of St. Louis County, and the entire process almost collapsed over the placement of a dozen precincts in St. Charles. In the end, Diehl got his way and Rupp did not, and the seat is more southern and less safe than its predecessor (although still not bad at R+6.) None of the legislators may go to Congress, however, as former Ambassador Ann Wagner and 2010 MO-03 candidate Ed Martin are both already in the race, and Wagner’s strong fundraising capacity makes her the nominal frontrunner. The totals show that Akin’s old seat is only 61% of the new seat, while 28% comes from Carnahan and the balance from Clay.

MO-03: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth)

R+11 (old: R+9)

Luetkemeyer played a large role in holding up the redistricting process, as the sophomore seemed to be balking at adding a large amount of territory in metro St. Louis. After looking at the map, you can’t really blame him: only 38% of the new 3rd comes from his old 9th, which is supposedly the base for the district. Luetkemeyer loses all the friendly rural territory in the north, and adds a lot of unfamiliar population in the suburbs and exurbs of St. Louis. His district supplants the 2nd as the primary seat for wealthy St. Charles County, and also includes a large stretch of Jefferson County in the south that had been in Carnahan’s district. Luetkemeyer will be aided by the addition of Jefferson City, which is more in line with his current seat, and also got his way in dropping Columbia and avoiding St. Louis County. A full 33% of this district comes from the old 2nd (almost as much as from the old 9th), while 16% is from the 3rd and 13% is from the 4th. Unfamiliar to over 60% of the electorate, Luetkemeyer could be vulnerable in the primary to a suburban Republican like Rupp.

MO-04: Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville)

R+10 (old: R+14)

Hartzler’s district is still a slice of rural west-central Missouri, but it has shifted around quite a bit to accommodate her more senior colleagues. First, she needed to drop the northernmost counties in her old district to make room for the new 5th, and also loses Jefferson City (which is pretty red by state capital standards.) These areas are replaced with some territory to the northeast, which includes the annoying large, light-blue college town of Columbia. Hartzler is helped by the addition of the rest of Cass County (her home base), but she can’t be thrilled about only having represented 61% of this district before. A full 28%, all in the Columbia area, is from the 9th, and the other 13% comes from the Kansas City area districts. The district drops 4 points to R+10 (the worst shift of any GOP seat), but barring the second coming of Ike Skelton, this will be a safely red seat.

MO-05: Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City)

estimated new: D+11 (old: D+10)

Like Clay, Cleaver played along with Republicans, directing black Democrats in his district to vote for the override and in exchange securing his own safety in both the primary and general. The logical step here would have been to place all of Jackson County (Kansas City and its suburbs) in one district, but that would have opened the door to a primary challenge from the suburbs, where there is a Democratic bench waiting for a shot at this seat. Thus, Cleaver bypasses much of outer Jackson County and instead adds some rural counties to the east, which do not provide any base sort of a base for a primary challenger. He also trades his portion of deep-red Cass County for Democratic precincts in Clay County. In total, Cleaver has represented 72% of this district before, and his new constituents come in equal parts from the 4th and 6th.

MO-06: Sam Graves (R-Tarkio)

estimated new: R+10 (old: R+7)

Previously a northwestern seat, the 6th expands to take in the entire northern third of the state of Missouri, running from Illinois to Kansas. But don’t let the map to you: the district’s population base remains in the Kansas City suburbs, and Graves has represented a full 75% of the district before. The new territory in the northeast is sufficiently red and sparsely populated that Graves’ biggest worry will be the mileage he will put on his car traversing this sprawling beast. It’s harder to see the changes in greater Kansas City, but Graves has added some of the most Republican parts of Jackson County in exchange for giving Democratic-leaning areas of Clay to Cleaver. This is responsible for the three point jump in PVI, the biggest positive change in any district.

MO-07: Billy Long (R-Springfield)

R+16 (old: R+17)

If you followed Missouri redistricting closely, you probably heard about 7 of the 8 new districts, and read comments or concerns from 8 of the 9 incumbents. Which makes it easy to forget that anonymous freshman Billy Long, a former auctioneer, probably got the best deal of anyone. He is the only Missouri Congressman to keep 100% of his old territory, adding bits and pieces in the north and east to get up to the population threshold. Southwestern Missouri is home to the Ozark Highlands, is considered part of the “Bible Belt” and is the most culturally Southern part of the state. Accordingly, the 7th is the most Republican seat in MO and completely safe for Long. I don’t know what to take from this: that it pays to keep your mouth shut during heated arguments, or that it’s a great thing to be crammed into a well-populated corner of a state. Probably the latter.

MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau)

R+15 (old: R+15)

Emerson’s the dean of the delegation and an Appropriations cardinal of the majority party, so it was never in doubt that she would get the district she wanted. And indeed, she is at least as safe in the new 8th as Long is next door in the 7th, despite taking on some of Carnahan’s old territory. The areas Emerson adds in the northeast–Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve Counties–are blue collar and lean Democratic, but they are swamped by conservative territory to the south, including the Congresswoman’s strong base in Cape Girardeau. In total, Emerson’s old district accounts for 86% of the new 8th population. If you ever question the power of seniority, compare that to the less comfortable figures for Hartzler (61%) and Luetkemeter (38%.)

MO-“09”: Russ Carnahan (D-St. Louis)

formerly D+7

As you know, this is the one that disappeared, and this map shows exactly how gloomy the outlook is for Carnahan:

That’s the outline of his old district, which has been divided in four: blue for Clay (where 35% of Carnahan’s territory ends up), green for Akin (33%), cyan for Luetkemeyer (19%), and lilac for Emerson (13%.) The plurality of Carnahan’s constituents are in Clay’s district, which is also the only of the four likely to elect a Democrat, but he would face a difficult primary in a 45% black district against the king of racial politics. MO-02 may be the better option, as there is a good amount of Democratic leaning-territory in southeastern St. Louis County and could be a messy GOP primary, but at R+6 it’s right at the edge of what Democrats can win in a good year in the suburbs.

Everyone seems to agree that Republicans in Georgia should draw a 10R-4D map, with three urban VRA seats in greater Atlanta and a 4th VRA seat in South Georgia. Most people–from the national pundits to RRH readers–seem to think that John Barrow’s 12th will become a Republican seat, while Sanford Bishop’s 2nd will add more African-Americans and function as a Democratic vote sink. I’m inclined to agree that this is the likely outcome, but I don’t necessarily agree that it’s the best.

Per the VRA, South Georgia needs one majority-minority seat. This is currently the 2nd, but the law doesn’t specify where the district must be, only that it must exist. Keeping the 2nd would mean keeping Sanford Bishop, who isn’t the most liberal of Democrats but is a fairly reliable partisan vote and has some serious ethical concerns relating to CBC-sponsored scholarships. Barrow, on the other hand, is ethically sound and more conservative, voting with the GOP on healthcare reform, Stupak, cap and trade, and (sometimes) immigration despite being from a district with the same PVI as Bishop’s (D+1.) His career ACU score is 33 to Bishop’s 29, and he has scored a 17 in each of the last two years while Bishop has been below 10.

So, I thought, why not try and dismantle Bishop while keeping Barrow around? The map is kind of ugly and requires Austin Scott to shift around a little, but otherwise works pretty well. It also places the new 14th in a place I haven’t seen it on any other map.

GA-01-blue: Jack Kingston (R-Savannah) R+14, old R+16

–Retains its base in the white sections of Savannah but slides north to pick up white counties from Barrow’s old 12th. Becomes two points more Democratic, but this is the part of Georgia that is trending Republican. Kingston explicitly demanded that his district did not pick up the black parts of Savannah, and this map fulfills that request.

GA-02-green: Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) R+8, old D+1

–Bishop almost lost in 2010, and these new lines should finish him off. His home base of Albany is split in two, and he loses the swingy territory in the southwestern corner of the state. In exchange, he picks up some deep red territory north of Macon and a few counties in the central part of the state that are trending heavily Republican. The new racial stats are 57% white, 36% black.

GA-03-purple: Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville) R+17, old R+19

–A very similar district to the old 3rd for Westmoreland. Based in the southern exurbs of Atlanta, it can afford to pick up a few unfriendly precincts in Henry County to help its neighbors.

GA-04-red: Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia) D+27, old D+26

VRA: 51% black

–The first of the three uber-Democratic vote sinks in the Atlanta area, the 4th is almost completely suburban and gave 80% of the vote to Obama. It adds two legs into the hardest D-trending areas of Gwinnett County to help secure the neighboring 7th, but is still based in DeKalb county.

GA-05-yellow: John Lewis (D-Atlanta) D+29, old D+26

VRA: 53% black

–Civil Rights Era hero Lewis gets a clean vote sink in eastern Atlanta that now includes all of 80% Obama Clayton County. This is the most Democratic district in Georgia (82-17) and one of the most in the South.

GA-06-teal: Tom Price (R-Roswell) R+18, old R+17

–The good doctor sees his fast-growing seat condense to north Fulton and most of Cherokee, with a few select precincts from DeKalb. Perhaps the safest suburban seat outside of Texas for a Republican.

GA-07-gray: Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) R+17, old R+14

–This is the part of the state Republicans are worried about, as it trended sharply Democratic in 2008. But fears are slightly overstated, as it’s easy to put the worst parts of Gwinnett in the 4th and keep the rest of the county with Woodall. To prevent against future shifts, the new 7th goes up to solidly red Gainesville. 60% White.

GA-08-lilac: Austin Scott (R-Ashburn) R+12, old R+10

–Most of this is new territory for Scott, but he’s a rural South Georgia politician and is probably better suited for this slice of Dixie along the Florida border than for the Atlanta exurbs. The 8th is two points more Republican now. Scott agreeing to take a district like this would make the mapmakers’ job a lot easier.

GA-09-cyan: Tom Graves (R-Ranger) R+24, old R+29

–The 9th is no longer one of the 5 most Republican districts in America, but it’s still easily in the top 15. I wanted to unpack it even more but there wasn’t a clear way to do that. 70% McCain.

GA-10-pink: Paul Broun (R-Athens) R+23, old R+16

–Any district in northeast Georgia is going to be a vote sink, so I decided to use the territory Graves gave up to drown out Athens. Lots of new territory for Broun but he’s kind of controversial and is a good fit for an R+23.

GA-11-lime: Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta) R+21, old R+20

–Goes south instead of north along the Alabama border but still based in northern Cobb County. More of the same for Gingrey.

GA-12-cornflower: John Barrow (D-Savannah) D+10, old D+1

VRA: 50% black

–Savannah, Augusta, and Macon combine with the most black rural counties in South Georgia to form a district that is just barely black-majority VAP. Yes, it’s ugly, but it gets the job done. The Macon arm is the only new section for Barrow, who could be vulnerable in the primary but has fended off tough challenges before in a district that is only 6% less black.

GA-13-tan: David Scott (D-Atlanta) D+21, old D+19

VRA: 57% black

–The final Atlanta vote sink, taking in the western part of the city and the blue parts of Cobb and Douglas counties. Surprisingly, this district has more black voters than the 4th or 5th but is less Democratic than either of those, as the whites in Cobb and Douglas are pretty darned conservative.

GA-14-fatigues: OPEN R+17

–Surprise! After the other 13 districts are drawn, the 14th ends up in eastern Georgia, combining the southeastern suburbs/exurbs of Atlanta with a long stretch of the South Carolina border, ending up in the white parts of Augusta (where all those Masters patrons hail from.) The district is shaped like an hourglass on its side as a result of the Athens to the northeast gerrymander, and is conservative enough that it can drown out some of the Democratic areas of metro Atlanta.

Preface –

I’ve really been interested in the idea of redistricting and what objective redistricting would look like. I did this using a manually done algorithm (if you know a math professor I could get in contact with, let me know). I am also assigning states districts based on eligible voters. Eligible voter information is not widely available so I’m apportioning by 2008 election results, which I think is a proxy.

The things I don’t take into account are “COI” and the VRA. COI, or communities of interest, is to me, arbitrary. My view is that if you use an algorithm COI will fall into place and most of the residents of each district will have more in common with each other than a non-COI district. As for the VRA, I think that it again makes objectivity impossible and goes against the grain of what voting in the u.s. should be all about – who is to say a POC can’t win in a white district or a white person in a minority-heavy seat?

The first states are doing are the ones that have a small number of seats. In This segment (I’m doing five, 87 seats in each), none of the states have more than seven seats. In states where it’s near the cutoff, the deviation can be substantial from the 300,000 voters you’re supposed to have in each district. I would like to have redistricting go in and out of state lines (for example a district taking in western Oklahoma and the TX panhandle) but I don’t have the technology to view two states at once (Roguemapper, let me know if you have anything like that). So without further ado, let me walk you through each state/district with my Michael Baronian (and in some cases Tom Wolfe-ian) analysis.

Alabama (sorry, I’m having trouble with photobucket)

1st District Bradley Byrne R-Fairhope

Comments: The 1st is dominated by Mobile which is an industrial maritime city. Southern blue collar workers, whether white or black, were a demo that, at least downballot, was a lock for democrats. Yet this district hasn’t elected a democrat to congress in 55 years. On the other hand, the neighboring MS-4 is pretty similar but has always been the most republican part of the state (Gene Taylor’s tenure notwithstanding). In any event, Bradley Byrne, who I first heard about in 2010 on Bill Maher when he was running for governor, won this seat in a 2013 special election and he should have the seat as long as he wants it.
2008 Election Results (all results are two party): 39.1 Obama, 60.9 McCain.

2nd District Martha Roby R-Montgomery

Comments: The 2nd district extends from the mostly white piney woods counties on the Florida border (which I’ve driven through and is very “paddle faster” if you will) all the way to the black belt, named for both its soil and its population. Any district that includes Montgomery will never be too republican as Mike Rogers had a few tough elections in the 2000s when his district took in the black areas of Montgomery. In the republican year of 2010, Bobby Bright would have won this 37% black district somewhat easily. Without Bright, Roby should probably be in good shape, but its possible that Bright could primary Roby, similar to MS-4 in 2014. Lean R
2008 Election Results: 44.5 Obama, 55.5 McCain

3rd District Mike Rogers R-Anniston

Comments: This is a classic rural/small-town southern district. Somewhere in this district is the invisible fall-line that separates the deep south from the Piedmont. Mike Rogers, the district’s incumbent, had some tough races in the 2000s as the district took in the black areas of Montgomery. With that removed, he has a 72% white, R+20ish seat, and should be good to go. Safe R.
2008 Election results: 33.2 Obama, 66.8 McCain

4th District Bob Aderholt R-Haleyville

Comments: This part of the state is somewhat different from the rest of Alabama as it is more like Middle Tennessee than the deep south. The district’s allegiance to the democratic party, going back to the civil war, was only strengthened by the new deal and the TVA. Despite the fact that this is now one of the most republican districts in the state, Bob Aderholt is not unlike many of the democrats who have represented this area – populist, in favor of collective government programs (national defense, highways, a currency, public safety, public works) and opposed to micro-targeted government programs (public medicine, public housing, food stamps). He is the 3rd ranking democrat on appropriations and at only 50, has a good chance of chairing the committee in the not-so-distant future.
2008 Election Results: 29.7 Obama, 70.3 McCain

5th District Mo Brooks R-Huntsville

Comments: The 5th has a similar profile to the 4th except that the district includes Huntsville, which has NASA and all, making the district a little more prosperous than the 4th as a result. Despite the fact that this district was represented by democrats until recently, it should be a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 31.1 Obama, 68.9 McCain

6th District Terri Sewell D-Birmingham, Gary Palmer R-Vestavia Hills

Comments: This is the Birmingham district. Birmingham is a steel city and was often known as the Pittsburgh of the south. So it is more of a rustbelt type city and never had the population explosion of other southern metros like Atlanta. It’s well known that after World War II, many blacks from the deep south moved to northern cities. But what is less well known is that it also happened within the south as blacks moved to a lot of Piedmont/Upcountry cities where there wasn’t a large native black population. As a result , this is now the blackest district in the state (43%). Not surprisingly, it is also the most democratic. Two incumbents live here and if they were to go up against each other, Sewell would probably win since she is less liberal than Palmer is conservative. It is possible Palmer could run in the open 7th. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 55 Obama, 45 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: The district takes in a lot of black belt counties (including Dallas County where Selma is) but it is politically outweighed by the areas further north including Tuscaloosa (which despite being a college town is republican) and some of the ultra-republican Birmingham exurbs. No incumbent lives here but Palmer could run here. I think the democrats might put up a decent showing in an open seat (especially in a good dem year) but I think the seat ultimately goes to a republican.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain
Arkansas

1st District Rick Crawford R-Joneboro

Comments: This is a varied district stretching from the all white areas on the foothills of the ozarks to the delta counties near Memphis with a large black population. It is a rural and relatively poor district and Rick Crawford, the district’s congressman, votes as you would expect from a republican representing such a district. Given the political headwinds in this district, Crawford (whose running unopposed) should stay in the house for awhile unless he wants to run statewide.
2008 Election Results: 39 Obama, 61 McCain

2nd District French Hill R-Little Rock

Comments: This is the Little Rock district. Given the political trends in Arkansas and this being the least republican district in the state (now at least), one would think that this district went for Gore. But it actually went for Bush. This is the only district where the democrats political headwinds have been fairly neutral and if the Arkansas democrats ever win any of the seats, it will be this one. The democrats did pretty decently here in the republican year of 2014 and even when factoring in Hill now being an incumbent, the democrats might have a shot in a republican presidential midterm. But for now lean R.
2008 Election Results: 46.2 Obama, 53.8 McCain

3rd District Steve Womack R-Rogers

Comments: The 3rd district is pretty similar to Billy Long’s district in Missouri in that it is the part of the state that has been republican the longest and whose republicanism has been maintained by conservative newcomers. The closest the democrats came to winning this district in 50 years was in 1974 when Bill Clinton nearly knocked off the republican incumbent. But that was when the district stretched further south (thus taking in more dem areas) and it was also 1974. Steve Womack, the incumbent, first made news as mayor of Rogers when he wanted to crack down on illegal immigrants (similar to Barletta). But he’s made less noise since entering congress and is a backbencher. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 34.5 Obama, 65.5 McCain

4th District Bruce Westerman R-Hot Springs

Comments: The 4th district, especially in the areas near the Louisiana and Mississippi border, are the most deep south part of the state. The district is mostly rural except for the occasional small city, like onetime mafia hangout Hot Springs. Hot Springs is also where Bill Clinton is from and the home of congressman Bruce Westerman. Westerman, like most Arkansas republicans, are go-along-to-get-along backbenchers. He did have a semi-close election in 2014 but he will be running unopposed in 2016.
2008 Election Results: 39.5 Obama, 60.5 McCain
Connecticut

1st District John Larson D-East Hartford

Comments: The 1st is the Hartford district. As the state capital, it is the only real city in the state as New Haven and Fairfield counties are arguably part of the New York area. It’s also been the most consistently democratic district in the state and hasn’t elected a democrat to congress since 1956. The incumbent is John Larson who is 9th on the house Ways and Means committee and onetime chair of the House Democratic Caucus. But given his age (67) its unlikely he will ever chair Ways and Means or be speaker. Nonetheless he can keep winning this seat for as long as he likes. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 70.1 Obama, 29.9 McCain

2nd District Joe Courtney D-Vernon

Comments: This is the most New England part of the state where Red Sox fans definitely outnumber Yankees fans (I’d say the 1st, 2nd and 5th are more Boston and the 3rd, 4th and 6th more New York). This is mostly just old mill towns. Joe Courtney is the district’s incumbent and outside of his initial election in 2006, has never had much trouble winning reelection. He was probably too old when first elected to become a committee chairmen but he should be office until the 2020s (unless he runs statewide). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 59.9 Obama, 40.1 McCain

3rd District Rosa DeLauro D-New Haven

Comments: The 3rd district takes in some of the “twin cities” of New Haven and Bridgeport and some marginal territory to the north. The biggest landmark here is obviously Yale University. The incumbent is Rosa DeLauro who is the dean of the Connecticut delegation and 5th ranking democrat on Appropriations. I’ve always viewed DeLauro as a gender ideologue and thankfully likely retires by 2022. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 61.4 Obama, 38.6 McCain

4th District Jim Himes D-Cos Cob

Comments: The 4th district has historically been the base of the Connecticut republican party as the district is the wealthiest in the state and probably home to a lot of Wall Street types. The “outlier” of the district is Bridgeport which has always been dem, even when it was all white. It should come as no surprise then that this was the last district in Connecticut to elect a democrat. Jim Himes is the incumbent and has never gotten above 60%. I’d put this at Lean/Likely D with Himes and Tossup/Tilt D in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 61.2 Obama, 38.8 McCain

5th District Liz Esty D-Cheshire

Comments: The 5th district is pretty similar to the 2nd demographically as its mostly small New England mill towns. Liz Esty lives here and may run here as opposed to the less safe 6th district. I’d rate this district as Likely D if Esty runs here, Lean D otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 60.6 Obama, 39.4 McCain

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 6th is the district most likely to elect a republican in Connecticut as the district contains a lot of exurban areas containing people who used to live in the 1st and 4th district. Litchfield county is interesting as its mostly exurban but there are some precincts in the far north that vote like Western Massachusetts. In any event, Esty could run here or the 5th. I’d say Lean D with Esty and tossup in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 54.8 Obama, 45.2 McCain

Delaware No Incumbent

Comments: This is another at large district. The incumbent would have been John Carney, but he’s running for governor. I’m not sure of who’s running, but I’d put this at Lean/Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 62.6 Obama, 37.4 McCain

District of Columbia Incumbent: EH Norton (D)

Comments: The reason I’m adding DC is simply because they vote in presidential elections. If they vote in presidential elections, surely they should have a voting u.s. house member (though maybe not a senator). If Jack Kemp supported it, then it shouldn’t be controversial. The incumbent is Eleanor Holmes Norton who, depending on if the seniority system would give her the same rights as someone who’d been a voting member the whole time, would be the second ranking democrat on the house public works committee. Obviously safe D.
2008 Election Results: 93.4 Obama, 6.6 McCain

Idaho

1st District Raul Labrador R-Eagle

Comments: Historically the northern areas were more dem leaning while the areas near Boise (the Boise area is effectively split between the districts) is more republican. For the most part the northern and southern areas have converged politically but if there is any chance of a democrat winning an Idaho district it would be this one. Raul Labrador is very much a tea party guy (which is interesting since Simpson is somewhat less conservative in a more republican district) but he seems to have a good grip on the district. I’m not sure if he plans to run statewide or if he wants to stay in the house and become a committee chair but this is a Likely/Safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 40.4 Obama, 59.6 McCain

2nd District Mike Simpson R-Idaho Falls

Comments: The 2nd district is the most Mormon non-Utah district in the country. The district is consistently republican and hasn’t voted dem for president since 1936 (which is interesting because you would think that until about 1952 it would be the most dem part of the state since Mormons voted dem until about 1952.) Mike Simpson is the incumbent and the fact that he is on his ninth term indicates to me that he has no statewide ambitions. He’s not nearly as conservative as most Idaho republicans (or most house republicans either) but he has a good grip on his district in both the general and primary and is now an appropriations cardinal. I see him staying for another decade. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 33.6 Obama, 66.4 McCain
Iowa

1st District Rod Blum R-Dubuque

Comments: The 1st is the most dem district in the state and is a classic labor-dem district. Dubuque, unlike the rest of the rest of the district, has been dem far longer than any other part of the state as it has a large catholic population. The CW on this district is that Rod Blum is far too conservative for this seat and should lose to a generic D.
2008 Election Results: 59.3 Obama, 40.7 McCain

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The 2nd is northern Iowa. The district has the largest Scandinavian population of any of the Iowa districts and a majority of the district is north of the IL/WI border. The heart of the district is in four cities with a labor presence – Fort Dodge, Waterloo, Mason City and Marshalltown. I’m not sure who the democrats have but former rep Jim Nussle (1991-2007) could run here. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 56.6 Obama, 43.4 McCain

3rd District Dave Loebsack D-Iowa City

Comments: The 3rd district is the most varied of any of the Iowa seats – some rural Missouri like areas in the far southern and western parts that are the republican parts of the district, small labor-heavy cities like Ottumwa and Burlington that vote similar to the district as a whole, and moonbat-heavy Johnson County (where the U of I is). Loebsack is something of an underperforming incumbent and I wonder if he might be primaried eventually. This should be a Likely D seat for now.
2008 Election Results: 56.8 Obama, 43.2 McCain

4th District David Young R-Johnston

Comments: The 4th is the Des Moines district and the only part of the state that isn’t stagnating population wise. This district has normally voted dem – I think Mondale might have even won this seat. While Neal Smith represented this district for 36 years, the seat has had four congressmen in the 20 years since. David Young is the freshman congressman here and has thus far kept a low profile. As to who the democrats could run, I remember Kyle Orton, who like Smith, is from Altoona, saying that he was a democrat and wanted to run for office someday. I’d put this as a tossup.
2008 Election Results: 56.3 Obama, 43.7 McCain

5th District Steve King R-Kiron

Comments: This part of Iowa has always been the most republican part of the state and votes more like similar areas in Nebraska (kind of like Fortenberry’s seat). Steve King, the district’s congressman, is the last of the “old right” Midwest republican (i.e. Bob Taft or John Bricker). Only instead of railing about communism like they did, his bugaboo is immigration and multiculturalism. Not surprisingly, King is on the house judiciary committee which has jurisdiction over that type of stuff. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 45.1 Obama, 54.9 McCain
Kansas

1st District Tim Huelskamp R-Fowler

Comments: This is a pretty heavily rural district taking in the high plains of Kansas. The great plains is arguably the most republican part of the united States, outside of some of parts of the south. The district is republican enough that Tim Huelskamp, the tea party congressman, can keep winning election in November for as long as he wants, but the primary is a different story.
2008 Election Results: 31.3 Obama, 68.7 McCain

2nd District Lynn Jenkins D-Topeka

Comments: This is northeastern Kansas and the most dem district in the state. This is due in part to the inclusion of Wyandotte and Douglas counties – two counties that are heavily dem but for different reasons. Also, the rest of the district, like Topeka and Manhattan, are only marginally republican. Lynn Jenkins is the incumbent here and while I’d put this lean R most years, this should be a tossup in a good dem year.
2008 Election Results: 50.4 Obama, 49.6 McCain

3rd District Kevin Yoder R-Overland Park

Comments: This is the Johnson county district. Johnson County is historically republican, having not voted dem for president since 1916! As a general rule of thumb the further north to northeast in the district the more dem it gets and the more south or southwest you get the more republican and megachurchy it gets. Kevin Yoder is the incumbent here and given his age when elected (34) he could chair appropriations in a few decades. Outside of that Sea of Galilee thing he’s kept a low profile and should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 46.7 Obama, 53.3 McCain

4th District Mike Pompeo R-Wichita

Comments: The 4th is SE Kansas taking in the areas between Kansas City and Wichita (and half of Wichita too) and much of the Missouri and Oklahoma border. I’d describe it as a rural socon district, very Elmer Gantry –ish. The incumbent is Mike Pompeo who is low profile and has a foot in both establishment and tea party camps. He should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain

Kentucky

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 1st was historically the most dem district in the state, often voting more dem than Louisville. It’s still more dem than other parts of rural Kentucky and had the district looked like this in 1994, Whitfield may have lost and Tom Barlow would have stayed put, probably until 2010. The seat is open now but is open a few years too late. Despite most of the legislative seats here being dem controlled, I’d rate this Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 40.8 Obama, 59.2 McCain

2nd District Brett Guthrie R-Bowling Green

Comments: The 2nd district is less ancestrally democratic than the 1st as it takes in some republican areas from the pre-1990s 5th district. Brett Guthrie, a low-profile mainstream republican, should have no trouble winning here. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 34.3 Obama, 65.7 McCain

3rd District John Yarmuth D-Louisville

Comments: This is the Louisville district. I would compare Louisville to Cincinnati or St Louis – stagnating river cities. The fact that 47% of the population here voted in 2008 while the next closest was 43% in the 4th, means that since this is the only real dem district in the state, that it will be hard for democrats to win the state if turnout is already high in the base areas. I’d rate this Safe D with Yarmuth, Likely D in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 58.6 Obama, 41.4 McCain

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the furthest north district in the state and the entire district is north of Evansville. While there are some ancestrally dem rural areas, they are numerically swamped by the republican areas near Louisville and Cincinnati. This is a republican seat that hasn’t gone dem for president since 1964 and except for Ken Lucas, hasn’t elected a dem for congress since 1964 either. Given that the areas to the east, where Lucas ran strongest, aren’t in this seat, its possible Lucas may have lost the seat all three times. No incumbent lives here but Tom Massie, a Ron Paul type republican, likely runs here. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 37.9 Obama, 62.1 McCain

5th District Hal Rogers R-Somerset, Tom Massie R-Garrison

Comments: The 5th is a mashup of two old districts that are/were both almost all white (the 5th is the whitest in the nation: 96.2%) and very poor but with differing politics. The old 7th district was pretty consistently dem while the old 5th district was like Eastern Tennessee and staunchly republican. In the past it would have cancelled out and the dems would have a good shot to win this seat. But with eastern Kentucky’s stampede to the right, the dems have no chance here. Hal Rogers is the incumbent here and is the prince of pork. Tom Massie lives here but even if Hal Rogers retires, I doubt he runs here since most of his seat is in the 4th and his ideology isn’t a good fit. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 34.8 Obama, 65.2 McCain
6th District Andy Barr R-Lexington

Comments: The 6th, along with the 3rd, are the two seats in Kentucky without the harsh anti-dem headwinds of other parts of the state. It’s the only other seat to the left of the state, though it still voted for McCain. It contains Lexington, home of UK, and Frankfurt the state capital. Outside that, its classic Kentucky blue grass country. In 2012, I was surprised when Ben Chandler lost this seat since he had survived 2010 as the district wasn’t gerrymandered to hurt him and the headwinds like I said, weren’t as anti-Obama here. Nonetheless, Andy Barr got nearly 60% in 2014 and looks to be safe for the time being.
2008 Election Results: 44.2 Obama, 55.8 McCain

Louisiana

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: This is mostly the area north of Lake Ponchartrain and east of Baton Rouge. This area is very deep south (David Duke is from Mandeville I think) but without the black population to give the dems better numbers. If you were to take out some of the NOLA areas, it is easily a 72% McCain district (interestingly even in NOLA there are some republican areas in the nw corner). No incumbent lives here but this is Scalise’s district. Normally being the republican majority whip puts you on the elevator to being the speaker but with the way things are now, I doubt he is ever speaker. In any event, its a safe republican district.
2008 Election Results: 31.4 Obama, 68.6 McCain

2nd District Cedric Richmond D-New Orleans Steve Scalise R-Jefferson

Comments: Of all 435 districts, this might be the one that lost the most people from 2000-2010 (or second only to a detroit district), much of which can be attributed to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is the NOLA district and this part of Louisiana has always been different than the rest of the south whether it be the accents (which sounds more like NY), the food, or the preference for the weird (witch doctors, voodoo etc). While Steve Scalise lives here this is clearly Richmond’s seat. He should keep winning reelection, even in a D+3 seat, unless Cao runs against him. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.1 Obama, 42.9 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: This is a small town cajun heavy district. I would picture this district to look kind of like Mama Boucher’s farm in the waterboy. No incumbent lives here and I would expect Jeff Landry, who represented the district for a term, to make a comeback here. Should be Likely/Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 37.9 Obama, 62.1 McCain

4th District John Fleming R-Minden

Comments: The 4th district (and the 5th) are more deep south than the rest of Louisiana. About a third of the district is in Caddo County (Shreveport) which is an oil town like Tyler or Longview and is ancestrally republican. There’s also a military presence with nearby Barksdale AFB. But Caddo County might be the only part of the state that is trending to the democrats as it is now 47% black. The other two thirds of the district is whiter and more republican. The incumbent is John Fleming who is a quieter version of his next door neighbor, Louie Gohmert. Aside from a tough race in 2008, he’s won reelection easily and probably will do so in the near future.
2008 Election Results: 40.8 Obama, 59.2 McCain
5th District Ralph Abraham R-Mangham

Comments: The 5th district, outside of Alexandria and Monroe, is pretty sparsely populated. If you look at old congressional maps, the 5th is an amalgamation of the 5th and the old 8th, which was a Long stronghold. The district has changed congressman twice in two years. This was party switcher Rodney Alexander’s district for eleven years and when he resigned in 2013, it was won by Vance McAllister. McAllister should have been in for a long tenure (with the endorsement of the Robertsons who are from here) but he was caught cheating on his wife or something and lost renomination. The new congressman is Ralph Abraham who I don’t know much about and will probably be a backbencher. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 37.3 Obama, 62.7 McCain

6th District Garrett Graves R-Baton Rouge

Comments: If the democrats are ever going to win any non-NOLA district, it will be in this 39 percent black district. Baton Rouge is the second largest city, state capital and home to LSU. The democrats did win this seat in a 2008 special election, but lost it in November to Cassidy. When he ran for the senate in 2014, he was replaced by Garrett Graves. There are still R+ PVI seats in the Louisiana legislature held by democrats and I think the dems might have a shot here. Lean R for now.
2008 Election Results: 45.1 Obama, 54.9 McCain

7th District Charles Boustany R-Lafayette

Comments: The 7th district is anchored by the small cities of Lafayette and Lake Charles. I’d say this part of Louisiana is pretty similar to the 3rd district. The district’s congressman, Charles Boustany, is on his sixth term and a member of the House Ways and Means committee. Being the second most republican district in Louisiana (the district is only 23 percent black), Boustany should be safe barring something unexpected.
2008 Election Results: 34.2 Obama, 65.8 McCain
Maine

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The district is anchored by Portland and also includes most of Androscoggin county which is the part of the state that has voted for democrats the longest. No incumbent lives here but Pingree would run here. Pingree started out her career as somewhat of a weak incumbent but has gotten above 60% in her last two outings. She was named to the house appropriations at the start of the 113th, though its unlikely given her age that she’ll ever be a chair or cardinal. Safe D with Pingree, Likely D otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 61.8 Obama, 38.2 McCain

2nd District Bruce Polquin R-Oakland Chellie Pingree D-North Haven

Comments: The 2nd district is pretty similar to Nova Scotia and Quebec culturally/demographically. A lot of the population here is descended from French Canadians who came over to work in the mills and fisheries. The democrats really fumbled the seat away in 2014 when they ran Emily Cain who seemed like the wrong type of dem for the seat. I disagree with shammy though when he says Maine will trend republican since it’s not that religious of a seat. I would say Tossup for the time being.
2008 Election Results: 55.8 Obama, 44.2 McCain

Mississippi

1st District Trent Kelly R-Saltillo

Comments: The 1st is the northernmost section of the state spanning from the cotton-rich delta with its large black population to the northeast hill country, which is mostly white. The district also contains Oxford which is where Ole Miss is. To the northwest it takes in DeSoto county which is a mostly white ultraconservative suburban area. What’s interesting is the area of Tennessee it borders is 95% black so the state line is like the berlin wall of sorts. The 1st used to be a democratic district, electing appropriations chairman Jamie Whitten. It probably has the least republican white vote in the state but that’s counterbalanced by it being “only” 29 percent black. The district was held by Alan Nunelee who unfortunately died not long after winning a third term. The new congressman is Trent Kelly who shouldn’t have much trouble winning reelection.
2008 Election Results: 39 Obama, 61 McCain

2nd District Bennie Thompson D-Bolton

Comments: The 2nd district spans from the Delta to the Alabama border. As a general rule of thumb the further west you go, the higher the black population. This district may have been black majority as late as 1960 (its 48 percent black now) but the great migration has caused blacks to leave this district. It’s possible that the great migration merely delayed the inevitable (blacks gaining political power) and the district could possibly become black majority once again within a decade or so. The district’s congressman is Bennie Thompson but I’m pretty sure he gets primaried in this seat. It should go to a non-Thompson democrat though.
2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain

3rd District Gregg Harper R-Pearl

Comments: Before 2000, this was called the 4th district. It’s the one part of the state with a democrat trend. Hinds County (Jackson) voted 60% for Ford in 1976 while Carter carried the state and now it voted 71% for Obama in 2012. It obviously has something to do with white flight. In any event, Gregg Harper has his work cut out for him. The strongest democrat in Mississippi, Jim Hood, lives in the 1st, so I’m not sure who would run here. A decent democrat should be able to beat him though. Lean D.
2008 election Results: 50.8 Obama, 49.2 McCain

4th District Steve Pallazzo R-Biloxi

Comments: This district I think has the most republican white vote in the state and is only 24% black so it’s by far the most GOP seat in the state. How Gene Taylor held this seat for 20 years is beyond me (he actually lost his first race in 1988). Either way, Taylor himself must realize the dems are done here since he ran against Pallazzo in the republican primary in 2014. No matter how you slice it, this is a safe R seat.
2008 Election Results: 32.9 Obama, 67.1 McCain

Montana

Comments: Montana doesn’t have partisan data but under this plan there would be two seats. District 1 would be Zinke’s and a democrat would have a pretty decent chance to win that seat. District 2 is classic “Big Sky Country” and would be fairly to solidly republican. Lean/Likely R in D2, Tossup in D1.

Nevada

1st District Dana Titus D-Las Vegas

Comments: The 1st is the northside of Las Vegas which is where much of the city’s black and Hispanic population lives (combined, they’re about 48 percent of the population). The district’s congresswoman is Dana Titus. Titus represented the 3rd district for a term in 2009-2011 and when Shelly Berkley ran for the senate in 2012 she ran here. This is the most urban, most minority and most dem district in the state and Titus should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 62.6 Obama, 37.4 McCain

2nd District Mark Amodei R-Carson City, Crescent Hardy R-Mesquite

Comments: The 2nd is the upstate Nevada district. A lot of the district is sparsely inhabited desert (like area 51). Much of the population is in the Reno area, which before WWII was the largest city in Nevada. This is the most republican part of the state and Mark Amodei and Crescent Hardy both live here (though Hardy may run in 3rd). I would assume Amodei would win a primary here because this is mostly his district. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.2 Obama, 50.8 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the southern part of the Las Vegas area and is tied with an Arizona district for the second fastest growing during the 2000s in the country (55% increase). Although the district is more suburban than the 1st – it does take in a lot of Las Vegas attractions – a lot of vacationers probably don’t leave the 3rd as it takes in both McCarran Airport and the Strip. This was Joe Heck’s district, but he’s running for the senate. It’s possible Hardy runs here, but this is a tossup.
2008 Election Results: 57.3 Obama, 42.7 McCain
New Hampshire

1st District Frank Guinta R-Manchester

Comments: The 1st is the most Massachusetts-oriented of the two-NH districts. Unlike most states, the urban 1st is a few points more republican than the rural 2nd. This part of New Hampshire is where the Union Leader holds more sway. Hillsborough County, which makes up half of the electorate is pretty unlike most of New England. In the 40s and 50s (and before) it was the most dem part of the state (it actually went for Stevenson in 1952) but now it’s most republican than the state. The 1st is a fairly volatile district and there’s a chance that it may flip back once again with allegations of corruption against Guinta. I don’t think it goes to Porter though. Lean D with Guinta, Tossup without.
2008 Election Results: 53.1 Obama, 46.9 McCain

2nd District Ann Kuster R-Hopkinton

Comments: The 2nd, despite being more rural than the 1st, is the more liberal of the two districts. It may have something to do with there being pockets of the seat that are more like Vermont. Ann Kuster nearly won an open seat in 2010 and then defeated Charles Bass two years later (who was also rep from 95-07). In 2014 she had a tough race against a weak opponent but given the year 2014 was, she should be ok going forward. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 56.7 Obama, 43.3 McCain
New Mexico

1st District ML Grisham D-Albuquerque

Comments: The 1st is the Albuquerque district. I kind of wonder if Breaking Bad is a realistic portrayal of the place. The 1st, the highest turnout district in the state, has been trending to the dems as of late and Michelle Grisham should be fine for now. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 61.4 Obama, 38.6 McCain

2nd District Steve Pearce R-Hobbs

Comments: You would think that in New Mexico, the most Hispanic district would be the most dem, right? Wrong. Despite the fact that the district is 51% Hispanic, there are two things at play. First is that the whites here are more like those in West Texas (especially in the eastern part, see here: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w-XhLLT4Hgc/Td7ojHkn5EI/AAAAAAAAATE/QZJCwtDupIA/s1600/bible_belt_map_baptist.gif. In fact I estimated McCain won about 69% of the white vote here. Second is the Hispanics here are more recent arrivals than so the turnout is lower – only 34% of the population voted in the 2nd compared to 42% in the 1st and 37% in the 3rd. The district’s congressman, Steve Pearce, is a veteran and former oilman, similar to many of his constituents.While he lost his district when he ran for the senate, he has a pretty good hold on his seat. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 47.5 Obama, 52.5 McCain

3rd District Ben Lujan R-Nambe Pueblo

Comments: This is northern New Mexico. The rural areas are very poor and remote. One time when I was driving on I-25 north of Santa Fe, I ran into a dust storm with minimal visibility. The district’s dem lean comes from the fact that Hispanics and natives combine for 58% of the district and democrats here tend to get in the high 70s with them. Also there are a lot of liberal whites in Santa Fe and Taos – Obama got about 55% of the white vote districtwide. This is all good news for Ben Lujan. Elected at 36, he is already DCCC chair and could potentially be Energy and Commerce chair if he doesn’t run statewide. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 62 Obama, 38 McCain

North Dakota At-Large Kevin Cramer

Comments: North Dakota is a hospitable state for incumbents (especially republican incumbents) and Cramer (who actually lost to Pomeroy before) should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 45.6 Obama, 54.4 McCain

Oklahoma

1st District

Comments: I’m not sure if Bridenstine lives in the 1st or 2nd district but the 1st is historically the most republican part of the state. Bridenstine is something of a Ron Paul type but this is obviously a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 31.8 Obama, 68.2 McCain

2nd District

Comments: A little over half of the district is in Tulsa County. Tulsa hasn’t supported a democrat for president since 1936 so its pretty republican. The rest of the seat is more ancestrally dem, which would have mattered in the past; but since it is now to the right of the Tulsa portion, it’s a pretty safe district for any republican that runs here.
2008 Election Results: 35.3 Obama, 64.7 McCain

3rd District Markwayne Mullin R-Westville

Comments: This is a very poor rural district that is the most southern part of the state, known as Little Dixie. It also has a large (15%) native American population. The most well known democrat was Carl Albert who represented this area from 1947-1977 and spent his last six years as speaker. This is traditionally the most democratic district in the state as even Dukakis won or came close to winning this seat. But this district has been shifting hard to the republicans as of late and although Dan Boren might still be there if he hadn’t retired, no other democrat can win. Mullin, Cole, both (or neither) run here. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 33.4 Obama, 66.6 McCain

4th District Frank Lucas R-Cheyenne

Comments: Looking at the map, this looks like a classic great plains district that has always been republican. But only the northern half of the district is like that. The southern half is more ancestrally dem (see here):https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/PresidentialCounty1956.png/400px-PresidentialCounty1956.png. But alas, the trends in both parts of the district have converged and this is one of the safer districts for Rs in the country.
2008 Election Results: Obama 30.2, McCain 69.8

5th District Steve Russell R-Oklahoma City Tom Cole R-Moore

Comments: It’s interesting how this is the least republican district in OK since it would have been 5-10 points to the right of the state 30-40 years ago. Obviously rural Oklahoma has shifted hard to the republicans while the headwinds have been more neutral here. This is Steve Russell’s district but Tom Cole is the wildcard here as he lives here and the rest of his district is divided between the 3rd and 4th. Likely-to-safe R.
2008 Election Results: Obama 41.1, McCain 58.9
Oregon

Comments: Oregon doesn’t have partisan data so here’s a quick rundown
1st – suburban, fairly dem district. Bonamici would run here. Likely D.
2nd – a lot of Cliven Bundy types, safe R for Walden – only safe R seat in state.
3rd – most liberal seat in the state, safe for Blumenauer or any D
4th – DeFazio I think gets a slightly safer seat. Safe with DeFazio, Lean D otherwise
5th – southern suburbs of Portland – Lean D with Schrader. Tossup otherwise.
6th – far SW Oregon. Normally Lean R but tossup in open seat.

Rhode Island

1st District David Cicilline D-Providence

Comments: The 1st is the Providence district and Family Guy is probably an accurate portrayal of the district. This is classic machine politics country. David Cicilline is the incumbent and is safe, since the seat hasn’t gone to a republican for president since 1972.
2008 Election Results: 68.1 Obama, 31.9 McCain

2nd District James Langevin D-Warwick

Comments: The 2nd is substantially whiter (91% vs 65%) than the 1st and more suburban. It also contains the seaside resort town of Newport. The district could go to a republican in an open seat but James Langevin is a good fit for this district and he’s safe.
2008 Election Results: 60.3 Obama, 39.7 McCain

South Carolina

1st District Mark Sanford R-Charleston

Comments: The 1st is mostly Charleston, though it does include some resort areas in the southern part of the district. Charleston is very much the “old south” with the foghorn leghorn accent and all. Former governor Mark Sanford is the incumbent here and given how he had a tough race in a 2013 special election, he could potentially lose since Obama only narrowly lost the district in 2008. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 49.7 Obama, 50.3 McCain

2nd District Joe Wilson R-Springdale

Comments: The northern boundary of the seat is the “fall line”. The district goes from Aiken, which is across the Savannah from Augusta to some black areas in the eastern part (Orangeburg) to what is arguably the most conservative part of the state (Lexington County) and downtown Columbia (the state capital and USC campus). The incumbent is Joe Wilson who is on his seventh full term. He was the notorious “you lie” guy but otherwise is a low profile guy. He has a good chance of becoming the Ed&Labor chair with Kline retiring and is also on the Armed Services. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain

3rd District Jeff Duncan R-Laurens

Comments: As one moves inland from the coast, the black population decreases. This has to do with history and agricultural economics. Compared to the coast, the land here is hilly, less rainy and less fertile soil. The 3rd district is only 20% black. The 3rd district is classic upcountry South Carolina and Anderson is a typical textile city. The district also takes in Clemson, which is very conservative for a college town and home to (at least this year) a national championship caliber football team. Lastly about a quarter of the district is in Greenville County and Bob Jones is basically all you have to know about the area’s politics (albeit the Greenville portion is “only” 53% McCain). The incumbent is Jeff Duncan, who is a typical tea party congressman. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 37.9 Obama, 62.1 McCain

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 4th has historically been the most republican district in the state. Spartanburg historically wasn’t as republican as Greenville as it was more of a rough and tumble blue collar city. But over the years the gap has disappeared. It also extends to a point near Charlotte (York County). This would have been Gowdy’s district but he is supposedly retiring in 2016. Mick Mulvaney doesn’t live here but given the hostile district he has, he could conceivably run in this safe R seat.
2008 Election Results: 36.4 Obama, 63.6 McCain

5th District Jim Clyburn D-Columbia, Mick Mulvaney R-Lancaster

Comments: The district takes in much of Richland County (Columbia), a lot of rural/small city black areas, and goes up I-77 to a point near Charlotte. This is the only district in the state Obama won and Jim Clyburn is the incumbent (Mulvaney likely runs in the 4th). Clyburn is pretty old (75) and he’s known for being a doofus. He should lose the primary here. Until 2010, this would have been a Spratt-Clyburn matchup with Spratt winning. But with Spratt out of office (and has Parkinson’s) the person who will probably beat Clyburn will be two-time gubernatorial candidate Vinny Sheheen. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 56.1 Obama, 43.9 McCain

6th District Tom Rice R-Myrtle Beach

Comments: The 6th is the northeast corner of the state. Conway County (Myrtle Beach) is the fastest growing part of the district and the most republican, but there is dem strength in the rest of the district. This is an ancestrally democratic district so the democrats would be fools not to contest it. I’d put this at Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 47.7 Obama, 52.3 McCain
South Dakota Kristi Noem R-Castlewood

Comments: From the time SD went to one seat in 1982 to 2010, The at-large seat was held by dems for 20 out of 28 years. Since defeating Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, arguably the Heitkamp of SD, Noem has dispatched her two opponents fairly easily. While some have said she may run for governor, Noem might stay put since she was appointed to Ways and Means. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 45.7 Obama, 54.3 McCain

Utah

1st District Rod Bishop R-Brigham City, Chris Stewart R-Farmington

Comments: As Utah goes, so does this district, which is to say always republican. The Salt Lake portion tempers the district’s PVI somewhat as Obama won the SLC portion by forty. The rest of the district is a collection of small cities and exurbs that McCain won 2-1, though not as republican as downstate Utah. Two incumbents live here – Rod Bishop and Chris Stewart. In a head-to-head matchup I’d give the advantage to Bishop. Although both of them are pretty far-right, Stewart is somewhat of a flake and has less seniority. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 36.6 Obama, 63.4 McCain,

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: This contains the southern half of SLC and almost all of its suburbs. The politics in Utah can mostly be described as mormons vs non-mormons. Utah would probably vote more like Colorado without mormons. Because there are fewer mormons in SLC, it’s the only area winnable for dems in Utah. The district is R+6 (and that’s with 2008 numbers) but because Doug Owens almost won a much more republican district in 2014 and his father represented this seat on two occasions, I’d rate this Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 47.2 Obama, 52.8 McCain

3rd District Mia Love R-Saratoga Springs, Jason Chaffetz R-Alpine

Comments: Because this is the most mormon district in the state (and even fewer jack mormons) this is the most republican seat not only in Utah but in the nation. It’s a sparsely populated district, but much of the population is in Utah County, which is where BYU is. Two incumbents live here and I’d guess Love would run here since she would have an uphill race in the 2nd. Jason Chaffetz would probably defeat her in a primary here since this is mostly his district and Love is somewhat of a lightweight. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 22.6 Obama, 77.4 McCain

Vermont At Large Peter Welch D-Hartland

Comments: If there’s anywhere that resembles a Swedish style socialist state (despite it being largely French Canadian and WASP) it’s probably Vermont. The incumbent is Peter Welch, who although is not on the same level as moonbattery of Bernie Sanders, is still plenty liberal. He sits on the Energy and Commerce committee. Even if he retires, it should go dem (though i wouldn’t be surprised if a republican cracks 40%).
2008 Election Results: 68.9 Obama, 31.1 McCain
West Virginia

1st District David McKinley R-Wheeling, Alex Mooney R-Charles Town

Comments: This is the northern half of West Virginia. As a general rule of thumb, the further away you get from I-77, the more ancestrally republican the district gets (save for some of the Panhandle counties). Mooney is somewhat of a weak incumbent and a carpetbagger to boot so I think McKinley beats him in a primary. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 42.9 Obama, 57.1 McCain

2nd District Evan Jenkins R-Huntington

Comments: Before 2014 this would have been a Capito vs Rahall double-bunk. Almost all of the district is ancestrally dem but I don’t think it matters anymore. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 43.8 Obama, 56.2 McCain

Wyoming At Large Cynthia Lummis R-Cheyenne

Comments: Wyoming is like Montana without the cities. At least that’s my explanation of why its as republican as it is. Cynthia Lummis, the incumbent, recently announced she won’t seek a fifth term. Either way unless its Barbara Kuban vs Dave Freudenthal; safe R.
2008 Election Results: 33.4 Obama, 66.6 McCain

Preface:

This is my second round of redistricting. SonoftheSouth has criticized my work for it splitting up metro areas in the small states though this is less of a factor in the bigger states. In any event, I don’t want to rehash the basic procedure if I’m doing – if you missed part I its here: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2015/11/17/rethinking-redistricting-part-i-the-small-states/.

I will say however that I would like the topic to be more along the lines of “how many seats do you think each party would win” or “what do homeless incumbents do in this situation” or “who wins this head to head matchup” (which is definitely a topic in California). I’m not terribly familiar with state level politics so if you know of any legislator or county commissioner who would run in an open seat – let me know. What I don’t want is for the thread to devolve into “your procedure is illegitimate” because it involves unwinnable semantics-heavy arguments.

California

Northern California

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the northeastern part of California and is the part of the state that most resembles the intermountain rural west (the seat is 76% white, whitest in the state). Guns are probably a big deal here and there’s a general antipathy toward the environmentalists. I would call this the Redwood district. No incumbent lives here but Doug LaMalfa lives just outside the district and would run here. He should be safe ceterus paribus.
2008 Election Results: 45.1 Obama, 54.9 McCain

2nd District Doug LaMalfa R-Richvale

Comments: The 2nd district is the far northern coast. It’s a rural district and there’s a lot of Bay Area expats and a lot of pot farms here. The district does shift eastward to take in more conservative areas (in fact it takes in LaMalfa’s home), which shifts the PVI downward, but a dem should win this seat barring a catastrophic year (and no way LaMalfa runs here). Not sure who the dems run here though. Thompson has represented this area before, but he doesn’t live here and might want to run in the safer 4th.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain

3rd District Doris Matsui D-Sacramento

Comments: The 3rd district is the Sacramento district. Sacramento has always been different from the rest of the San Joaquin Valley. As opposed to the usual Scoop Jackson type dems you find in much of the SJV, the dems here are more liberal. Sacramento is the part of the state whose politics have been unchanged for decades. The congresswoman is Doris Matsui, who along with her late husband, have represented the seat for 36 years. Matsui is in her early 70s now and there’s a definite possibility that she would retire to make room for Ami Bera, who is left without a district. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.7 Obama, 32.3 McCain

4th District Mike Thompson D-St Helena, John Garamendi D-Walnut Grove

Comments: The 4th lies between the bay area and Sacramento. There are three main components – Napa County, known for its vineyards; Solano County which is more blue collar and home to the small cities of Vallejo and Fairfield, and Davis County, home to UC-Davis (which I’ve heard is pretty far left). This district has been voting dem for a long time as you can see in this map: http://www.geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/California-1956-Presidential-Election.png, so there’s no doubt what party will win it. The question is who – if Garamendi retires (he’s 70) there’s a good chance Thompson runs here. If he doesn’t, there’s still a good chance Thompson runs here and its likely that either way, Garamendi’s career may be done. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 65.8 Obama, 34.2 McCain
5th District Jared Huffman D-San Rafael

Comments: The 5th is the Marin-Sonoma district. It takes in geographically half of Sonoma county but most of the population (cities of Santa Rosa and Petaluma) of the county. Sonoma county is somewhat different than Marin as its more its own metro area and similar to Napa Valley (lots of vineyards). The district probably has one of the most dem white populations in the country and Huffman is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: 77.8 Obama, 22.2 McCain

Bay Area

6th District (Teal) Nancy Pelosi D-San Francisco
Comments: The 6th is most of San Francisco. SF is the only part of the state with a large “great wave” population of immigrants (Irish and Italian). So it was always more of a northeastern city (and like New York it is a big financial center being the hq of wells fargo). The political battle lines here are between liberal (Feinstein or Newsom) and far left (Mirkarimi or someone like that). Pelosi probably falls somewhere between that. Being 75 years old, I would think Pelosi hangs it up by 2022, especially since a lot of her allies (Waxman, Miller, Markey) have left the house. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 86.8 Obama, 13.2 McCain

7th District (Dark Gray) Mark DeSaulnier D-Concord
Comments: This is the Contra Costa district. Contra Costa has somewhat of a split personality between the labor-dem maritime areas and the more posh suburban areas. For 40 years, this was represented by George Miller, who fell more in the former category and chaired the Ed&Labor committee. Mark DeSaulnier will probably be just as liberal as Miller but will probably never chair anything given his age (63).
2008 Election Results: 72.2 Obama, 27.8 McCain

8th District (Slate Blue) Barbara Lee D-Oakland
Comments: This is probably the most radical left-wing district in the country. Oakland (which is like half the district) was once a maritime city but in the 1960s due to white flight and what not became the center of the Black Panther movement. To the north is Berkeley which until the 1960s was more of an elite place where the people too rich to live in Oakland lived but became synonymous with campus left-wing agitation. It should be no coincidence that the district has had two relatively radical members of congress over the past 45 years – Ron Dellums and Barbara Lee. Lee actually was reportedly a former black panther, but her left-wing views are no disqualification for this safe seat.
2008 Election Results: 90.7 Obama, 9.3 McCain
9th (Cyan) District Eric Swalwell D-Dublin
Comments: Not all of the East Bay across from San Francisco is a hotbed of political radicalism, Berkeley-style. The suburban areas south of Oakland – Hayward, Castro Valley – are something like outposts of Middle America on San Francisco Bay. They are places where the people who work in the East Bay’s factories live in comfortable, well-tended neighborhoods. These suburbs, and some areas east of the mountains which are some of the wealthiest in the bay area, form the bulk of California’s 9th congressional district. That being said, the congressman here for forty years was Pete Stark who was almost as liberal as Ron Dellums or Barbara Lee. Yet he wasn’t a “let’s all be friends” type of lefty but more of the street-brawler type. Dating back to the 1980s (scroll down to the bottom of this link: http://articles.latimes.com/1986-12-08/news/mn-1861_1_jim-wright) Stark always had something of a propensity for talking crap to other members of congress. Yet he seldom had any trouble in primaries until 2012 when Eric Swalwell, a 31 year old lawyer, ran against him. Many wondered how Stark would act when faced with his first challenge in a long time and Stark really went off the deep end. Had he been more courteous, Stark probably would have won, but he was too arrogant. Of the California delegation, Swalwell has a good chance to be a lifer and is clearly safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 70.8, McCain 29.2

10th (Deep Pink) District Zoe Lofgren D-San Jose, Mike Honda D-San Jose
Comments: This is the heart of San Jose, which was once an farm-to-market town for the nearby vineyards and fruit orchards and in the 1950s became a hotbed of the military industrial complex. It also has the largest Hispanic population of any bay area district (35%). That description sounds a lot like a southern California district, but this district has never had the politics that Southern California once had. As a matter of fact the district has had two liberal congresscritters over the last two 52 years. Both were on the house judiciary committee and both were pretty liberal (Don Edwards recently died at 100 and there’s probably an fbi file on him for his leftist activities). Lofgren is ranking member on the immigration subcommittee and may eventually chair the whole committee. Mike Honda lives here but he probably retires given his age. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.3 Obama, 28.7 McCain

11th (Chartreuse) District Jackie Speier D-Hillsborough
Comments: Almost 75% of the district is in Hillsborough County and the SF portion contains Candlestick Park and SF State (where Tom Lantos was once a professor). The San Mateo portion contains San Francisco’s airport. I would think that Pelosi’s district would be the most asian of any California district, but this is actually the most asian district in CA (nearly 35%). The person representing this district is Jackie Speier, whose career actually goes back before Lantos. She was a staffer for Leo Ryan who was executed by a cult, shortly after winning reelection in 1978. She ran for the seat in a 1979 special election, but lost in the primary. The seat went to a republican and then was unseated by Lantos in 1980 (one of only three R incumbents to lose that year). Lantos was congressman for 27 years and chaired foreign affairs his last year in office. After he died in 2008, Speier, who by that time had been in the state legislature for many years, finally won the seat. But having been elected at 58 rather than 29, she will likely never chair a committee. Safe D regardless.
2008 Election Results: 75.8 Obama, 24.2 McCain

12th District (Cornflower Blue)Anna Eshoo D-Atherton
Comments: The 12th is the Silicon Valley district, containing a lot of corporate headquarters for computer companies and also contains Stanford University. There are still remnants of the Military Industrial Complex as there’s still a Lockheed plant in Sunnyvale. In any event, this is one of the wealthiest districts in the country. The district does have something of a liberal republican tradition, but Eshoo has represented this seat for 23 years and has always won easily. She may retire soon though. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 73.8 Obama, 26.2 McCain

Central California

13th District No Incumbent

Comments: This seat contains the foothill areas in the Santa Clara Valley, Santa Cruz, and the agricultural areas of Watsonville, Gilroy, Morgan Hill, Hollister and Salinas. The foothill areas are people with money, Santa Cruz is full of liberal counterculture types and the rest of the district is Grapes of Wrath country. This would have been Sam Farr’s seat, but he retired. Leon Panetta’s son will probably run here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.5 Obama, 28.5 McCain

14th District Tom McClintock R-Roseville

Comments: This is the northern Sacramento suburbs along I-80. This district was probably dem leaning decades ago but then again there weren’t many people living there then. The population of this district has been growing pretty quickly since the 1970s and some of them are conservative expats from areas closer to the ocean. McClintock himself is from Ventura county. McClintock is a paulite but the district is safe enough that he should be fine. Likely bordering on safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.8 Obama, 53.2 McCain

15th District Ami Bera D-Elk Grove

Comments: The 15th is the motherlode country and also contains exurban parts of San Joaquin and Sacramento counties. Bera should hope Matsui retires so he can run in her seat because he is absolutely screwed here.
2008 Election Results: 45.4 Obama, 54.6 McCain

16th District Jerry McNerney D-Livermore

Comments: 55% of this district is in the eastern part of Alameda and Contra Costa counties which is the least dem part of the entire bay area (Bay Area portion was 63% Obama), the other 45% is in San Joaquin County which is the most dem area (SJ portion went 62% Obama) of the valley south of Sacramento. This district would probably have been winnable for the republicans until the early-to-mid 2000s. Jerry McNerney, the district’s congressman, has a background in math/science (worked in alternative energy industry and has phd in math) and his hometown of Livermore actually has an atomic energy plant. He has never won by solid margins though this is the most dem district he’s ever represented. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 63 Obama, 37 McCain

17th District Jeff Denham R-Atwater

Comments: The 17th is located between Fresno and Stockton containing Modesto, Madera and Merced with Modesto being the biggest of them. This is an agricultural/small city district that has voted for dems before, the most well known of them being Gary Condit (rep from 1989-2003). But since he was pretty conservative for a California democrat, most dems wouldn’t be able to recreate his success. The current incumbent is Jeff Denham, who is a mainstream republican. The district is 46% Hispanic but that isn’t the percentage of the electorate they are. I’d rate this seat Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.5 Obama, 50.5 McCain

18th District no incumbent

Comments: This is a sleepy seaside district. I think of this song when writing about this district: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuU12Ye9F8. The district is pretty divided, and not just by Rs and Ds. The dems are divided between high turnout retirees in the Pacific Grove area and the hispanic population in places like Santa Maria. The Monterrey County portion skews the district as it is 27% of the population and voted 68% for Obama. The rest of the district went for Obama by less than a 1000 votes. I’m not sure of who the pols are here but I think Maldonado is from here. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 55 Obama, 45 McCain
19th District David Valadao R-Hanford, Jim Costa D-Fresno

Comments: This is the most urban seat in the valley south of Sacramento. The main part of the seat is Fresno but it also contains the cities of Visalia and Hanford. This part of the state is more diverse than it gets credit for (it’s not just okies and Mexicans) – there is also a relatively large population of Armenians and Punjabis. The district is a double bunk between an underperforming incumbent (Costa) and an over performing incumbent (Valadao). The seat would probably go to Valadao unless it’s a really bad year for republicans.
2008 Election Results: 49.7 Obama, 50.3 McCain

20th District Kevin McCarthy R-Bakersfield, Devin Nunes R-Tulare

Comments: At a cursory glance, this looks like a Sierra Nevada/Death Valley district, but much of the population is in the southern end of the seat in Kern County. The southern Valley is the most conservative part of the SJV and was the first part of the valley to go republican. This is the second Valley double bunk and McCarthy, who still could be a future speaker, would be facing up against Devin Nunes who could eventually chair Ways and Means. Being the most republican seat in the state, it is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 42.2, McCain 57.8

21st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 21st contains the twin cities of Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The dynamic here is similar to Monterey County where you have both old rich white high turnout dems and young poor Hispanic low turnout dems. For 18 years this was represented by the Capps family. At 77, Capps probably didn’t want to spend the rest of her life waiting to be in the majority (and if the dems were to take control, she probably wouldn’t be committee chair). It was thought that Capps’ daughter would run here but the dems seem to have chosen mayor Helen Schneider as there candidate. It’s almost as safe as the 2000s 23rd.
2008 Election Results: Obama 64.5, McCain 35.5

22nd District Julia Brownley D-Westlake Village

Comments: Although the San Fernando Valley district is really the 23rd, the demographics of the 23rd are more comparable to what the Valley looked like 30 years ago. It doesn’t contain any high poverty areas like the 23rd and is pretty wealthy. The area in the LA county portion of the district reads like a who’s who of ritzy places to live – Malibu, Bel-Air, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Woodland Hills. The district is pretty divided – half the district is in the Ventura county portion where Obama won by 283 votes, while Obama won the LA county portion by nearly 30. What explains the difference? My guess is that the Ventura portion has less people who work in the entertainment biz, less jews and more parents with kids in the house (see CA 38). The incumbent is Julia Brownley, and this should be a Lean D district.
2008 Election Results: 57.8 Obama, 42.2 McCain

LA

23rd District (Aquamarine) Tony Cardenas D-Los Angeles Brad Sherman D-Sherman Oaks
Comments: This is the San Fernando Valley district. The Valley was basically all orange groves until the 1950s when it was more or less built overnight. Historically the partisan makeup was
1) liberal jewish dems in the southern part of the seat who worked in the entertainment biz
2) semi-loyal working class dems
3) wealthy republicans in Porter Ranch, Granada Hills, Reseda
The 1st demographic is still in the district but the 2nd and 3rd demographics have mostly gone away. Hispanics have moved into the areas of category 2 and the areas in category 3 can’t be counted on to go republican (despite the fact that the demos are largely the same). I’m not sure what happens to Brad Sherman but he could hypothetically run here against Cardenas. Although the district is 55% Hispanic, that’s nowhere near there percentage of the electorate and Sherman might have a decent shot here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.1 Obama, 28.9 McCain

24th District (Indigo) Adam Schiff D-Burbank
Comments: When I think of this district I think of old money, the rose bowl, panda express and van halen. This district was republican up until 2000, when Adam Schiff unseated James Rogan, presumably for supporting the impeachment of Clinton. That said, the fact that Rogan never got above 51% and lost by nine to Schiff means he may have lost anyways (and if not in 2000, he certainly would have been gone by 2006). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.8 Obama, 32.2 McCain

25th District (PaleVioletRed) No Incumbent
Comments: The district is sort of bisected by Ballona Creek and culturally is sort of a dividing line. North of it is Santa Monica, Holmby Hills, the UCLA campus, Venice, Marina Del Rey. Those areas have a large bohemian population and a lot of people in the film business. To the south, its less showbiz-y and more defense industry oriented (at least historically). The southern part of the district also contains LAX, Culver City (which was historically jewish, not so sure now) and east of LaCienega, there is a decent sized black population. No incumbent lives here and even though he hasn’t represented this area before, its possible Sherman could carpetbag here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 81.5 Obama, 18.5 McCain

26th District (Gray) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Hollywood district and definitely the most fashionable part of LA, – Hollywood Bowl, most of the film studios, the Whisky a-go-go, the miracle mile and sunset strip and the mansions of Beverly Hills. This would have been Henry Waxman’s district but he retired in 2014. I’m not sure who would run here but it would probably be a democrat with views similar to Waxman.
2008 Election Results: 79.5 Obama, 20.5 McCain
27th District (Spring Green) Xavier Becerra D-Los Angeles, Maxine Waters D-Los Angeles, LR Allard D-Los Angeles, Karen Bass D-Los Angeles
Comments: The seat is south central LA, the gateway cities (Huntington Park, southgate), downtown and east LA/boyle heights. Everyone is familiar with the demographic changes in California from white to Hispanic. But this area has gone from mostly black to Hispanic. It may have actually have been majority black as late as 1980. But the district is the most Hispanic district in the state (75%). The hispanics living here are some of the poorest of the California hispanics and I estimated that Obama won 87% of the Hispanic vote here. Three other incumbents live here but they’re all older and wouldn’t win a primary against Becerra. My guess is that they all retire and Becerra continues serving in congress and will eventually be promoted to congressional leadership. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 89.8 Obama, 10.2 McCain

28th District (Plum) Judy Chu D-Monterey Park, Grace Napolitano D-West Covina
Comments: The 28th district is the San Gabriel Valley and the district is bisected by the San Gabriel River. As a rule of thumb the closer you get to the mountains the nicer the real estate is and the flatter the topography, the more working class it gets. The district is 57% Hispanic but also has a large (28%) asian population, the largest asian population of any southern California district. Both Napolitano and Chu live here but I think Napolitano retires since she’s almost eighty. Chu is an unabashed lefty but it’s also a safe dem district.
2008 Election Results: 67.4 Obama, 32.6 McCain

29th District (Dark Sea Green) Ted Lieu D-Torrance
Comments: This is the South Bay district. The main industries here are defense (isn’t there some military thing in El Segundo) and shipping (San Pedro), oil and cars (Toyota is HQ in Torrance). Much of the district is white and Asians who live in the tony beachside communities. The whites here aren’t that republican but they probably vote more like Orange County than West LA. The areas further inland with more black and Hispanic populations skew the district to the dems. This district was winnable for republicans probably until the 2000s as Jane Harman had many tough elections in the 90s and only stopped once Palos Verdes was removed. The incumbent is Ted Lieu who, from what I know, is a garden variety liberal dem who occasionally breaks with his party on issues like Affirmative Action. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 60.6 Obama, 39.4 McCain

Greater Southern California

30th District Steve Knight R-Palmdale

Comments: The district is a mix between tattooed tweekers, illegals, gangbanger expats from LA (I’ve heard Palmdale called “Palmpton), religious fanatics and the military (George and Edwards AFB). The one area that votes differently is Santa Clarita which is not in the desert and more tony (similar to somewhere like Simi Valley). Decades ago the district might have been as high as R+15 but the Hispanic population has lowered the PVI. Steve Knight should be safe for the time being
2008 Election Results: 49.2 Obama, 50.8 McCain

31st District Linda Sanchez D-Lakewood, Alan Lowenthal D-Long Beach

Comments: The 31st is dominated by the city of Long Beach. Long Beach at one time had an identity separate from LA and was settled by people from the plains states (there used to be an Iowa picnic or something like that). After WWII it became more part of Greater Southern California as the areas between it and LA were swallowed up. Two incumbents live here and my guess is that Lowenthal retires since he has less seniority and is a lot older than Sanchez. In any event both are pretty liberal and this is a safe D seat.
2008 election Results: 72.7 Obama, 27.3 McCain

32nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The seat is mainly 1950s-era suburbs along I-5 starting from Montebello, to a point near Disneyland. The most well known city is Whittier which was once a small town settled by Quakers and has its own university (Whittier college). The city is well known as the hometown of Richard Nixon who was a Whittier alum and was elected to congress from Whittier in 1946 (and again in 1948 before going to the senate). This is another seat that may have been won by republicans as late as the early 2000s. I’m not sure who runs here with it being an open seat. Maybe Golden Statesman could run here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.4 Obama, 41.6 McCain

33rd District Dana Rohrabacher R-Huntington Beach

Comments: The 33rd is the oldest part of Orange County – Garden Grove, Huntington Beach and much of Anaheim (including Disneyland). Population wise, the district is evenly divided between whites, Hispanics and Asians – but the district probably has a majority white electorate. The Asians here tend to be rather conservative compared to elsewhere in the state. Dana Rohrabacher has represented this area for a long time and is something of an idiosyncratic conservative. He should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain

34th District Norma Torres D-Pomona

Comments: The 34th is a less rich version of the 24th. There are some wealthy areas in the foothills but they aren’t as wealthy compared to Pasadena and there is more less wealthy areas in the district (Pomona and parts of Ontario) to skew the median income downwards. Had he not retired in 2012, this would have been David Dreier’s district but the incumbent living here now is Norma Torres. I have no idea what Torres’ views are but if she’s a standard teacher union hack, she might have trouble here. Tilt/Lean D
2008 Election Results: 56 Obama, 44 McCain

35th District Mark Takano D-Riverside

Comments: The 35th is the heart of the Inland Empire. Decades ago, Riverside and San Bernardino were kind of a separate metro area surrounded by orange groves and were classic American Graffiti type places with drag races and drive-ins, judging by what Joan Didion wrote about this area in 1966: http://www.carljay.com/whatsnew/nothing_left.htm. The culture of this area has always been working class and the district has always been dem, even when the district was majority white. Mark Takano is the incumbent here and is pretty much an unabashed lefty. Since Pete Aguilar is left without a district, he may run here and hopefully he wins since he has more lifer potential than Takano (Aguilar is 36 and Takano is 54). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 62.7 Obama, 37.3 McCain

36th District Pete Aguilar D-Redlands, Paul Cook R-Yucca Valley, Raul Ruiz D-Palm Desert

Comments: The 36th district has similar demographics to the 30th but the areas on the wealthy end are wealthier (Palm Desert, Indian Wells) and there’s more stuff to do (Big Bear, Palm Springs). Since the district is “only” R+5 and the only majority white (52%) district in the inland empire, it must have the largest white lefty concentration in the IE. Paul Cook is the incumbent here and given his age may leave office before 2022. Raul Ruiz is basically screwed as his district is dismembered and would probably have an eye on a statewide race. The district should go republican but I’m not sure who replaces Cook when he retires – maybe Tim Donnelly. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 48 Obama, 52 McCain

37th District Ken Calvert R-Corona

Comments: The era of California’s population growing at breakneck speed is mostly a thing of the past but the 37th district is where that still is happening – the district grew 53% from 2000-2010. It is kind of a diamond shaped district with major population centers in each end (Corona, MoVal, and Murrieta). In between those areas, there is still orange grove land. The incumbent is Ken Calvert who is now on his twelfth term. He would probably be on his seventeenth term if he hadn’t narrowly lost a primary in 1982. Calvert has normally won by large margins, though he did have a DGLB incident early in his career but it was timed perfectly as it was before the 94 elections. He should continue to win reelection unless the district trends more dem. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.1 Obama, 50.9 McCain
38th District Ed Royce R-Fullerton

Comments: This area is sort of the petit bourgeoisie of Orange County, somewhat socon, and more people with kids in the house than in the neighboring 39th. So as a result you have a fairly conservative seat. This was the district that sent Bill Dannemeyer to congress, who had pretty medieval views on gays. Since then, the district’s congressman has been Ed Royce. Royce is just as conservative, but he tends to keep a low profile. He’s always been pretty safe and this is the most R district he’s ever represented. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.2 Obama, 53.8 McCain
39th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the part of Orange County that people probably think of when they think of OC. Most of the fashionable beachfront communities are in this district such as Newport and Laguna Beach. If you’re visiting OC and flying into John Wayne, you may never leave this district. Of all the OC-based districts, Obama probably did the best with whites here (around 46%) as there is definitely a bohemian presence here. It also contains Irvine which from what I know is kind of the SoCal equivalent of the research triangle and “new democrat” territory. But what makes the district winnable for dems is the inclusion of about half of Santa Ana which is almost all-Hispanic and usually 60+% dem. The district in 2008 had around an EVEN/D+1 PVI but Meg Whitman won about 56-57% of the vote here in 2010, so people split there tickets. No incumbent lives here but Mimi Walters would run here. I’d rate this tilt/Lean R to begin with.
2008 Election Results: 54.3 Obama, 45.7 McCain

40th District Mimi Walters R-Laguna Niguel; Darrell Issa R-Vista

Comments: The 40th is the trans SD-OC district and a shrunken version of the 90s 48th district. The population here is less dense than in the LA basin because the land is less flat. I’ve heard this part of Southern California called “masterplanistan”. This area was settled about thirty years after the parts of OC closer to LA. You can kind of tell by the names of the community or subdivision: “the x at y point” and the names all have faux Spanish names (rancho this or whatever). The OC and SD county areas are divided between Camp Pendleton. The military base, as well as the presence of mountains, lowers the population density substantially. The politics here are definitely more socon than the 39th but not nearly as much as somewhere like Riverside or Fresno. It’s actually the most republican district on the pacific coast and Darrell Issa should be safe.

2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

41st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 41st is the northern San Diego suburbs more or less – Poway, Escondido, San Marcos and Carlsbad. This is mostly Spanish roofed homes built in the 70s and 80s and similar to the 2000s 50th district. Bilbray would have won here in 2012 but with him probably not wanting to be a third-time freshman, the seat goes to some other local republican in the state assembly or what not. I’d say tilt/lean R in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 50.8 Obama, 49.2 McCain

42nd District Susan Davis D-San Diego, Scott Peters D-San Diego

Comments: The 42nd is the north side of San Diego and the most trendy parts of the city. Not surprisingly this has the most liberal white population in San Diego. Disconnected by MCAS Miramar from the rest of the district is Scripps Ranch which is more republican than the rest of the district and more similar to areas in the 41st. Both Susan Davis and Scott Peters live here I think. Peters I think wouldn’t want to run in the 41st and Davis I think probably would retire if faced with a h2h matchup. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 61.2 Obama, 38.8 McCain

43rd District Juan Vargas D-San Diego

Comments: The 43rd is the oldest part of San Diego and contains the downtown area. It’s not as fashionable as the 42nd though it does contain some points of attraction – the Zoo and Coronado. This is the only part of San Diego with a really large Hispanic population (51%) which lives in a corridor stretching from the areas SE of San Diego (Logan Heights) to the communities of National City, Chula Vista and San Ysidro. This is also the most dem district in San Diego and has been voting dem for a long time. This was Bob Filner’s seat but he gave it up to run for mayor (wonder if he would have been exposed had he stayed on as a house member). The current house member is Juan Vargas who is certainly less liberal than Filner. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 66.4 Obama, 33.6 McCain

44th District Duncan Hunter D-Alpine

Comments: Much of the district is in the area known as East County. This area is more secluded than the rest of San Diego County and certainly more socon than areas closer to the ocean. Despite the fact that the military bases are in the 42nd and 43rd – the reason those districts don’t vote republican is because the military members (which is a republican demo) largely don’t live there. Instead, a lot of them live here. Since 1983 (old man Hunter actually represented what is now the 43rd in 81-82) the district has been represented by the Hunters – Duncan Hunter Sr from 83-09 and his son since then. Both of them were/are reliable conservative votes, especially when it involves the military. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain

Florida

1st District Jeff Miller R-Chumuckla

Comments: This is almost like an extension of Alabama as George Wallace got about 60% of the vote here in 1968. It’s also a military heavy district with Eglin Air Force base and is one of the reasons why it’s the most R district in the state. Jeff Miller, the district’s congressman, sits on two committees important to his district – Veterans Affairs (which he chairs) and Armed Services (which he may eventually chair). Safe Republican.
2008 Election Results: 34.1 Obama, 65.9 McCain

2nd District Gwen Graham D-Tallahassee

Comments: There are some rural demosaur counties but the real electoral vitality for the democrats in the district is Leon County (Tallahassee) and since it is split, it’s hard to see Graham winning the district. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The 3rd is a mostly rural district between Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Gainesville. I’m not sure who the local officeholders are in this area but it should go to a republican. Ted Yoho might run here.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain

4th District Ander Crenshaw R-Jacksonville, Corrine Brown D-Jacksonville

Comments: Jacksonville being so far north never had the tourism or population explosion of South Florida. It also has a southern feel to it and as a result dems will probably do better upballot. But Corrine Brown is not the right type of democrat to win the district. Someone like Alvin Brown would have a better shot against Crenshaw. Likely R with Brown, Tossup with someone else.
2008 Election Results: 51 Obama, 49 McCain

5th District No Incumbent

Comments: I’ve never been here but I assume the 5th is the only republican district in Florida that has a high presence of what I would claim is the single most durable southern republican voting bloc – exurban, socon, married families with kids still in the house. It’s actually the second most republican district in the state (only a point less than the 1st) and fast growing. This would have been DeSantis district but he’s running for the senate. Someone with similar views to him will probably win this seat though its possible Crenshaw would run here.
2008 Election Results: 35.3 Obama, 64.7 McCain
6th District Ted Yoho R-Gainesville

Comments: The 6th is a tale of two (mid-sized) cities with differing politics. Gainesville is home to the University of Florida and is predictably Dem. Ocala on the other hand is a small Florida city, similar to somewhere like Lakeland, and votes republican. This kind of cancels things out leading to a slight R advantage. Ted Yoho, the district’s congressman is something of a gadfly and could lose an R+4 seat like West did (the might run in FL-3)
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: I would call this the “Volusia” district. Daytona Beach is the main attraction there with the hard-sand beaches, race-car driving and boardwalk. Further inland is the small city of Deland which is where Stetson University is. The district has been trending republican as of late and Volusia is one of the few Kerry-Romney counties out there. It might have to do with the FDR generation dying off and being replaced by the silents (too young to fight in WWII and to old to fight in Vietnam). The democrats should still contest this, which would probably be tilt R at worst in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 51.9 Obama, 48.1 McCain

8th District Dan Webster R-Winter Gardens

Comments: The 8th is mostly western Orlando exurbs. Areas further north and west are more republican while the areas to the south and east are more dem. It’s a pretty marginal district and Webster may have lost here in 2012. Webster first made the news as being the subject of a low-brow attack ad in 2010 called “Taliban Dan”. When he was first elected it was thought he would serve as a placeholder for a few years and call it quits but he was recently being discussed as a speaker candidate. Tossup.
2008 Results: 53.2 Obama, 46.8 McCain

9th District John Mica R-Winter Park

Comments: This is the urban core of the Orlando area but interestingly enough you can go to Central Florida for vacation without ever stepping foot in this district. This part of Florida used to be the most republican part of the state and was sending republicans to the legislature when the legislature was otherwise all-dem. But the area has trended hard to the dems in recent years – Orange County was one of only two Dole-Gore counties in the country. Still, the inclusion of a lot of Seminole county is what makes this district winnable for republicans. But Mica may be too conservative for the seat. So it should be a tossup.
2008 Results: 54.2 Obama, 45.8 McCain

10th District Rich Nugent R-Spring Hill

Comments: I would have thought the whitest district in Florida would be in the panhandle but this is actually the whitest district in the state (82.4%). The district is anchored by Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties which are sort of exurbs of the Tampa Area and sort of there own metro area. The district is basically a collection of master-planned retirement communities that vote republican. The district’s congressman, Rich Nugent, is retiring but there’s no reason to think it won’t elect another republican.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain

11th District Bill Posey R-Rockledge

Comments: This is the Space Coast district, being the site of Cape Canaveral and all. Bill Nelson actually represented this district in the 80s when it was far more republican at the presidential level, yet since 1994 no democrat has gotten above 45%. So it’s like the district has had two countervailing trends. This should be a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the part of Florida you see if you go to Disneyworld as it has all the attractions plus the airport, so you may never leave the seat. The district is 35 percent hispanic, the highest of any district north of Miami. The hispanics coming here are not cubans, but puerto ricans who (at least in NY) are almost as democratic as blacks. This is the fastest growing part of the state as the district (up 53% from 2000-2010.) This is an open seat and should go to a democrat, but it might switch hands if there is a strong republican year in a low turnout midterm election. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.7 Obama, 42.3 McCain

13th District Gus Bilirakis R-Palm Harbor

Comments: This is basically the northern part of the Tampa Bay area. The Pinellas and Pasco portions of the district narrowly went for Obama but what pushes the district to the republicans is the Hillsborough portion which went 55% for McCain. But that only matters at the presidential level. Gus Bilirakis (Bil-i-rake-is I think) and his father have represented the district for a combined 32 years. After getting 56ish percent in his first run in 2006, he’s never gotten below 60 percent. The district is a little less republican than his current one but it shouldn’t make too much of a difference unless it’s an open seat. Safe R with Bilirakis, Lean/Likely R without.
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain

14th District Dennis Ross R-Lakeland

Comments: The western part of the seat is basically the fast growing Tampa exurbs (the district as a whole grew 41% from 00-10) while the area to the east (Polk County) is a small Florida city and what I picture Orlando would be like without Disneyworld. The district IMO most represents the Florida Adam Carolla is talking about here (NSFW): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugmipPvTFE. The district’s congressman, Dennis Ross, has some tea party ties, but is otherwise a backbencher. He should be pretty safe.
2008 Election results: 44.8 Obama, 55.2 McCain

15th District Kathy Castor D-Tampa

Comments: The 15th district is the Tampa district. Tampa is somewhat of a blue collar community and is known for being the cigar manufacturing capital of the country. It also has a decent sized cuban population, many of which came to the United States before Castro. Kathy Castor, the district’s congresswoman, is from a well connected family in Florida politics – her father was a judge I think, her mother at one point ran for the senate and nearly won, and her sister is in the legislature. She is on the Energy and Commerce committee and could eventually chair it. The republicans came close to winning this seat in the 90s but since then it’s been pretty safe. Likely-to-Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 60.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain

16th District No Incumbent

Comments: St Petersburg has a reputation as being full of old geezers and the 16th, along with the 10th and 19th, are the three old districts in Florida with about 82ish percent of the population being over the age of 18. Much of this area has been represented by republicans for 60ish years though part of the reason was because of the incumbency of Bill Young. When he died, the dems nearly won the seat. With the district shifted further south and with it being an open seat, only Bill Young himself could have won this seat. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 56.3 Obama, 43.7 McCain

17th District Vern Buchanan R-Sarasota

Comments: The 17th is the southern part of the Tampa Bay area and in some ways is its own metro area. This part of Florida was heavily republican until the 90s and since then has stabilized at a low-to-mid single digit republican PVI. Vern Buchanan, the incumbent, nearly lost in 2006, but has won by pretty solid margins since. He has made the CREW corruption list before but he’s not blatantly corrupt so I’ll rate this Likely R.
2008 Results: 48.8 Obama, 51.2 McCain

18th District Lois Frankel D-West Palm Beach

Comments: This is northern Palm Beach county and is politically balanced out with a lot of republican Martin County. Despite the district shifting into Martin county, Frankel’s district actually stays the same PVI-wise. Basically, Frankel should continue to win unless its really a bad year.
2008 Results: 56.9 Obama, 43.1 McCain

19th District No Incumbent

Comments: The district has basically two components – the Sarasota and Charlotte county portion and the inland areas. The Sarasota and Charlotte county portions is typical of southwest Florida – lots of WASP retirees and has been consistently republican for 60-odd years. Further inland are the few parts of South Florida that haven’t been settled by outsiders and still have somewhat of a “southern” feel to it. No Incumbent lives here, but Tom Rooney may run here since this is pretty similar to his district. Safe R.
2008 Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

20th District Tom Rooney R-Okeechobee

Comments: The 20th district is the Treasure Coast district. Most of the district is pretty republican except for St Lucie county, which keeps it winnable for democrats. Rooney lists his residence in Okeechobee which is in the district but much of his seat is in the 19th. Tilt R in open seat.
2008 Results: 49.6 Obama, 50.4 McCain

21st District Curt Clawson R-Fort Meyers

Comments: The Fort Meyers area has grown enough that it can now have its own district. Lee County has always been republican though not as republican as it was circa 1952-1988. The district’s congressman, Curt Clawson, was elected in a 2014 special election, after Trey Radel resigned when it was discovered cocaine was being shipped to his house. Clawson, like Radel, is a tea party type and should be safe.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain

28th District DW Schultz D-Weston

Comments: This is sort of a leftovers seat in South Florida with a lot of federally protected property. The key parts of the district are western Broward county, Monroe county and Naples. Naples is the most republican part of the district and not unlike Fort Meyers. The Broward county portion isn’t as dem as other parts of the county, but the most dem part of the district. Monroe county is a swing county divided between gays/bohemians in Key West and republican retirees in the other parts of the county. Debbie Wasserman Schultz lives here but obviously couldn’t win here so I see Mario Diaz-Balart running here since he’s represented a lot of this area before. Safe R.
2008 Results: 47.8 Obama, 52.2 McCain

South Florida:

22nd District Ted Deutch (Sienna) D-Boca Raton
Comments: This is a condo-heavy district stretching from Lake Worth to Boca Raton and from the ocean to Loxahatchee. One of the key differences between the voting behavior of the retirees in Broward/Palm Beach and the rest of the state is where the people are from. Broward and Palm Beach counties did initially vote like Southwest Florida but in the 1970s, there was a large influx of jews from Miami which swung the counties leftward. It’s not just jews necessarily but people from the northeast in general. The remaining part of the state is mostly (obviously overgeneralizing) midwestern WASP types. Ted Deutch, despite the fact that he’s younger than a lot of his constituents, shares the profile as he’s a jew from Pennsylvania. His committee assignments are similar to that of former congressman Howard Berman – Foreign Affairs: where he has a pro-AIPAC voting record; and Judiciary – where he lines up with the liberals on culture war type issues. He could chair either committee in the future. Safe D.
2008 Results: 63.5 Obama, 36.5 McCain

23rd District (Aquamarine) No Incumbent
Comments: This district is pretty similar to Deutch’s district. There’s no incumbent here but Debbie Wasserman-Schultz probably runs here as its the whiter part of Broward county. Safe D.
2008 results: 63.9 Obama, 36.1 McCain

24th District (Indigo) No Incumbent
Comments: Among the Caucasian voters in the district, its probably pretty similar to the 22nd and 23rd districts, but it has a larger black and hispanic population which makes it the second most democratic district in the state. He lives just outside the district but it would make sense that Alcee Hastings would run here since it has a semi-large (29%) black population. I think he has a good chance of losing renomination or just retiring based on his corruption (which goes back to before he was in congress) and age in general (nearing 80). Safe D.
2008 Results: 70.2 Obama, 29.8 McCain
25th District (Pale Violet Red) Frederica Wilson D-Miami; Alcee Hastings D-Miramar
Comments: This is mostly northern Dade county which is where much of the black population lives, and some of Broward county. The district has the largest (37%) black population of any Florida district and not surprisingly is the state’s most democratic. Both Wilson and Hastings live here but I think Hastings runs in the 24th. Safe D.
2008 Results: 74.6 Obama, 25.4 McCain

26th District (Gray) IR Lehtinen R-Miami, Mario Diaz-Balart R-Miami, Carlos Curbelo R-Miami
Comments: This is the heart of Miami with the mansions, the artesian wells (which are actually in coral gables as is the u), the causeway and the airport. This is a heavily cuban district (70% hispanic) and the election results here are skewed by the small black population in the northern part of the seat. The cubans leaned or lean republican due to fierce anticommunism but with the exception of Rubio, many of them are not terribly conservative and more like NY Rs – machine guys with ties to sketchy outsiders (think Tony Montana). Three incumbents live here but I think only IRL runs here because it’s somewhat harder for a republican to win this seat and she would have the best chance. Lean R with IRL, Lean D without.
2008 Results: 55.3 Obama, 44.7 McCain

27th District (Spring Green) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the more suburban part of Dade county, stretching along the turnpike. It’s also heavily hispanic (70%) and the more republican part of Dade county. This is Curbelo’s seat but IRL might run here if she doesn’t want to run in the 26th (though she might retire in this scenario). Given the volatility of the hispanic population in Florida, I’d peg this as a tossup.
2008 Results: 51.7 Obama, 48.3 McCain

North Carolina

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 1st is the outer banks district, which is a popular tourist area and includes places like Kitty Hawk. This is a bucolic district where the pace of things are slower. The biggest cash crop in these areas is tobacco. This part of the state is very ancestrally democrat so don’t let the PVI fool you. It’s possible Walter Jones Jr could run here but otherwise this is an open seat and should be a tossup.
2008 Election Results: 48.3 Obama, 51.7 McCain

2nd District GK Butterfield D-Wilson, Walter Jones R-Farmville

Comments: This part of North Carolina is and always has been the district with the largest black population (the seat is 37% black) and used to give the democrats Soviet type numbers. The district is still a predominately rural, tobacco type district but the Raleigh metro area is starting to move into this district. Two congressman live here but Jones likely runs in the 3rd. GK Butterfield, the incumbent, likely loses the primary to a more traditional North Carolina democrat. Tilt D with Butterfield, Likely D without.
2008 Election Results: 54 Obama 46 McCain

3rd District Renee Elmers R-Dunn David Rouzer R-McGee Crossroads

Comments: The district kind of follows I-40 from Wilmington to a point near Raleigh. This is a military heavy district as it includes Camp Lejuene. Two congressmembers live here and a third is also likely to run in what is the only solidly republican district in eastern NC. Walter Jones, however, could run in the 1st, which his father represented. Elmers could run in the 2nd or 5th but that too might be a bridge too far. Same for Rouzer who might have trouble in the 7th. Both Elmers and Jones are both idiosyncratic and Rouzer is a backbencher. I would probably give Jones more of an advantage since he’s been there longer and has represented more of the district. But its possible Jones retires It should be close to a safe R seat.
2008 Election Results: 43.7 Obama, 56.3 McCain

4th District George Holding R-Raleigh

Comments: This is the Raleigh based district. Raleigh is the state capital and sits right on the dividing line between the coastal plain and the piedmont. The district has also trended dem as George W Bush won this seat as late as 2000. In any event Holding is pretty much screwed. I’m not sure who the democrats would run but I’d put this as Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.5 Obama, 41.5 McCain

5th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is a “disguised district”. While it looks like a typical small town textile district, 69% of the population lives in the Wake, Durham and Orange county portions, known as “the research triangle”. The creative class economy has attracted people from all over, making the 5th the fastest growing district in the state. The most notable landmark in the district is UNC which is a major university (and very liberal) and with a reputable basketball team. No incumbent lives here, but it should go dem. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.9 Obama, 42.1 McCain
6th District David Price D-Durham

Comments: The 6th district stretches from Durham to Greensboro and then north to the Virginia border. Durham is a lot different than the rest of the district as it’s a strongly dem college town (and with a large black population). The rest of the district is classic piedmont country, dominated by textile, tobacco and furniture. The incumbent is David Price who was a former Duke professor. He is one of the dems who lost in 1994 but won in 1996. He is now the No 6 dem on the house appropriations committee and ranking member of the public housing subcommittee. But he is also 75 and will probably retire soon. Not sure who would replace him, but the district should remain dem.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: This district stretches from the Atlantic coast to the sand hills, along the South Carolina border. The biggest city is Fayetteville which is a military town with nearby Fort Bragg and sort of has a reputation as being seedy (I’ve heard it called fayettenam). The district also has a relatively large native American population (8%). Rouzer could run here but I don’t think he could win and runs in the 3rd instead. As for the democrats, Kissell could run here but other than that I don’t know. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 53.5 Obama, 46.5 McCain

8th District Richard Hudson R-Concord

Comments: This is a mix between piedmont textile country and the charlotte exurbs. The district is mostly republican except for a few areas in the far eastern part of the district. Richard Hudson, who I think barely lives in the district should be pretty safe here.
2008 Election Results: 40.3 Obama, 59.7 McCain

9th District Robert Pittenger R-Charlotte

Comments: Charlotte is the largest city in the state and unlike other piedmont cities never had much of a textile or furniture industry. The main industry here is banking. It also started voting republican earlier than other parts of the state, electing a republican congressman as early as 1952. This part of NC has experienced a kind of political parabola starting out dem, then going republican and then going back to the democrats. In fact, despite being the most dem district in the state, GW Bush may have won it in 2000. This all bodes badly for Bob Pittenger, who had a tough race in 2012. He’s already 67 so he probably just retires. A likely dem nominee would be Anthony Foxx.
2008 Election Results: 62.8 Obama, 37.2 McCain

10th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 10th district is the I-85 district, going between Charlotte and the Triad. Like the 8th it’s a mix of piedmont small manufacturing cities and charlotte exurbs. Lexington, on the NE corner is supposedly the barbeque capital of the world. The 10th is another district that has been voting republican longer than the rest of the state and should go to a republican. It’s an open seat though so I’m not sure who it should go to. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain
11th District Alma Adams D-Greensboro Mark Walker R-Greensboro

Comments: This is the Greensboro-High Point district. This is a typical piedmont city with typical piedmont industries. It’s generally a middle-of-the road district and two incumbents living here are too far right or too far left to win. A more new-dem/blue-dog could probably easily win here. Otherwise hard to tell what happens. Tossup if these two run against each other.
2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: There are two components to this district – the Forsyth portion and the rest of the state. Forsyth County (Winston-Salem) is a tobacco-town and also home to Wake Forest University. Winston-Salem (Forsyth is almost 40% of district) has been trending dem as of late and will be the basis of any dem victory here. The rest of the district is 64% McCain and has been voting republican for awhile, some of it going back to the founding of the party. Although she doesn’t live here, this would be Virginia Foxx’s district. Foxx had a tough race or two in 2006 and 2008 and with an R+10 district could come close to losing. Lean R for now, safer without Foxx (who’s old and may retire anyways)
2008 Election Results: 44 Obama, 56 McCain

13th District Patrick McHenry R-Cherryville, Virginia Foxx R-Banner Elk

Comments: The 13th is where the piedmont meets the mountains and home to a lot of furniture manufacturing companies. Some of this area hasn’t elected a democrat to congress since the 60s and this is the most republican district in the state. Both Foxx and McHenry live here but this is clearly McHenry’s seat. The seat should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 38.2 Obama, 61.8 McCain

14th District Mark Meadows R-Cashiers

Comments: The 14th is surprisingly moderate for a mountain district. I would assume it would vote more like Eastern Tennessee or North Georgia. Even removing counterculture-heavy Asheville doesn’t explain it. In any event, Meadows doesn’t seem like an impressive incumbent and could lose even if Schuler doesn’t run. Tilt R.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain

Alaska At-Large Don Young R-Fort Yukon

Comments: This is one of several at-large states covered in this series which effectively draws itself and obviously can’t be gerrymandered. Don Young is anything but young as he is 82 and been in congress half his life. He is a typical Alaska republican and is borderline corrupt, but I don’t think the Alaska voters really care that much about it. He has had close calls before (like in 2008) but unless he’s actually charged with something (I guess he’s Dapper Don), he should be ok. I do expect him to retire soon. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 38.9 Obama, 61.1 McCain

in case you missed parts I and II:

Rethinking Redistricting Part I: The Small States

Rethinking Redistricting Part II: CA-FL-NC-AK

Again I want to emphasize that the comments should be more about the likely outcome of the elections and primaries and not the procedural (your algorithm is wrong because of x y and z)

Ohio

1st District Steve Chabot R-Cincinnati

Comments: This is more or less the Cincinnati district taking in almost the entire city and some western suburbs. Cincinnati is known for having a large German population, but unlike those in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin etc – they came earlier and are generally lumped in as “old stock” Americans. So the German population has been pretty consistently republican for awhile. What makes the district winnable for dems is the black (30%) population that started coming over after WWII. Steve Chabot is the incumbent, who, after serving 14 years from 1995 to 2009, returned to office in 2011. Most congressman who lose that much seniority tend not to run again but Chabot did and was put on his old committee (Judiciary). Chabot is probably too far right for this seat though and could lose in a neutral-to-dem year. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 55.4 Obama, 44.6 McCain

2nd District Brad Wenstrup R-Cincinnati

Comments: This is the eastern part of the Cincinnati area and contains some of the more fashionable areas of the city like Indian Hill. The Hamilton County portion is 54% of the electorate, 81% white and voted for McCain by five. The remaining 46% is 93% white and voted for McCain by 31! The incumbent is Brad Wenstrup who is a tea party congressman but given the district, it’s not politically disadvantageous. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 40.9 Obama, 59.1 McCain

3rd District Mike Turner R-Dayton

Comments: The third district is the more republican (read-white) areas of Montgomery County, some ultraconservative exurban areas between Dayton and Cincinnati and a few rural republican counties that are geographically much of the district but only a small % of the electorate. Mike Turner hasn’t had much trouble winning reelection in a less republican district and certainly wouldn’t in a district like this. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 40.4 Obama, 59.6 McCain

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: The fourth is a group of counties, mostly rural but with some having small cities, in western Ohio. This is a deeply conservative part of the nation, a sort of Grant Woodish enclave set in industrial Middle America. The conservatism of the fourth runs so deep that it is often the most Republican district in Ohio. No incumbent lives here but this would definitely be Jim Jordan’s district. He’s basically the Ted Cruz of the house and this seat would be the most republican district he’s represented. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 35.6 Obama, 64.4 McCain

5th District Del Latta R-Bowling Green

Comments: There are really two parts of the district – the areas near Toledo and the rest of the seat. The area near Toledo is pretty industrial, especially near the Maumee River. That is what supplies a lot of the democratic votes. The rest of the seat is classic rural/small city Ohio, settled by WASPs and old-stock Germans, who have been voting republican for as long as the party has been around. The incumbent is Del Latta whose father also represented the seat from 1959-1989. Both he and his father were/are hardcore conservatives but the fifth as currently drawn is more dem than any of the various incarnations of the fifth that he or his father represented. So someone might be able to give Latta a tough race. Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 53.2 Obama, 46.8 McCain

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: The sixth district of Ohio is a rural district in the southern part of the state.
The district has a quasi-southern, small-town feel to it. The district is pretty similar, at least PVI-wise, to the 1990s sixth district. No incumbent lives here and while it is more dem than the PVI would suggest (its like Kentucky), it should go to a republican. It’s actually possible Johnson runs here.
2008 Election Results: 45.2 Obama, 54.8 McCain

7th District Pat Tiberi R-Galena

Comments: To a casual observer, the seventh district looks like a classic central-Ohio small town republican district – but a good deal of the seat is in the northern Columbus suburbs, which is just as republican as the surrounding countryside. The incumbent is Pat Tiberi, who replaced John Kasich when he retired from congress in 2000. Back then, the district took in a lot of Columbus and without it, he is definitely safe.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain

8th District No Incumbent

Comments: The eighth is another “disguised” district in that it looks like an R+15-R+20 but forty percent of the district is in Montgomery County. The Montgomery County portion went for Obama in 2008 by 27 points and is 37% black. The remaining sixty percent went for McCain by 24 points. Since more of the district is not in Montgomery County, it translated into a three point McCain win. This would have been John Boehner’s district and having a district far less republican than what he’s represented, the dems might have thrown everything they could at him. Lean/Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 51.7 McCain, 46.3 Obama

9th District Marcy Kaptur R-Toledo

Comments: The ninth is another divided district. 58% of the seat is in Lucas County. This portion went for Obama with 63%. The other 42% of the seat went for McCain by eighteen and is typical of rural western Ohio. Marcy Kaptur is the incumbent here and is the second longest serving women house member. She’s also the most senior dem on the house appropriations committee and there’s a possibility she could one day chair it (especially since Nita Lowey will likely retire before she does). She has usually over performed generic D here so I’d put this at Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 54.4 Obama, 45.6 McCain
10th District No Incumbent

Comments: Cleveland has to be one of the most segregated metro areas in the country – the Cuyahoga river being the major demarcation point. It takes in the west side of the city and many of its suburbs. The Cleveland portion of the seat has a lot of descendants from the Polish, Czech, Hungarian etc immigrants who came to Cleveland in the early 1900s and was once known as the “cosmo wards”. The district in general has sort of an archie bunker type mentality to it but it still votes for democrats. This would have been Kucinich’s district, but he’s probably done with politics. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 60.9 Obama, 39.1 McCain

11th District Marcia Fudge D-Warrensville Heights David Joyce R-Russell Township

Comments: The 11th is the east side of Cleveland and takes in much of Cuyahoga County’s black population which stretches like a boomerang from Euclid to downtown and then southeast towards Warrensville Heights. The district takes both of the socioeconomic bookends in the Cleveland area – the east side of the city which is very poor and some of the wealthiest areas like Hunting Valley, Gates Mills and Bratenahl. Overall the district has been bleeding population for decades and during the 2000s, the city lost 15 percent of its population. Both Fudge and Joyce live here but obviously Joyce runs elsewhere. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 80.8 Obama, 19.2 McCain

12th District Joyce Beatty D-Columbus

Comments: The twelfth district is the heart of Columbus, which is the capital city. Columbus used to be a conservative central-Ohio city, not unlike Cincinnati or Indianapolis, but Columbus has become kind of like a Midwestern Research Triangle of sorts and is home to Ohio State University. The incumbent is Joyce Beatty, who defeated a white democrat in the 2012 primary. I was kind of surprised by this since the district is only 30 percent black and even in the democratic primary, they are not the majority. Blacks usually have a tough time winning districts that aren’t already majority black but apparently Beatty has the ability to. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 66.3 Obama, 33.7 McCain
13th District Jim Renacci R-Wadsworth

Comments: The 13th is anchored by Lorain County which is part Cleveland exurbs and part a metro area of its own with the industrial cities of Lorain and Elyria. Also included is Medina which is an exurb of both Cleveland and Akron. The district as a whole is pretty marginal. Jim Renacci lives here but I’m not sure if he would run here. In any event, a lot of this seat went dem even in 1994 when Sherrod Brown was the house member so I’d rate this Tossup with Renacci and Lean D in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 52.8 Obama, 47.2 McCain

14th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 14th takes in much of Akron, some Cleveland exurbs, and Portage County which isn’t really a part of any metro area. It’s an open seat and someone like Betty Sutton could probably make a comeback here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.4 Obama, 41.6 McCain
15th District Steve Stivers R-Columbus, Jim Jordan R-Urbana

Comments: I was actually surprised by two things about two seats – first how swingy the Franklin County portion (3/4 of the seat) is – it only went for Obama by four points. Second the rest of the seat isn’t as conservative as I thought (I thought it would vote more like OH-4) – going for McCain by nine. That probably has to do with the inclusion of the industrial dem city of Springfield. Both Jim Jordan and Steve Stivers live here but Jordan would have a tough primary here (and probably GE too) and would obviously run in the open and far safer fourth. Although the reputation for the current crop of republicans elected in 2010/2012/2014 is as tea party rabble-rousers, what’s far more common is guys like Stivers – the low key backbencher types. He should be close to safe here.
2008 Election Results: 49.5 Obama, 50.5 McCain

16th District Bob Gibbs R-Lakeville

Comments: The district takes in western Stark County (Massillon) the southern part of Summit County and Wooster, Ashland and Mansfield. This is sort of where democrat northeastern Ohio meets republican central Ohio. Bob Gibbs is the incumbent here but considering Renacci might run here, its possible he runs in the 18th. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.8 Obama, 50.2 McCain

17th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 17th is a classic labor dem district taking in Youngstown and Canton and tempered my some swing/light red areas. No one lives here but I would think Tim Ryan would run here. Ryan has been in office since he was 29 and is on the house appropriations committee which he will likely chair someday. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 55.6 Obama, 44.4 McCain

18th District Bill Johnson R-Marietta

Comments: The 18th goes from the West Virginia border almost to Columbus. As a general rule of thumb the closer to the river you get, the more ancestrally dem it gets and the further you get from it, the more conventionally republican it is. Bill Johnson lives here but its possible that he runs in the sixth and Gibbs runs here. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 46.9 Obama, 53.1 McCain
19th District Tim Ryan D-Niles

Comments: This is the northeast corner of the state. The seat takes in the Cleveland exurbs, industrial Trumbull County and the rural areas in between. It also takes in the small lakeside city of Ashtabula which has its own identity. This is a swingy type of seat and while Tim Ryan lives here, I think he runs in the 17th. David Joyce has represented much of this seat and I think he runs here. His voting record is similar to his predecessor Steve LaTourette (i.e. RMSP type) so he has a good shot here. Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 55.1 Obama, 44.9 McCain

Illinois

Chicago Area

1st District (Blue) Bobby Rush D-Chicago
Comments: The district is 71% black – the blackest district in the country. This is the heart of the Southside and the district (as currently drawn) has been majority black since the 1950s or possibly even earlier. The seat has been bleeding population for a longtime and in the 2000s, lost 15% of its population. The congressman is Bobby Rush, who could potentially chair Energy and Commerce but I think he retires by 2022. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 96.6 Obama, 3.4 McCain

2nd District (Green) Robyn Kelly D-Matteson
Comments: The 2nd is majority black (52%) but its not as black as the 1st and could elect a white democrat in an open seat. The seat may have been 75-80% white forty years ago. The seat was Jesse Jackson Jr’s who at this time four years ago was fairly young (46) for being in office sixteen years and would probably have chaired Appropriations eventually. But he ran into legal troubles and was replaced by Robyn Kelly, who, when you consider was 56 as opposed to 30, will likely never have much seniority. Safe D either way.
2008 Election Results: 82 Obama, 18 McCain

3rd District (Dark Magenta) No Incumbent
Comments: Will County has usually been split up among several districts but this is effectively the Will County seat. I have no idea who runs here – probably a state rep or state senator from either party. It should be a tossup in an open seat
2008 Election Results: 55.8 Obama, 44.2 McCain

4th District (Red) Dan Lipinski D-Western Springs
Comments: The 4th is the southwest side of Chicago and the seat is bisected by the Stevenson Expressway (I-55). The two main ethnic groups here are poles and Mexicans (it’s actually the most Hispanic district in the Midwest). The district is 43% Hispanic and 42% white – but Hispanics don’t vote and whites are the majority of the electorate. Dan Lipinski, the district’s congressman, is something of an old school pork-barreling dem and may eventually chair the house public works committee. The Daily Kos types have always wanted to primary him, but no primary challenger has ever gotten above 26%. So he should have the seat for as long as he wants.
2008 Election Results: 68.7 Obama, 31.3 McCain
5th District (Gold) Mike Quigley D-Chicago, Luis Gutierrez D-Chicago
Comments: The 5th is the west side of Chicago is a smorgasbord of neighborhoods and demographics. The far northwest side of Chicago was part of the old 11th district and is kind of like Staten Island – an urban white ethnic place that often votes republican. In the far southeast is much of the west side black ghetto which is the only large concentration of blacks in the Chicago area outside of the south side (is there a historical reason for that?). Then you have the major Hispanic areas in the Hermosa and Cragin areas that tend to be more Puerto Rican than Mexican. The rest of the seat is older suburbs that were built around the time O’Hare Airport (also in the seat) opened. The overall district is 39% white, 35% Hispanic and 21% black. This will probably be a Mike Quigley and Luis Gutierrez matchup, with Quigley having the likely edge. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 78.7 Obama, 21.3 McCain

6th District (Teal) Peter Roskam R-Wheaton, Randy Hultgren R-Winfield
Comments: The 6th is the DuPage district as almost the entire county is in this seat and the seat is entirely within the county. The Chicago suburbs historically voted more like those in Southern California or Texas than other Midwestern/northeastern ones – Barry Goldwater for instance got 59% of the vote in DuPage County. Beginning in the 1990s, the county has trended leftward and is now more of a marginal or slightly republican area. The district’s congressman, Peter Roskam (Hultgren lives here but would run in the 12th) has ties to both the RMSP and RSC types and is well-liked both at home and in Washington. He was held to 59% in 2012 (and in this seat, may have gotten below 55%) but he should be safe in the short-term.
2008 Election Results: 55.4 Obama, 44.6 McCain

7th District (Dark Gray) Danny Davis D-Chicago
Comments: The 7th is the downtown Chicago district and contains much of the fashionable parts of the city. It’s also one of the oldest districts in the country (84.7% of the population is over 18). Danny Davis has a district in which about half the seat is new and the character has changed from a poor minority one to a somewhat wealthy district that is 55% white (and when you consider that half the nonwhite population is Hispanic, its probably closer to a 65% white electorate). He’s old and may be retiring soon. I’m not sure who would run here if he retired but it’s obviously safe dem.
2008 Election Results: 82.5 Obama, 17.5 McCain

8th District (Slate Blue) No Incumbent
Comments: The 8th is the panhandle district which votes similar to DuPage County though maybe a few points more dem. This would have been Tammy Duckworth’s seat but with her running for the senate, I’m not sure whose running. It should be lean D.
2008 Election Results: 59.6 Obama, 40.4 McCain
9th District (Cyan) Jan Schakowsky D-Evanston
Comments: When the dems won the tenth district in 2012, many people were saying how it was the first time they won the seat in 34 years. But in reality, this is more similar to the 1970s 10th district. The ninth is probably the wealthiest district in the Midwest (if not maybe second or third) and probably the most asian and jewish seat in the Midwest. Jan Schakowsky is the incumbent here and is an abrasive moonbat. I think she retires by 2022 and hopefully a less militant lefty wins here. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 71.8 Obama, 28.2 McCain

Rest-of-State

10th District Robert Dold R-Lake Forest

Comments: The tenth is the Lake County district. Robert Dold is the incumbent here and this is the most dem district to be held by a republican. That being said, the 08 PVI is probably inflated as Bush won the seat in 2004. Dold should breathe a sigh of relief but the dems would be dummies not to contest this seat. Tilt/Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 59.6 Obama, 40.4 McCain

11th District Bill Foster D-Aurora

Comments: The 11th is the fastest growing district in the Midwest as the district’s population grew by about 35% in the 2000s. With that said, it still didn’t make the list of the top 10 fastest growing districts in the country. The incumbent is Bill Foster who was a former scientist. Given that he had a close call in 2014 and the district is less dem, he could have a fight on his hands. Maybe Jim Oberweis could run here. Tossup
2008 Election Results: 55.7 Obama, 44.3 McCain

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: The twelfth district is Rockford, the NW Chicago exurbs, and some areas that could be defined as either part of the Chicago or Rockford area. Rockford is more labor-heavy and more marginal while the rest of the district is some of the most republican areas in the state (the only time Boone or McHenry counties went dem was in 2008). No incumbent lives here but I think Hultgren would run here. Likely R
2008 Election Results: 54.5 Obama, 45.5 McCain

13th District Cheri Bustos D-East Moline

Comments: The 13th votes similar to eastern Iowa or southwestern Wisconsin. The area is generally pacifistic and German/Scandinavian in origin. There’s also a decent labor presence here too. Obama also didn’t drop off as badly from 2012 here, vis-à-vis other parts of the state. Cheri Bustos is the incumbent here and is sort of a Stupak or Oberstar kind of dem. She would have a tougher race here, but I’d rate this lean D.
2008 Election Results: 56 Obama, 44 McCain

14th District Adam Kinzinger R-Manteno

Comments: This is the first seat that can be described as “downstate”. Much of the population is in the small cities of Danville, Kankakee, Champaign-Urbana, and Bloomington. The rural areas in the seat are some of the more republican areas of the state. Given his age (37), Kinzinger could be a future committee chair or party leader. Likely R.

2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain
15th District Darin LaHood R-Dunlap

Comments: This part of Illinois has had a long string of well known republican congressman. The first of these was Everett Dirksen from 1933-1949 who later became a senator, then Harold Velde from 1949-1957 who was a cold war-era red baiter, then Bob Michel from 1957-1995 who was the republican majority leader from 81-95, Roy LaHood from 95-09 who later became Secretary of Transportation and Aaron Schock from 09-15 whose high-flying lifestyle finally caught up to him. The new congressman is Darin LaHood who is Roy’s son. He’ll probably be a run-of-the-mill Midwestern republican and will probably never have trouble winning reelection.
2008 Election Results: 49 Obama, 51 McCain

16th District Rodney Davis R-Taylorville

Comments: This is a typical rural/small town district in downstate Illinois. The population is mostly old-stock WASPs so it’s a fairly republican district. Rodney Davis is the incumbent here and with a safer seat should have no problems.
2008 Election Results: 49 Obama, 51 McCain

17th District John Shimkus R-Collinsville

Comments: This is easily the most winnable downstate district for democrats since there’s a decent labor movement here. Much of the population lives in the part of the seat near St Louis. Shimkus lives in the district but its hard to know whether he would swap seats with Bost. I’d rate this seat a tossup or maybe a slight R lean.
2008 Election Results: 54.6 Obama, 45.4 McCain

18th District Mike Bost R-Murphysboro

Comments: This seat contains all of the “Little Egypt” area in southern Illinois. I’m not sure how it got its name but there’s a small city in the seat called Cairo. This part of the state is very poor and has a somewhat southern feel to it. It’s also the only part of the state with any real coal presence so the seat probably swung hard R in 2012. Mike Bost lives here though its possible he might swap districts with Shimkus. He is the only member of congress I know of who was a fire fighter. Either of them would be pretty safe here but there are some dem state reps/senators here. Likely-to-Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 48.8 Obama, 51.2 McCain

Michigan

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 1st is really two areas. The first is the Upper Peninsula or the UP. This area is a little different from the rest of the state and more like MN or WI. It actually has a large Scandinavian population and has historically been more receptive to left-wing ideas (this was the only part of the state where Lafollette did pretty well in 1924). The other half of the district is more typical WASP small-town Michigan republican turf. The first is the type of district the dems need to regain a majority in the HOR and the dems have given Benishek close races before. With him retiring, it’s time for the dems to strike while the iron is hot. Tossup
2008 Election Results: 50.9 Obama, 49.1 McCain

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: No one lives here but Huizenga has represented a lot of this seat. It’s interesting how much more winnable for dems the district gets once you remove Ottawa County. He could take his chances in the third but even if he ran here, I’d rate this tossup.
2008 Election Results: 53.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain

3rd District Bill Huizenga R-Zeeland, Justin Amash R-Grand Rapids

Comments: This has to be the most Dutch congressional district in the United States. For whatever reason Dutch expats are way more right-wing than people who stayed in Holland. Anyways, it’s possible that Huizenga and Amash come to an agreement that Huizenga runs here and Amash runs in the fourth since I doubt BH wants to run in the new second. This should be a safe R district and the most R seat in the state.
2008 Election Results: 45.8 Obama, 54.2 McCain

4th District John Moolenar R-Midland

Comments: The fourth is a collection of small cities in upstate Michigan – Midland, Bay City and Saginaw. This is a labor heavy district and Moolenar definitely has a fight on his hand – especially if Jim Barcia runs here. Lean D with Barcia, Tossup otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 57.5 Obama, 42.5 McCain

5th District No Incumbent

Comments: The fifth district takes in the outer part of Kent County and stretches out to a point near Lansing. The district is a lot more republican than I thought which is why I think Amash might run here since its just as R as his old district. It should be Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 48.7 Obama, 51.3 McCain
6th District Fred Upton R-St Joseph

Comments: The sixth is in southwest Michigan and the biggest city here is Kalamazoo. Fred Upton has represented this district for nearly thirty years and his margins have been declining as of late (55-56% in the last two outings, lower than his 06-08 numbers). When you consider the fact that dems haven’t really put up there A-team here, it means they could eventually win the seat. But a lot depends on when/if Upton retires, who the dems run and who the Rs run. If Hoogendyk runs here, I’d have this Lean D. In an open seat without Hoogendyk, Tossup and with Upton, Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 55.7 Obama, 44.3 McCain

7th District Tim Walberg R-Tipton

Comments: The district is tucked away between Lansing, Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo, South Bend, and Fort Wayne. It’s the most WASP-part of the state and the most R part of the seat is the area near the Ohio and Indiana border. The source of the D strength here comes in the two small cities here – Battle Creek and Jackson. The incumbent here is Tim Walberg who is probably the most conservative member of the Michigan delegation and usually seems to be on thin ice. I’d rate this Lean R in neutral to republican years and tossup in neutral to dem years.
2008 Election Results: 50.9 Obama, 49.1 McCain

8th District Dan Kildee D-Flint Township

Comments: The eighth is the most dem district in outstate Michigan and is dominated by Flint – a labor dem stronghold and the college town (MSU) and state capital of Lansing. Dan Kildee is on his second term and the nephew of Dale Kildee, representative from 1977-2013. This is actually Michael Moore’s home district and Kildee is actually friends with Moore. This district is pretty close to Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 61.9 Obama, 38.1 McCain

9th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the thumb district taking in Port Huron, some of Genesee county and the rural part of Macomb county. The person who runs here will probably be Bishop or Trott since they may have to face off in the eleventh district. If one of them runs here – Lean R. Otherwise tossup.
2008 Election Results: 53.8 Obama, 46.2 McCain

Detroit Area

10th District (Deep Pink) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Macomb County district. Macomb County doesn’t have the posh reputation of Oakland County. I’ve only been to the Detroit area once before but from what I know, Macomb sort of has the reputation of being the redneck part of the Detroit area – think ICP, Kid Rock, Eminem fans or what have you. Macomb has been all over the place politically going from being heavily dem before the 1970s, then being “Reagan Democrat” territory and then reverting to being sort of a bellwether in the 90s. This was Candace Miller’s seat but with her retiring, the seat has a good chance of being won by a democrat. This is somewhat of an ancestrally dem seat and much of the seat was held by democrats from 1959-2003.
2008 Election Results: 54.6 Obama, 45.4 McCain

12th District (Cornflower Blue) Dave Trott R-Birmingham, Sandy Levin D-Southfield, Brenda Lawrence D-Southfield
Comments: The twelfth is the more densely populated part of Oakland County and not surprisingly the more dem part of the county too. Three incumbents live here but this is clearly Sandy Levin’s district. There is a possibility though that given his age (84) he may retire since he may not want to spend the rest of his life waiting to become Ways and Means chair. In that event I’m not sure who would run here but it would be safe D.
2008 Election Results: 64.5 Obama, 35.5 McCain

13th District (Dark Salmon) No Incumbent
Comments: A third of the district is in Washtenaw County which is moonbat-heavy (the Washtenaw portion went 76% Obama) while the remaining two-thirds went for Obama by about six points. No incumbent lives here but I could see Lynn Rivers, who represented some of this seat in the 90s, run here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 61.1 Obama, 38.9 McCain

14th District (Olive) John Conyers D-Detroit
Comments: The 14th is much of Detroit and some of Macomb and Oakland counties. 37 percent of the district is in either Macomb, Oakland or the Grosse Pointes. This area is 78% white and about 60% Obama. The remaining 63% is 81% black and 95% Obama. The incumbent here is John Conyers who, like Levin, may retire soon. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 83 Obama, 17 McCain

15th District (Dark Orange) Debbie Dingell D-Dearborn
Comments: The district is made up of the west side of Detroit and the most dem Wayne County suburbs like Dearborn, Inkster and River Rouge. Dingell lives here but there’s a possibility I think that Lawrence runs here since it has the second largest black population (37%) and Dingell runs in the 16th. In any event, safe D.
2008 Election Results: 75.4 Obama, 24.6 McCain

11th District Mike Bishop R-Rochester

Comments: The eleventh is by far the most republican district in Greater Detroit. I’m also under the impression that the wealthier parts of Oakland County are not in the district so I don’t know if that explains the republicanism of this district. It’s the whitest district in the Detroit metro area but it’s more republican even when looking at whites. My explanation is that it involves a desire to own a big house and the whole “all productive americans own houses, it’s the American dream” mentality. They can’t afford to own a big house in the city or even an inner suburb, so they move far away to where there’s lots of land and real estate is cheap so they can buy their McMansion at the price of a house half the size in the city. Meanwhile people who are wealthier but don’t care about owning houses and rent a nice condo in the city are obviously more liberal and unlike those in the exurbs, probably have less or no children. In any event, this could be a Trott vs Bishop matchup with one of them running in the ninth. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 47.1 Obama, 52.9 McCain
16th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the downriver district and is still pretty heavily white and blue collar. The district shifted to the republicans during the 70s/80s culture wars but has since shifted back towards the dems. My assumption is that Debbie Dingell runs here, who replaced her husband John Dingell, a 59-year veteran. Although Dingell himself replaced his father, it is incorrect to say that this seat has been under the Dingell name for 82 years – only the NW part of the seat has been and it’s been represented by the Dingell’s for 50 years, not 82. Fun fact – Dingell represented a Detroit based district originally and in 1964 vacated the seat which was won by his then-staffer John Conyers. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 59.9 Obama, 40.1 McCain

Georgia

1st District Buddy Carter R-Pooler

Comments: The 1st district takes in the only coastal part of the state and a good deal of the population is in Savannah. Savannah is an old southern port town with 18th century homes – kind of like Charleston. Savannah has a large black population, but the rest of the district is mostly white and republican. Buddy Carter (no relation to the ex president that I know of) is a 58 year old freshman and will probably be a conservative backbencher. This is likely/safe republican territory.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain

2nd District Sanford Bishop D-Albany, Austin Scott R-Tifton

Comments: This is a very poor Deep South district that includes Plains, which is Jimmy Carter’s home town. It seems that rural blacks don’t vote as much as metro area blacks and despite the seat being 37% black, the district is around R+10. If he wasn’t screwed already, Sanford Bishop, (who deserves credit for being pretty moderate for a CBC guy) has to face off against a republican incumbent. Scott should win unless it’s a strong dem year.
2008 Election Results: 43.4 Obama, 56.6 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: This 3rd district looks more like the pre-VRA 3rd district, which is to say a more rural Deep South district than the current 3rd, which contains a lot of the ATL exurbs. The biggest city is Columbus, which is a military town with its proximity to Fort Benning. It stretches almost to Macon and contains the town of Perry, which is where Sam Nunn (senator from 1973-97) is from. I think there are still some democrats in the legislature in this part of the state and I would like to think Nunn could convince all the old blue dogs (if they’re not dead already) to vote for whoever is running here. This should be an open seat unless Scott runs here. I’d say Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 46 Obama, 54 McCain

Metro ATL

4th District (Red) Hank Johnson D-Lithonia, Rob Woodall R-Lawrenceville
Comments: This is the eastern part of the Atlanta metro area but the different parts of the district have differing politics. The Gwinnett county portion (55% of the electorate in 08) went 53% for McCain while the DeKalb county portion (37% of the electorate) went 87% for Obama. The other parts of the district (another 8%) went 73% for McCain. The sheer intensity of the dem vote in DeKalb county makes the district unwinnable for Woodall, who would probably retire or run statewide. But with the district’s PVI reduced to about D+6, it also means Hank Johnson (who always seems like he has dementia) could face a tough primary challenge, like he did in 2014. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 60.3 Obama, 39.7 McCain

5th District (Gold) John Lewis D-Atlanta, David Scott D-Atlanta
Comments: This is the heart of Atlanta which is sort of the Big Apple of the Southeast. The most interesting thing going on here is that the black population in this seat declined from 51 to 43 percent. My guess is that what is going on here is similar to what was going on in Manhattan in the 1950s – lots of old housing projects are being torn down while there is no simultaneous urban dislocation in the white neighborhoods. Normally, an increasing white percentage would be bad for democrats, but I calculated that Obama won the white vote here by about twenty points. Two congressman live here but this is clearly John Lewis’s seat. He’s the only pre-VRA southern democrat left and is 75 so he may retire soon. The district is 42% white and there’s a possibility a white dem could win here like Carter’s grandson.
2008 Election Results: 78.5 Obama, 21.5 McCain

11th District (Chartreuse) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Cobb County district. Cobb County is sort of the Orange County of the south with a military-based economy (there used to be a Lockheed plant and also dobbins AFB, which some people want to turn into a second airport) and political conservatism (wasn’t there some Cobb county boycott in the 96 Olympics?). Interestingly, in the 80s and 90s, Cobb county had a dem congressman (George Darden) when it was far more republican at the presidential level and even then had a republican presence down-ballot. But I guess as the number of straight ticket dems have risen in the district, the number of ticket splitters drops. No incumbent lives here but Loudermilk could run here. I’d give this a likely R rating for now.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

12th District (Cornflower Blue) Tom Price R-Roswell
Comments: This is a varied collection of parts of counties north of Atlanta. 45% of the electorate is in Fulton County. The Fulton county portion used to be its own county before the Great Depression. This part of the district is pretty rich and 56% McCain. The DeKalb portion is pretty much the wealthiest and least dem part of the county (though the most dem part of the seat) at 54% Obama and 18% of the electorate. The Gwinnett County part is another 22% and has a large hispanic population and Obama won that part by 213 votes. The other 15% is parts of Cobb, Cherokee and Forsyth which are like 70% McCain. Overall, this is probably the wealthiest district in the state. The incumbent, Tom Price, is a hard core tea party type but like Westmoreland is sort of an “outsider as insider” type of guy. Price should keep winning reelection since there hasn’t been as much black migration to this part of metro ATL like there has been in Henry or Rockdale counties.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain

6th District Lynn Westmoreland R-Grantville

Comments: This is pretty similar to the district Newt Gingrich represented in the 80s – stretching from the Alabama border to a point near Atlanta. Lynn Westmoreland, the district’s congressman, has his foot in both the tea party and political insider wings of the GOP. This seat isn’t nearly as republican as his old seat as there is dem strength in the Fulton county portion of his district (which is 85% black, 13 percent of the electorate and 89% Obama) and that dem strength is spreading into Douglas county. Still, Westmoreland should keep winning reelection unless the dem trend rapidly accelerates. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 43.5 Obama, 56.5 McCain

7th District Tom Graves R-Ranger Barry Loudermilk R-Cassville

Comments: This is a mostly white small town district in the north Georgia foothills. It stretches from just outside Chattanooga to the fringes of the Atlanta area. The biggest industry in this district is mostly textiles. This is one of the most republican districts in the nation and both of the congressman who live here (Loudermilk and Graves) are tea party types. Graves has represented this area longer and a lot of Loudermilk’s district is in Cobb county, so he might run in the 11th. So it sort of depends I guess. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 26.5 Obama, 73.5 McCain

8th District Rick Allen R-Augusta

Comments: This is a rural deep south district that is very ancestrally dem. The district has a large black population (41%) and Barrow would have won here in 2014. Being the most dem district outside of the Atlanta area, I’d rate this as Tilt D.
2008 Election Results: 50.9 Obama, 41.1 McCain

9th District Doug Collins R-Gainesville

Comments: This part of the state is hundreds of miles from the cotton, peanut and tobacco farmlands of downstate. This is more like Appalachia and has a low (5%) black population. This was historically a hill country district with people living on small farms or in small towns where things like moonshine stills are still a way of life. But a lot of the population growth has been in the southern part of the district near Atlanta. Of the districts I’ve drawn this is the second most republican district in the country. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 23.9 Obama, 76.1 McCain

10th District Jody Hice R-Bethlehem

Comments: The 10th runs from the fringes of the Atlanta area to a point near Augusta, up to I-85 and the South Carolina border. Somewhere in this district is the imaginary fall line between the piedmont and deep south. This is a pretty republican district and would be even more so without the presence of the Clarke County where the University of Georgia is. For three and a half terms this was represented by Paul Broun, the son of a Georgia democratic state senator, who had a propensity for vitriolic remarks. The district’s current congressman, Jody Hice seems to be following in that tradition. Safe R anyways.
2008 Election Results: 39.9 Obama, 60.1 McCain

13th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 13th is an exurban area south of Atlanta and contains Hartsfield airport (one of the busiest in the world). This is the only black majority district in the state (60%). This area has seen rapid demographic changes. In 1990, Clayton, Henry and Rockdale counties were 23, 10 and 8 percent black respectively. By 2010 that number had risen to 65, 36 and 45 percent black. The demographic change might be the reason why Nunn and Carter narrowly won Henry County. The rise in the black population here somewhat explains the loss of the black population in the fifth district. No congressman lives here but this is clearly David Scott’s district. Scott is one of the few urban/suburban congressmen on the house agriculture committee (where he is the no 2 dem) but his main assignment is on the banking committee which is of importance to his foreclosure-heavy district. He’ll probably retire sometime before 2022. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 70.9 Obama, 29.1 McCain

Virginia

1st District Bobby Scott D-Newport News

Comments: The first district takes in the Hampton-Newport News area which is sort of a peninsula and the northern parts of Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Portsmouth. It also takes in the politically negligible Delmarva Peninsula. The first (along with the second) have to be some of the most military-heavy congressional districts in the country. The reason the first votes dem is because of its 35% black population. The incumbent here is Bobby Scott who is now ranking member on the House Ed&Labor committee, which historically has had few southern democrats on it. The district is nowhere near as safe as what he’s represented but he did run for a seat similar to this in 1986 (though he did lose). I’d rate this Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 61.3 Obama, 38.7 McCain

2nd District Scott Rigell R-Virginia Beach

Comments: This is another military-heavy district, anchored by Virginia Beach and Chesapeake counties. The black population here is seven percentage points less black than the first which is probably why it’s seven percentage points less dem than the first. The incumbent here is Scott Rigell who is a standard Virginia republican. This district is a little more dem than what he’s represented, so I’d rate this only Tilt R.
2008 Election Results: 54.4 Obama, 45.6 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The third is the Richmond district. This would have been a republican district not all that long ago – the city of Richmond itself has voted dem for awhile but Henrico and Chesterfield used to be super republican (and Chesterfield still votes republican). My guess is that Richmond used to be like Memphis where you have a very racially divided metro area with a dem city proper and the surrounding areas being pretty reactionary with issues like busing being a major fear. Henrico has shifted dem in large part due to the increasing black population and non-native white population and the more conservative people moving to Hanover County. No incumbent lives here but it should be close to a safe dem district.
2008 Election Results: 61.1 Obama, 38.9 McCain

4th District Randy Forbes R-Chesapeake

Comments: The fourth district is pretty similar to neighboring NC-2 (see in this diary here: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2015/11/28/rethinking-redistricting-part-ii-ca-fl-nc-ak/). It is an old tobacco district with a large historic black population (the black % in both districts are around 35%). Randy Forbes is the incumbent here who always seems like he could be defeated but it never seems to pan out. This is an ancestrally dem district though and the dems have a good shot at picking it up if he retires. Likely R with Forbes, tossup otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 51.3 Obama, 48.7 McCain

5th District Robert Hurt R-Chatham Bob Goodlatte R-Roanoke

Comments: An imaginary line cuts through this district between the all-white piedmont area where textiles are the name of the game to the tobacco heavy lowland with its large black population. The district, unlike a lot of Virginia, is almost entirely of southern heritage. Points of interest here is Appomattox (where the civil war ended), the medium sized city of Roanoke and the city of Lynchburg which is otherwise like Roanoke but is known for being the home of Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University. Both Hurt and Goodlatte live here but this is definitely Hurt’s seat. This is the most republican district he’s represented, so Hurt should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 43.7 Obama, 56.3 McCain

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is west central Virginia with the main thing here being the Shenandoah Valley which is known for scenery and what not. The biggest city here is Charlottesville, which is the home of the University of Virginia, which, like many college towns, is dem. The presence of the University is what prevents the district from voting like VA-9. No incumbent lives here but I would think Bob Goodlatte would run here. Goodlatte, like many Virginia pols, are from somewhere else – he is from Springfield, Massachusetts. He is chair of the house judiciary committee and should be around for a few more terms. It should be close to safe R.
Comments: 46.4 Obama, 53.6 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: I would call this the “Rural NOVA” district. But I wouldn’t call it a southern district either. I’d say it’s politics are more like Central Pennsylvania. The DC area is just starting to encroach into this area and the seventh and the tenth are the two fastest growing districts in the state. No Incumbent lives here but any decent republican here should be reasonably safe.
2008 Election Results: 46.6 Obama, 53.4 McCain

8th District Don Beyer D-Alexandria Barbara Comstock R-McLean Gerry Connolly D-Mantua

Comments: The eighth is the inner beltway district and is the oldest (in terms of the age of the homes), most densely populated and most dem district in northern Virginia. It’s also been voting dem the longest out of any part of NOVA – Arlington and Alexandria have not voted republican for president since 1972. The district’s congressman is Don Beyer, the onetime Lt Governor of the state. He’s already 65, so he won’t accumulate much seniority, but it’s a safe district. Comstock and Connolly also live here, but they probably run in the nearby tenth and eleventh districts.
2008 election Results: 69 Obama, 31 McCain
9th District Morgan Griffith R-Salem

Comments: The ninth is the poorest and most Appalachian part of Virginia. It’s politics also seem to be kind of a “reverse bellwether” of the state of Virginia meaning that if the state votes one way, it votes the other. This part of the state was usually the most republican part of the state before WWII (like Eastern Tennessee) and was known as the fighting ninth. But it was never as republican as the Richmond suburbs in part because of coal, so both parties had a decent presence here. Although only five percent of the population works in coal – it still has a cultural presence and being anti-coal or being perceived as anti-coal is sort of a proxy to voters here. Rick Boucher held the seat for 28 years and was caught napping in 2010. But being the most republican seat in the state (at least in presidential elections), Griffith should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 41 Obama, 59 McCain

10th District No Incumbent

Comments: The tenth is the western DC district. The biggest landmark here is probably Dulles airport, which handles all the long distance flights out of the area. It’s also probably the first or second wealthiest district in the country. I would assume Comstock would run here. Comstock is a DC-insider type hack but that’s obviously not a disqualifier here since many people here work in the district. She won by 15-16 points in 2014 but in a more neutral year and in a more dem district, she would have a fight on her hands. Tossup with Comstock, Likely D otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 58.5 Obama, 41.5 McCain

11th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the southern DC suburbs. This is probably the least wealthy part of the NOVA and has the largest black and Hispanic population of any of the three DC-area districts (they combine for about 35%). It also has the most republican white vote of the three DC-area districts and backlash politics have manifested themselves here – if I recall PW County had an anti-illegal immigrant ordinance a number of years ago. Nonetheless it should go to a democrat simply because of the nonwhite numbers here. No incumbent lives here but Connolly likely runs here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 60.1 Obama, 39.9 McCain

12th District Rob Wittman R-Montross, Dave Brat R-Ashland

Comments: The twelfth is tucked away on the Potomac between the Hampton Roads, Richmond and DC area. This was probably the first part of the country to be settled as Jamestown and Williamsburg are both in the district. Much of the population lives in the exurban areas of all three metro areas, all of which are pretty republican. Both Wittman and Brat lives here. As I’m writing this, Wittman has announced he may run for governor in 2017. Normally, I would think Brat would run in the nearby seventh, but its possible that Wittman defers to Brat. Either way, this is a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

Indiana

1st District Pete Visclosky D-Merrillville

Comments: This is the northwest corner of the state and is the only part of the state that took in any number of “great wave” immigrants – many of them polish. It’s also the only true safe dem district in Indiana. The incumbent is Pete Visclosky who has been dean of the Indiana delegation since Dan Burton retired. He is an old-school pork barrel type democrat and is No 2 on the house appropriations committee. He’s “only” 66, so he may have the opportunity to become chair of the committee. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 63.8 Obama, 36.2 McCain

2nd District Jackie Walorski R-Jamestown

Comments: The second is a mashup of sorts between the 1990s 3rd and 5th districts. The South Bend area keeps it in the bounds of competitiveness. The rest of the district is pretty conservative like most of rural Indiana. The incumbent is Jackie Walorski, who many thought was a weak incumbent – she won the district by an unimpressive margin in 2012 and was thought to be a Marilyn Musgrave type. But her ACU ratings haven’t been as high as I would expect and she got close to 60% in 2014. So she should be favored going forward unless it’s a bad year for republicans.
2008 Election Results: 49.9 Obama, 50.1 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The third is northeastern Indiana. I don’t know why this district is as republican as it is but even Joe Donnelly lost the district by fifteen or so points. Indiana is different from the rest of the Midwest in that the north=democrat south=republican divide is more nuanced. This would have been Marlin Stutzman’s district but he’s running for the senate. I guess the best democrats can hope for is a Dan Coats type republican (Coats himself represented the seat in the 80s) – a conservative, but non tea-party republican. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.3 Obama, 55.7 McCain

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: The fourth is west-central Indiana, pretty similar to the old John Meyers district. It’s mostly a small town district, but there are two small cities in the seat – Lafayette and Terre Haute. Lafayette is home to Purdue University which is basically the “A&M School” of Indiana. It’s also pretty republican for a college town and Tippecanoe County voted for Romney. Terre Haute is an old industrial type of place and is a presidential bellwether county – if I remember right it’s voted for the winner in fourteen straight elections. No incumbent wins here but I would think Rokita runs here. He’s won statewide office before and will probably not have too much trouble here unless it’s a really bad republican year. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 48.5 Obama, 51.5 McCain

5th District Todd Rokita R-Clermont

Comments: You would think that with the non-Marion County areas being only 37% of the district that it would have gone heavily for Obama, right? Wrong. The Marion County portion is the less dem part of the county as it only went 57% for Obama. As a result, you have a district that went for Obama by less than a percentage point. The district looks a lot like the 1970s sixth district. Rokita does live here but I think he runs in the fourth. So instead, I think Susan Brooks runs here. I think she’d be ok here most years.
2008 Election Results: 50.4 Obama, 49.6 McCain

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: East Central Indiana is pretty republican and if not for the presence of the industrial cities of Marion, Anderson, Kokomo and Muncie (although Muncie is more of a college town), it might vote more like neighboring OH-4. Nonetheless, votes are not counted by geographical land and those areas are a good percentage of the district. No incumbent lives here but I would think Luke Messer would run here. It’s maybe a little less republican than his current seat but he shouldn’t have too much trouble.
2008 Election Results: 47.4 Obama, 52.6 McCain

7th District Susan Brooks D-Indianapolis, Andre Carson D-Indianapolis

Comments: This is a tale of two areas. 60% of the district is in Marion County. The Marion County portion is the more dem part of the county (71% Obama) and is also 39% black. The rest of the district, mainly in Hamilton County, went 60-40 McCain in 2008. Hamilton County is one of the faster growing counties in the Midwest and should be a larger % of the district in future elections. That could be detrimental to Andre Carson (I’m assuming Brooks runs in the fifth) since Hamilton County is republican, but it also assumes it keeps voting as republican as it always has. It could be that the migration to the county will invariably lower the republican numbers – after all it wasn’t all that long ago when republicans could count on getting 75% of the vote there, which doesn’t happen that often anymore. Still, it could be a problem for Carson, especially since he’s never been a strong incumbent. I’m not sure who the republicans run here – maybe Carmel mayor Jim Brainerd. I’d rate this Lean D but it could easily flip to tossup.
2008 Election Results: 58 Obama, 42 McCain

8th District Larry Buschon R-Newburgh

Comments: The eighth is southwest Indiana. Out of any rural Indiana districts this is the one the dems have there best shot at because it has a large population of southern ancestry, a decent labor presence, and most of the college town of Bloomington. In fact, the eighth has been known for decades as the “bloody eighth”. Larry Buschon is a pretty noncontroversial congressman and should keep winning reelection. But in this seat, he might have a race on his hands in a bad gop year. Lean-to-Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.7 Obama, 50.3 McCain

9th District Luke Messer R-Shelbyville

Comments: The ninth is southeast Indiana and in 2008 at least was the most pro-McCain district in the state. What’s even more interesting is that this is pretty similar to the district Baron Hill represented in his first two terms which makes me wonder why he kept having tough races when his district was made safer in 2002. Even more interesting is that Lee Hamilton represented this seat for another thirty odd years before that, surviving even 1994. Luke Messer lives here, but I think he runs in the sixth. It’s an open seat and Shelli Yoder could theoretically get 45-46%, but I don’t see this district going dem and if it does, for not more than a term. Likely-to Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain

For those that missed parts I, II and III – the link can be found below (and the same rules apply). The states I’ll be doing now is the smallest of the large states – states that (except for Nebraska) have eight, nine or ten districts. Also, I’m apportioning by CVAP (or rather a proxy for CVAP) rather than population.

Rethinking Redistricting Part I: The Small States

Rethinking Redistricting Part II: CA-FL-NC-AK

Rethinking Redistricting Part III – OH, IL, MI, GA, VA, IN

Arizona

1st District David Schweikert R-Fountain Hills

Comments: This is similar to the sixth district of the 90s – the rural northeastern part of the state and the far flung NE part of the Phoenix metro. The district is 20% Native American which is the highest in the country. This would have been Kirkpatrick’s district, but she’s running for the senate. She probably couldn’t win this seat anyways. Schweikert also lives here, but I think he runs in the fifth. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 42.8 Obama, 57.2 McCain
112th congress percentages – 45% Gosar, 30% Flake, 16% Schweikert, 6% Quayle, 3% Franks

2nd District Trent Franks R-Glendale

Comments: The second district is the west side of the Phoenix area. The area is a mix between old people (Sun City, Sun City West) and fast growing exurbs (the district’s population increased 52% during the 2000s). The northern part of the district is probably the wealthiest part of the Valley after north Scottsdale. There’s probably also a lot of military types here with Luke AFB so overall you have a pretty republican district. The only dem areas in the district are in the eastern fringes where there is a large Hispanic population. Trent Franks is the congressman here and probably is on the list of top ten most conservative member of congress. While this is the least republican district he’s represented, he should keep winning reelection.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 84% Franks, 9% Grijalva, 4% Quayle, 3% Pastor

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The third is the wealthiest district in the state. It contains a lot of fashionable areas like Paradise Valley and north Scottsdale. In the sunbelt states, the city proper’s tend to have a higher population than you would expect and part of that is because they tend to annex areas that would be suburbs in rust-belt cities. An interesting way to look at what the old city proper would look like is to look at the school district map – and almost none of the Phoenix portion of the seat is zoned to Phoenix public schools. No incumbent lives here, but this would be Schweikert’s district. Schweikert is as conservative as Trent Franks but is a different type of conservative. Franks is like a Jerry Falwell type while Schweikert is something of a contrarian Ron Paul type. He’s made some enemies with the GOP leadership, but he should be pretty safe here.
2008 Election Results: 43.5 Obama, 56.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 73% Quayle, 21% Schweikert, 6% Franks
4th District Paul Gosar R-Prescott

Comments: Of all the Arizona districts, this one is the only one that could truly be called an “outstate” district as a majority of the population is not in the Phoenix or Tucson metros. The population is mostly in small cities like Yuma, Lake Havasu, Kingman, Prescott and some of Flagstaff. The population nonetheless is still fast growing and the district’s population increased by 44% during the 2000s, making it the ninth fastest growing district in the country. Some of that may have to do with the fact that the parts of the district that is in the Phoenix metro area is very fast growing (the area around Buckeye). The incumbent here is Paul Gosar and he should have no problems here with this being the most republican district in the state. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 37.2 Obama, 62.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 36% Gosar, 35% Franks, 17% Grijalva, 12% Quayle

5th District Ruben Gallego D-Phoenix, Kristin Sinema D-Phoenix

Comments: This is the oldest part of the Phoenix area and the most dem. It also takes in the older (and more dem) areas of Scottsdale, the college town of Tempe (where ASU is), the small heavily-Hispanic city of Guadalupe, and Awatukee (the most republican part of the seat). Two incumbents live here – Kristin Sinema and Ruben Gallego (Guy-ay-go). Both have pretty similar backgrounds – both in there mid-to-late 30s, both rookies in congress and both have been in the legislature before. The district is 47% Hispanic which would theoretically help Sinema but Gallego has never really run as the “Hispanic candidate” and is the whitest looking Hispanic I’ve ever seen. Likely-to-safe D.
2008 Election Results: 58.9 Obama, 41.1 McCain
112th congress percentages: 48% Schweikert, 45% Pastor, 7% Quayle

6th District Matt Salmon R-Mesa

Comments: This is the East Valley district. The biggest city here is Mesa which has a large Mormon population. Also included is Chandler which is more built out and probably the least republican part of the district. The southeast corner (Gilbert, Higley, Queen Creek) is the fastest growing part of the district. Overall this is the most republican of the Valley districts. Matt Salmon is the incumbent here. Initially elected in 1994, he honored his three term pledge and two years after leaving office, ran for governor and lost to Napolitano. After his successor, Jeff Flake, ran for the senate in 2012, he ran for his old seat. The 90s 1st district, If I remember, took in Tempe and even parts of Phoenix. This seat doesn’t have any of those areas, so he should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 40.8 Obama, 59.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 83% Flake, 17% Schweikert

7th District Raul Grijalva D-Tucson

Comments: The 7th district takes in a lot of varied areas. The first is the Pima County portion, which is 65% of the electorate. The Pima county portion is a lot less dem than I thought – as it went for Obama by only four points. The downtown Tucson area and the Indian reservations in the western part of the county is balanced out by the republican areas in Green Valley, Oro Valley and Marana. The rest of the district is mostly in Pinal County, which is an exurban area between Tucson and Phoenix. The county is only one of two counties nationwide that doubled between 2000 and 2010. This is probably what made the seventh district tied with Joe Heck’s district as the second fastest growing seat in the country – a 55% increase from 2000-2010. The incumbent here is Raul Grijalva, who is a Mecha/NCLR type. He’s too liberal for the district so he probably retires. Likely-to-Safe R with Grijalva, Tossup-to-lean R without him.
2008 Election Results: 49 Obama, 51 McCain
112th congress percentages: 40% Barber, 33% Grijalva, 11% Flake, 11% Gosar, 5% Franks

8th District Martha McSally R-Tucson

Comments: This seat is slightly more dem than the seventh because a higher portion of the seat is in Pima County (72%) and the Pima County portion is more dem (Obama won the Pima County portion by eight points). As a result, you have a district that narrowly went for Obama. McSally barely won in 2014 (albeit against an incumbent) and the dems would definitely throw all they have at her. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 50.8 Obama, 49.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 80% Barber, 13% Grijalva, 7% Gosar

Colorado

1st District Diana DeGette D-Denver

Comments: The 1st is the Denver district. Denver is sort of a rocky mountain Seattle from what I know and lots of foody and music stuff to do. Knowing nothing else about this district, it would still be pretty easy to guess correctly what party this district votes. Diana DeGette, the district’s congresswoman is a standard liberal dem but from what I know is a Hoyer ally. She also has a good chance to eventually chair the Energy and Commerce committee since she is “only” 58. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 76.3 Obama, 23.7 McCain
112th congress percentages: 86% DeGette, 14% Perlmutter

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The second district is the northern part of the Denver metro area. Of all the Denver suburban counties, Adams has never been a republican stronghold. Why this is I don’t know. Also included is the northeastern part of Jefferson County (Westminster, Arvada) and SE Boulder County (Louisville and Lafayette) which is more Denver exurbs than part of Boulder. No incumbent lives here but this is mostly Polis’ district so he might run here. Polis has a Silicon Valley background from what I know, having been a millionaire by 25. He’s one of the few congressmen on the Rules committee that sits on another committee (Ed and Labor). Give the age he was when first elected, he has a very good chance of chairing either committee someday. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 59.4 Obama, 40.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 74% Polis, 24% Perlmutter, 2% Gardner

3rd District Scott Tipton R-Cortez

Comments: The third district is the western slope of Colorado. The district is pretty varied from your typical gun-loving western small towns to the trustafarian-heavy ski towns. Because the former is more numerous than the latter, the district will usually go republican. With that said, the seat is not that inelastic and did go to a democrat in 2004 when it was an open seat (and with Bush carrying it by a decent amount). I’d rate this Likely R with Tipton and Lean R in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 48.4 Obama, 51.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 83% Tipton, 15% Polis, 2% Lamborn

4th District Ken Buck R-Greeley

Comments: The fourth district is sort of its own metro area on the Front Range. The cities here are Fort Collins and Loveland in Larimer County, Longmont in Boulder County (which is only light blue) and Greeley in Weld County. It’s also the most bellwether-y district in the state. Buck lives here and his home base is in Weld County (where he was the DA) but its still possible he runs in the safer eighth. In an open seat, its possible Betsy Markey would run here. Lean R with Buck, Tossup in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 53.5 Obama, 46.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 95% Gardner, 5% Polis

5th District Doug Lamborn R-Colorado Springs

Comments: I’ve often heard that the politics of Colorado mimics the politics of California. In a way that’s true and the state probably does have a lot of people originally from California. If Denver is West LA and Greeley is Bakersfield then the fifth district is as if you were able to take Yorba Linda, Temecula, and what have you and replicate it until you were able to create a whole district out of it. Like southern California, this is a huge military district as the USAF is here. There’s also, like southern California, a megachurch presence here as James Dobbins (who I think is from Pomona) has his organization headquartered here. As a whole, you have a pretty republican district although it’s only R+6 or so if you look just at whites (i.e. McCain got 54-55% of the white vote in 08 and McCain got about 60-61% here). The incumbent here is Doug Lamborn who is a hardcore tea party type. Nonetheless, he has a safe seat.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 77% Lamborn, 23% Coffman

6th District Mike Coffman R-Aurora

Comments: This is the Arapahoe County district. It seems like Parker Road is sort of a dividing line in the district. East of it, it is pretty dem while to the west of it, it usually goes republican. This is pretty similar to the current sixth district and Mike Coffman would run here. Coffman is not a particularly strong incumbent and could possibly lose one of these days. I’d rate this Tossup or Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 52.6 Obama, 47.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 80% Coffman, 14% Perlmutter, 6% DeGette

7th District Jared Polis D-Boulder, Ed Perlmutter R-Golden

Comments: Three quarters of the seat is in the western Denver suburbs (Jefferson County), which is a post-WWII suburban area that boomed with the aerospace and electronics industry. The county is pretty swingy and the Jefferson County portion is only D+1. The remaining quarter of the seat is 81% Obama and is mostly lefty potheads in Boulder and rich celebrities in Nederland (isn’t there a well known recording studio there?). Both Polis and Perlmutter live her and Perlmutter probably runs here since the biggest part of his seat is here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 61.6 Obama, 38.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 41% Perlmutter, 28% Polis, 26% Coffman, 5% DeGette

8th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is another heterogeneous district. The first constituency here is the high plains and that part of the state is all flat, mostly treeless, arid and full of ranchers. This area is super republican. Then you have the exurban fringes of Colorado Springs and Denver (including Denver’s airport). Lastly are the Spanish speaking counties in the southwest part of the seat and the only dem part of the district. The seat is the second most republican district in the state and no incumbent lives here. I’m not sure if Buck runs here or not but it should be safe R.
2008 Election Results: 43.5 Obama, 56.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 34% Tipton, 25% Lamborn, 17% Coffman, 15% Gardner, 6% Perlmutter, 3% DeGette

Maryland

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the eastern shore of Maryland which is a pretty bucolic area and where crab fishing is a big part of the local economy. There is still some residual southern culture here. No incumbent lives here but it should go to the current 1st district guy – Andy Harris, as much of his district is here. Although he lost the slightly more-red 1st district in 2008, he should be safe for the time being.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 88% Harris, 9% Ruppersberger, 3% Bartlett

2nd District Dutch Ruppersberger D-Cockeysville Andy Harris R-Cockeysville John Sarbanes D-Towson

Comments: Baltimore for whatever reason has the same type of polarization going on that you see in places like Milwaukee. This is basically the northern suburbs/exurbs of Baltimore, stretching out to the Pennsylvania border. Harris and Sarbanes live here, but would run elsewhere. This would be Ruppersberger’s seat but he’s screwed here and might just retire so even if three incumbents live here, it might be an open seat. It’s possible that Ehrlich runs here (or maybe even Shamlet). Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.8 Obama, 55.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 38% Ruppersberger, 28% Bartlett, 17% Sarbanes, 17% Harris

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The third is the Anne Arundel district. . It also includes Baltimore’s airport and the state capital in Annapolis, home of the US Naval Academy. No incumbent lives here and this is probably the most marginal district in the state. There’s a chance Sarbanes runs here to bite the bullet – Lean D with him, Tossup otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 51.1 Obama, 48.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 51% Sarbanes, 21% Harris, 18% Ruppersberger, 5% Hoyer, 5% Cummings

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: The fourth is the Prince George’s county district. Prince George or PG for short has never had the glitzy reputation of a Bethesda or Falls Church. It is however the site of the University of Maryland flagship campus (albeit the university predates the massive postwar suburbanization). It was first populated by middle and working class people fleeing Washington DC after the Brown decision and it always had sort of a populist and even quasi-southern streak to it (the county gave George Wallace 18% of the vote in 1968). If Washington DC is Detroit, then Montgomery is Oakland County and Prince George’s is Macomb County. The next big development in the area was the explosion of the black population into the county beginning in the 1970s and the county became majority black in the 90s. No incumbent lives here, but there is probably going to be a heavily-contested primary in an open and safe seat like this one.
2008 Election Results: 88 Obama, 12 McCain
112th congress percentages: 56% Edwards, 37% Hoyer, 7% Van Hollen

5th District Steny Hoyer D-Mechanicsville

Comments: The fifth is another case of two districts. On one hand is the Prince George’s County portion which is 41% of the district. The PG portion is 76% black and gave Obama 91 percent of the vote. The rest of the district is only 24% black and went for Obama by only five points. The other 59% of the seat is more like the eastern shore – mostly rural, big on crab fishing and with a semi-southern identity. The grand old man of Maryland politics is Steny Hoyer who since 2005 has been the No 2 house democrat, but he’s already 76 and is probably nearing retirement. Safe D either way though.
2008 Election Results: 68.6 Obama, 31.4 McCain

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: One of the most bizarre shaped states in the U.S. is Maryland and as a result, you’re going to have long and narrow districts like these. The Appalachians go through the district and is pretty similar to the T in Pennsylvania. The reason why Obama only lost the seat by 82 votes is the fact that 24% of the district is in Montgomery County. The Montgomery County portion is a little more rural and less blue than the rest of the county, but it still went for Obama by a 2-1 margin. No incumbent lives here and Delaney would run probably here but I would think with Van Hollen running for the senate, he would run in CVH’s seat. I’d rate this lean R in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 50 Obama, 50 McCain
112th congress percentages: 79% Bartlett, 12% Van Hollen, 9% Edwards

7th District Elijah Cummings D-Baltimore

Comments: The seventh is more or less the entire city of Baltimore and a small part of Baltimore County. You used to be able to fit two maybe three districts entirely within the city of Baltimore and now the city itself is less than a full district. Before World War II, the city would sometimes cast something like forty percent of the state’s votes. The district’s congressman is Elijah Cummings, who has been in the house for almost twenty years. He doesn’t sit on the most prestigious committees (Public Works and Government Operations) but he could eventually chair either committee and could possibly be in congressional leadership, being one of the shrewder members of the CBC. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 80.5 Obama, 19.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 43% Cumming, 29% Sarbanes, 29% Ruppersberger

8th District John Delaney D-Potomac

Comments: The eighth is the Montgomery County district. Being so close to Washington, a lot of bigwigs live here and probably has the highest median home price of any congressional district outside of NY or CA. It’s also the only real white liberal district in the state. This would have been Chris Van Hollen’s district but with him running for the senate and with Delaney looking at a more hostile district, Delaney might run here. Either way, safe D.
2008 Election Results: 74.1 Obama, 25.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 92% Van Hollen, 8% Edwards

9th District No Incumbent

Comments: The ninth, along with the third, both act as kind of buffer districts between the Baltimore and Washington metro areas. The Baltimore County portion (and a small part of the city itself) is the most dem part of the district (like 80ish percent Obama) and is majority black. I’m not sure about Howard County except that it is where Columbia is which was supposed to be kind of an experimental type of city in the 60s. In any event, this is a safe district and while 54% of the seat is Cummings’ old seat, I think he runs in the Baltimore seat. It’ll probably be an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 66.5 Obama, 33.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 54% Cummings, 14% Sarbanes, 12% Edwards, 10% Ruppersberger, 10% Bartlett

Massachusetts

1st District Richard Neal D-Springfield

Comments: There are two parts to the district really – roughly half the district is in Hampden County (Springfield). Obama got about 65% in this part of the district and this is old-fashioned machine democrat country. Richard Neal is a typical democrat for Springfield. The other half is the non-Hampden County area (where Obama got 75%) and is pretty moonbat heavy. The incumbent, as I alluded to, is Richard Neal who is on his fourteenth term. Given that he’s “only” 66, he could chair Ways and Means eventually as the four democrats ahead of him on the committee are all at least nine years older and two of them (McDermott and Rangel) are retiring. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 70 Obama, 30 McCain
112th congress Percentages: 56% Olver, 44% Neal

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The second is an almost entirely rural portion of west-central Massachusetts. Being an open seat, the MA-GOP should try to go after it with all they’ve got. Baker probably won the district by a decent margin. I’d put this as lean D in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 57.2 Obama, 42.8 McCain
112th congress Percentages: 43% Olver, 30% Neal, 14% McGovern, 13% Tsongas

3rd District Jim McGovern D-Worcester

Comments: This is the old industrial city of Worcester plus some of the Boston exurbs. I’ve never much liked McGovern and have felt that he is the wrong type of democrat for the district (Donohue and Early were more machine type dems if I remember) but he unfortunately should be close to safe here.
2008 Election Results: 60.1 Obama, 39.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 51% McGovern, 25% Neal, 15% Markey, 6% Tsongas, 3% Frank

4th District No Incumbent

Comments: The fourth is pretty similar to the district that once elected Joseph Martin, who was the minority leader (and speaker for two terms) during the 40s and 50s. Most of the district is exurban areas between Boston and Providence. The most dem part of the district is in the industrial city of Fall River. No incumbent lives here but Joe Kennedy might run here. Being only 35 and on the Energy and Commerce committee, he certainly has lifer potential, although he may run statewide at some point. This is not that dem of a district though so he might have to work harder campaigning. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 57.2 Obama, 42.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 35% Lynch, 33% Frank, 32% McGovern
5th District Niki Tsongas D-Lowell

Comments: Middlesex County has to be one of the biggest counties in the United States, stretching from a point near Boston all the way to the New Hampshire border. This district doesn’t have a lot in common with Boston and is sort of its own identity. It’s part of the Merrimack Valley which is mostly old mill towns like Lawrence, Lowell, Nashua etc. The incumbent here is Niki Tsongas whose husband Paul represented this seat in the 1970s. She had a close call in a 2007 special election but aside from 2010 when she won by twelve points, has won convincingly. She is, however, nearing seventy, so she may retire in a cycle or two. Likely-to-Safe D with Tsongas, Tilt-to-Lean D in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 59.4 Obama, 40.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 66% Tsongas, 18% Tierney, 16% Markey

6th District Seth Moulton D-Salem

Comments: The sixth is the Essex County district. From what I know, it’s a sort of insular, fisherman-heavy area full of towns that have existed since colonial times. One of the bigger cities here is Salem, which of course was where suspected witches were burned at the stake in 1692. It’s also the hometown of Congressman Seth Moulton. Being only 37, he definitely has lifer potential though like Kennedy he may run statewide. I’d rate this Safe D for now.
2008 Election Results: 59.4 Obama, 40.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 88% Tierney, 10% Tsongas, 2% Markey

7th District Joseph Kennedy D-Brookline

Comments: The seventh is a fairly wealthy district and the reason its so dem is because there are a lot of Jews and academics (and Jewish academics). Kennedy lives here but there’s a good chance he would run in the fourth and that Katherine Clark would run here. Either way, safe D.
2008 Election Results: 73.5 Obama, 26.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 31% Markey, 29% Frank, 21% Lynch, 17% Capuano, 2% Tsongas

8th District Mike Capuano D-Somerville, Katherine Clark D-Melrose, Stephen Lynch D-Boston

Comments: The eighth is the postcard Boston district more or less. The district is obviously safely dem and the battle lines here are between the “town and gown” democrats (i.e. Tip O’Neill and John McCormack) and the New Left academia types as well as the bohemian types (something like 83% of the population is over 18). Three incumbents live here but I would think Capuano would be the most likely to run here. Capuano is sort of a mix of both camps of the democrats here as he’s half-Italian and half-Irish and has a thick Boston-area accent, but he’s also a favorite of the moveon crowd. Either way, this is a safe dem district.
2008 Election Results: 75.1 Obama, 24.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 52% Capuano, 35% Markey, 10% Lynch, 2% Tierney, 1% Frank
9th District No Incumbent

Comments: Most of the district is in eastern Norfolk and northern Plymouth counties. From what I know about the Boston area, this is mostly middle class suburbs and not the super-glitzy areas found in the seventh district. There also seems to be sort of a class-inversion in the sense that the super wealthy areas in the 7th are more dem leaning than there middle class brethren in the ninth. The one area that stands out from the rest of the district is the small part of Boston it takes in which is 54% black and despite being only an eighth of the district, increases the district’s PVI by four points. No incumbent lives here but this would probably be Stephen Lynch’s district. Lynch is probably the closest thing (along with Dick Neal) to an old-fashioned Massachusetts democrat. He tried running for the senate in 2013 but lost in the primary in a landslide. He should be pretty safe here and I could see him be in the house for another decade or so.
2008 Election Results: 60.5 Obama, 39.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 54% Keating, 45% Lynch, 1% Frank

10th District William Keating D-Bourne

Comments: Most of the district I think is pretty similar to my description of the sixth district. There’s also a large Portuguese population in this part of Massachusetts. The only area of the seat that kind of sticks out is the Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket areas which is sort of like the Sun Valleys and Tellurides of the world in that there are a lot of rich lefty outsiders. Bill Keating is the incumbent here and is sort of a backbencher and will probably not rise too much in seniority given his age when first elected. He hasn’t exceeded sixty percent so far so I’d rate this Lean-to-Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 59.6 Obama, 40.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 63% Keating, 37% Frank

Minnesota

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: This is southeastern Minnesota. This is a fairly rural district with some small cities such as Rochester, Albert Lea and Owatonna. No incumbent lives here but Tim Walz would run here. He has the most republican-sounding background (football coach, military experience) of any democrat in congress so it gives him the ability to be seen as “one of us” which probably helps him win reelection. Nonetheless, he has gotten above sixty percent only once so he isn’t totally out of the woods. I’d rate this likely D for now.
2008 Election Results: 52.6 Obama, 47.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 73% Walz, 27% Kline

2nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The second is the southern twin cities suburbs. Much of the population is in Dakota County but it does take in some of Washington (Cottage Grove) and Hennepin (Mall of America area, MSP airport) counties. This would have been John Kline’s district but he is retiring. I can’t remember who the Ds and Rs are running here but it should be a tossup for now.
2008 Election Results: 54.6 Obama, 45.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 71% Kline, 11% McCollum, 10% Paulsen, 8% Ellison

3rd District Erik Paulsen R-Eden Prairie

Comments: This is the southwestern suburbs of Minneapolis running along US 169 and US 212. Two thirds of the district is in Hennepin County. The Hennepin portion went for Obama by eleven points while the remaining third (Carver and Scott) went for McCain by an equal amount and knocks the PVI down some. The district is the highest turnout in the nation (58% of the 2010 population here voted in 2008). The incumbent is Erik Paulsen who is probably the most conservative person to represent this area but he’s never won by less than eight points. I’d rate this Safe R for now.
2008 Election Results: 51.8 Obama, 48.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 56% Paulsen, 33% Kline, 11% Ellison

4th District Betty McCollum D-St Paul

Comments: The fourth district stretches from St Paul to the Wisconsin border. Most of the population lives in Ramsey County (St Paul). Of the twin cities, St Paul is definitely the less glamorous of the two and is the older of the two cities (there’s a reason it was chosen as the state capitol). It’s also been voting for democrats longer than Minneapolis (Ramsey County hasn’t voted republican for president since 1924). The incumbent is Betty McCollum who has a plenty moonbat voting record but at least is not a vocal moonbat. She should be safe here.
2008 Election Results: 62.6 Obama, 37.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 76% McCollum, 23% Bachmann, 1% Kline
5th District Keith Ellison D-Minneapolis

Comments: This is almost all of Minneapolis, some of St Paul and some close-in suburbs. As far as the Midwest goes, this is probably the most moonbat-heavy district there is. Keith Ellison, the congressman is a moonbat and an egregious one at that (at least Sabo, while very liberal, was tolerable). Nonetheless, he’s safe and might be in office for awhile (especially since I doubt he runs statewide).
2008 Election Results: 79.5 Obama, 20.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 78% Ellison, 19% McCollum, 3% Paulsen

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: The tenth is mostly twin city exurbs. The culture here is different than the closer-in suburbs like the sixth and third districts. What I’ve read about this area is that the area does have some high income places but are people who didn’t go to college which is a pretty hardcore republican demo. Guns are also probably a bigger deal here than in areas closer to the twin cities. Further north are rural republican areas of the old eighth. No incumbent lives here but I would think Tom Emmer would run here. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 43.4 Obama, 56.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 71% Bachmann, 29% Cravaack

7th District Collin Peterson D-Detroit Lakes

Comments: This is another rural Minnesota district with the occasional small city such as St Cloud or Moorhead. The district’s congressman, Collin Peterson, is a Henry “Scoop” Jackson type of democrat and is one of the few dems who can consistently hold down an R+ seat. He’s also ranking member of the Agriculture committee and chaired it from 2007-2010. Peterson is 71 and may retire eventually though it’s possible he waits until a favorable dem year before he retires. Likely D with Peterson.
2008 Election Results: 47 Obama, 53 McCain
112th congress percentages: 51% Peterson, 28% Bachmann, 21% Cravaack

8th District Rick Nolan D-Crosby

Comments: The eighth spans the entire Canadian border, stretching from the northwoods of Wisconsin to the red river. The biggest constituency here is the Iron Range which contains Duluth on the western shores of Lake Superior and the mining towns of Hibbing and Chisholm. Further west are a few other small cities like Crookston, Bemidji and Thief River Falls. Overall, this is a vintage labor-dem district and the seat hasn’t voted republican for president since 1928. Even in 2010, Oberstar likely would have held on. Rick Nolan, the district’s incumbent, returned to office in 2012 after a 32-year hiatus and is seen largely as a placeholder candidate until the dems can find someone else. In this situation there’s a good chance he would retire in a safer seat. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain
112th congress percentages: 77% Cravaack, 23% Peterson

9th District Tim Walz D-Mankato, Tom Emmer R-Delano

Comments: The ninth is southern and southwestern Minnesota. From what I know this area of Minnesota is more like South Dakota and votes as such. Two incumbents live here but I think neither of them would run here. I’m not sure who would run here (David Minge represented this seat in the 90s but he’s too old) but it would probably be Lean R by default.
2008 Election Results: 47 Obama, 53 McCain
112th congress percentages: 43% Walz, 36% Peterson, 12% Bachmann, 7% Kline, 2% Paulsen

10th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is parts of Hennepin (62% of the district), Anoka (31%) and Ramsey (remaining 7%) counties. Anoka County has always interested me since it’s in a liberal metro area yet its voting behavior is like Kentucky coal country, being one of the few Mondale-McCain counties out there. In any event in the Anoka county portion, the democratic tradition is still alive and well as Obama won the Anoka portion by nine points. The Hennepin County portion voted for Obama by about the same number though its traditions are different (I always thought of this area as Rockefeller Republican territory). Either way in an open seat, the democrats will probably throw everything they have at this seat. Tossup for now.
2008 Election Results: 54.8 Obama, 45.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 62% Paulsen, 21% Ellison, 10% Bachmann, 7% McCollum

Missouri

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The first is the northern suburbs of St Louis. The St Louis County portion of the district is 63% of the electorate and contains the airport. This part of the metro area has seen a lot of demographic percentages over the years and is 43% black and Obama in 2008 got 72% here. A lot of the transformation has been from the building of section eight apartments in north county (remember the whole Michael Brown thing happened outside a section eight complex). It seems that the direction of white flight has gone along I-70 and once you cross the Missouri into Charles County it becomes almost all white instantaneously. St Charles has seen its population double since 1980 and the St Charles portion – 37% of the electorate, gave McCain 53% of the vote. Although the district is mostly Clay’s, I doubt he runs in this district since its only 29% black. I’m not sure who the dems run here but it should be pretty safe.
2008 Election Results: 62.8 Obama, 37.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 60% Clay, 38% Akin, 2% Luetkemeyer

2nd District Ann Wagner R-Ballwin

Coments: The second is what you call “West County” in St Louis lexicon. St Louis County has to be one of the most politically divided places in the country when you consider that almost all of the seat is in a county that went 59% for Obama, yet is fairly republican (in fact the non-SLC portion actually went for Obama). It testifies to the fact that St Louis is a racially divided area too as the second is 90% white (compared to 64% in the first and 51% in the third). In any event this is a republican district and Wagner shouldn’t have any trouble winning reelection, although she’s been mentioned as a senate candidate in 2018. Even in an open seat, it should go republican. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 45.3 Obama, 54.7 McCain
112th congress percentages: 65% Akin, 31% Carnahan, 4% Clay

3rd William Clay Jr D-St Louis

Comments: This is all of St Louis proper and some of St Louis County. I’m guessing the St Louis County portion is what you’d call pre-WWII streetcar suburbs. Either way, the third is by far the most dem district in the state and some of the seat hasn’t been represented by a republican in excess of a hundred years. The fact that 54% used to be Carnahan’s and the seat is 50% white, 41% black means that Clay would have really hard a battle against Carny in 2012. But unless he runs again, Clay should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 78.9 Obama, 21.1 McCain
112th congress percentages: 43% Clay, 54% Carnahan, 3% Akin

4th District Blaine Luetkemeyer R-St Elizabeth

Comments: The fourth takes in the central part of the state (the state capital in Jefferson City and much of the college town of Columbia) and stretches all the way to the Kansas border. This is a pretty typical rural Missouri district, which is to say pretty darned conservative. Luetkemeyer lives here but there’s a good chance he runs in the tenth and that Hartzler runs here. It should be pretty safe.
2008 Election Results: 39.3 Obama, 60.7 McCain
112th congress percentages: 67% Hartzler, 24% Luetkemeyer, 6% Long, 2% Graves, 1% Emerson

5th District Emanuel Cleaver D-Kansas City

Comments: The fifth is the Kansas City district. KC has never been as dem leaning as St Louis (mostly due to the lower black population) but nonetheless the fifth is a solid dem district that has only gone republican for president once since 1928 and that was in 1972. Much of the district has not had a republican congressman since the 1940s as well. So Emanuel Cleaver should be safer than ever. He is however in his early 70s and may retire soon so there will probably be a long list of dems gearing up to run here when he retires.
2008 Election Results: 65.7 Obama, 34.3 McCain
112th congress percentages: 91% Cleaver, 9% Graves

6th District Vicky Hartzler R-Harrisonville

Comments: The sixth is the greater Kansas City district with the most well known landmark here being the airport. The district also contains the town of Lexington which was the hometown of congressman (1977-2010) Ike Skelton who, in his last four years in office, chaired the house armed services committee. This seat is substantially less republican than his seat and Skelton would have won rather comfortably here in 2010, although he would have only been in office for a few more years since he died in late 2013. Vicky Hartzler, the incumbent, does have sort of a reputation for foot-in-mouth disease (though nowhere near the extent as someone like Gohmert) and might have trouble here and might run in the safer fourth district. I’d say Lean R.
2008 Election Results: 46.6 Obama, 53.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 57% Graves, 24% Hartzler, 19% Cleaver,

7th District Billy Long R-Springfield

Comments: This is the Ozarks district. The district is pretty similar to neighboring AR-3 in that it’s a region of historic poverty but recent economic growth. Two things headquartered here (Bass Pro and the Assemblies of God) tell you most of what you need to know about the district’s politics. The population growth has maintained the region’s historic republicanism which is kind of like Eastern Tennessee. A lot of the area in the seventh has been represented by a democrat for only four of the last eighty years. The incumbent here is Billy Long who is the most conservative member of the Missouri delegation and should keep winning reelection for as long as he wants.
2008 Election Results: 36.2 Obama, 63.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 99% Long, 1% Hartzler
8th District Jason Smith R-Salem

Comments: The eighth is mostly the bootheel region (the most demosaur part of the state) and some of the Ozarks to the west. From 1935-1981 much of this district was only represented by democrats and since 1981 has only been represented by republicans. But even during much of that time, the district could have conceivably gone dem in an open seat as it was held for 32 years by the Emerson clan (Bill for sixteen years and Joann for another sixteen). By the time Emerson left office in 2013 the seat was pretty far gone over to the republican side and Jason Smith has had no trouble here. He’s more conservative than Emerson but he should be pretty safe and with a seat on Ways and Means and him only being in his mid 30s, he has lifer potential. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 35.8 Obama, 64.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 81% Emerson, 9% Long, 8% Hartzler, 2% Carnahan

9th District Sam Graves R-Tarkio

Comments: The ninth is northern Missouri. Despite being the northernmost part of the state, the district is just as stereotypically rural Missouri as the southern part of the state and just as poor. I wouldn’t be surprised if the population of this district in 1900 was higher than the current population. A lot of the area in this seat used to go back and forth between the parties but it seems the district has finally gone republican for good. Sam Graves is the incumbent here and he sits on two second tier committees (Public Works and Armed Services). I’d rate this Safe R with Graves and likely R in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 44 Obama, 56 McCain
112th congress percentages: 46% Graves, 45% Luetkemeyer, 5% Hartzler, 4% Akin

10th District No Incumbent

Comments: The tenth from what I know is a fairly ancestrally republican district. If you look at this map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5a/Missouri_Presidential_Election_Results_by_County,_1900.svg/340px-Missouri_Presidential_Election_Results_by_County,_1900.svg.png you can see a band of counties in and around St Louis as going republican. The map sort of looks like an ethnic map of Missouri at the time with the republican counties being either German counties in and around St Louis, Yankee republicans in some of the northern parts of the state and pro-union (civil war, not UAW) republicans in the southwest. No incumbent lives here but I think Luetkemeyer would run here. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.8 Obama, 55.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 42% Luetkemeyer, 22% Carnahan, 21% Akin 15% Emerson

Nebraska

1st District Jeff Fortenberry R-Lincoln

Comments: This is the southeastern corner of the state. Much of the population lives in two places –Lancaster County which is where the state capital (Lincoln) is and where the University is. The second is Sarpy County which is an exurban county of Omaha and is pretty solidly republican. Overall, I would say the district is moderately republican – to the left of the state as a whole but still clocking in at R+7 or R+8. Jeff Fortenberry, the district’s incumbent, is a typical go-along-to-get-along type republican though he is more conservative than Bereuter (then again Bereuter is probably the most moderate republican ever in Nebraska). He recently got on the house appropriations committee and could eventually be a cardinal. Safe R with Fortenberry, Likely R otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 46.1 Obama, 53.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 73% Fortenberry, 18% Terry, 9% Smith

2nd District Brad Ashford D-Omaha

Comments: Don’t let the appearance of the district fool you, the vast majority of the seat is in Douglas County (Omaha). Omaha is not particularly a big city but it is the biggest city between Chicago and Denver and is the commercial and industrial center for much of the Great Plains. The Omaha area will usually go republican but there is a decent sized (and militant) black population in North Omaha that sends a Black Panther guy to the legislature. But the dems here might do better with whites if there was no major black population here, so its something of a wash. The second was one of only two districts in 2014 to get rid of a republican congressman. The new congressman, Brad Ashford, seems to be doing everything he should to entrench himself (to the extent that’s possible since he’s in his 60s), though the Rs will most likely target this seat so I’d rate this a tossup for now.
2008 Election Results: 50.6 Obama, 49.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 86% Terry, 14% Fortenberry

3rd District Adrian Smith R-Gehring

Comments: The third is a third of the electorate but three quarters of the land area. As one drives west through the district, the rolling cornfields and wheatlands give way to sand hills and cattle country, much of it devoid of any signs of human habitation for miles on end. This is the part of Nebraska to which settlers flocked to in the 1880s and which they and their descendants have been steadily abandoning ever since. Much of the population here lives along the Platte River (Grand Island, Kearney etc). The district is one of the most republican in the country and I’m pretty sure it hasn’t voted for a democrat for president since 1936. Nonetheless, the seat will occasionally have a close race in an open seat. The incumbent is Adrian Smith who is only 45 and the tenth ranking member on Ways and Means – so he could eventually chair the committee. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 30.5 Obama, 69.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 84% Smith, 16% Fortenberry

Tennessee

1st District Phil Roe R-Johnson City

Comments: This is northeastern Tennessee and is the most stalwart republican district in the state and arguably the country. It’s also the whitest district (92%) in the state. The incumbent is Phil Roe who is pretty old (70) for someone only on their 4th term. It’s possible he retires before 2022 and the district elects a republican with similar views.
2008 Election Results: 29.1 Obama, 70.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 87% Roe, 9% Fleischman, 4% Duncan

2nd District John Duncan R-Knoxville

Comments: The 2nd is the Knoxville district which is home to UT. The 2nd also has republican representation going back to the 19th century, but dems (at least in the past) would often come within striking distance. The district also includes the AEC town of Oak Ridge. The incumbent is John Duncan and he and his father have represented the district for 50 years. He reminds me of Walter Jones (inherited seat, paleocon leaning). He may become chair of the public works committee eventually. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 36.2 Obama, 63.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 64% Duncan, 18% Flesichmann, 18% Desjarlais

3rd District Chuck Fleischmann R-Chattanooga

Comments: Historically this was the state’s most marginal district, set on the line between republican eastern Tennessee and democratic middle Tennessee. The district did elect a democrat to congress as late as the early 90s, but the district is now more republican than the 2nd. Fleischmann is safe in November but vulnerable in august.
2008 Election Results: 33 Obama, 67 McCain
112th congress percentages: 59% Fleischmann, 38% Duncan, 3% Desjarlais

4th District Scott Desjarlais R-South Pittsburg

Comments: The 4th district stretches from Chattanooga almost to Nashville. Historically this was a dem district and from 2002-2010 did elect a democratic congressman, Lincoln Davis. But he lost by nearly 20 points in 2010. The scandal Desjarlais went through in 2012 would have gotten him booted a few years earlier. He is however vulnerable in the primary. Likely R with Desjarlais, Safe R otherwise.
2008 Election Results: 37.6 Obama, 62.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 42% Desjarlais, 23% Blackburn, 21% Black, 14% Fleischmann,

5th District Jim Cooper D-Nashville, Marsha Blackburn R-Brentwood

Comments: The fifth is the Nashville district. Nashville to me is like Austin only more conservative, colder weather, less parties, less country rock (i.e. Allman Brothers), less BBQ and more obsessed with looks and status. Nonetheless, the fifth almost always goes dem and has been represented by democrats since the 1870s. Jim Cooper originally represented a rural district in middle Tennessee from 1983-94 before running for the senate. When Bob Clements ran for the senate in 2002, leaving the fifth open, Cooper ran there where he has remained ever since (he could have ran for his old seat when Hilleary ran for governor but the fifth was a safer seat). Cooper doesn’t sit on the more prestigious Energy and Commerce committee (which he was on in his first stint) but on Armed Services. He has only gotten below 60% once and should stick around for another decade or so. Although she lives here, Blackburn is definitely not running here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 58.2 Obama, 41.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 87% Cooper, 10% Blackburn, 3% Black

6th District Diane Black R-Gallatin

Comments: The 6th stretches 100+ miles east of Nashville along I-40. A good deal of the district is in the Nashville exurbs and is probably the fastest growing in the state. While you may consider exurban southern areas to be the most republican areas in the country – that wasn’t always true for this district. The seat was held for 26 years by Bart Gordon who was a typical Middle Tennessee blue dog. By the time the democrats reclaimed there majority in 2006, he was high up on the Energy and Commerce committee. He was also the member from the most RPVI district to vote for the ACA (albeit after he had announced retirement). The democrats didn’t even contest the seat in 2010 and the seat flipped from safely dem to safely republican instantaneously. The incumbent, Diane Black, is an adept legislator from a safe seat but will likely never accumulate much seniority as she was 59 when first elected (compared to Gordon who was 35).
2008 Election Results: 36 Obama, 64 McCain
112th congress percentages: 71% Black, 15% Cooper, 14% Desjarlais

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: Somewhere in this district is the dividing line between Middle and Western Tennessee. No incumbent lives here but Blackburn probably runs here. Although Blackburn has been in office since 2002, this district might have elected a democrat to congress until 2010 as this is blue dog country. But with the way rural Tennessee is now, Blackburn shouldn’t have too much trouble. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 38.8 Obama, 61.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 39% Blackburn, 34% Fincher, 16% Desjarlais, 6% Black, 5% Cooper
8th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is mostly rural western Tennessee and has the only concentration of rural blacks in the state.  The seat actually has a more republican white vote than TN-1 (I estimated McCain got 73% of the white vote here). Until 2010 this was John Tanner’s district but with Shelby County (40% of the electorate), it makes me wonder if the seat would have gone republican before then. Of course Tanner never got below 62% and may have still won. When Tanner retired in 2010, he was replaced by Stephen Fincher who was a sort of acceptable-to-all-factions republican. Having only been 37 when first elected, he had lifer potential but recently announced his retirement. Fincher was the only republican to have represented the seat since the civil war but the seat is, to quote the eagles, already gone.
2008 Election Results: 37.3 Obama, 62.7 McCain
112th congress percentages: 51% Fincher, 42% Blackburn, 7% Cohen

9th District Steve Cohen D-Memphis

Comments: Memphis has more of a Deep South feel, settled by people from Mississippi. Outside of a window of time where the Crump machine collapsed (and civil rights backlash) and where blacks became the majority, Memphis has always been dem. In some ways the Ford machine replaced the Crump machine and the Fords represented the district for 32 years. The new congressman is Steve Cohen, who is somewhat of an anomaly as a white guy representing a 62% black district. His voting record is as liberal as any black dem though and should be safe in August and obviously in November.
2008 Election Results: 75.2 Obama, 24.8 McCain
112th congress percentages: 82% Cohen, 11% Blackburn, 7% Fincher

Washington

 
1st District No Incumbent

Comments: 69% of the seat is in Snohomish County which I assume is a mix between northern Seattle suburbs and blue collar shipping/aircraft heavy areas. The Snohomish County portion is the most dem part of the county as the portion went for Obama by 25 points. The King County portion is wealthier I think but also more dem (Obama got around 73% of the vote there). No incumbent lives here but I would think DelBene would run here simply because there’s nowhere else for her to run. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.4 Obama, 32.6 McCain
112th congress percentages: 76% Inslee, 15% McDermott, 9% Larsen

2nd District Rick Larsen D-Everett

Comments: The second is more in line with the 2000s second district. I would guess this district is a tight-knight blue collar small city district. This is Scoop Jackson democrat territory and the senator himself represented the seat in the US house from 1941-1952. Likewise, Rick Larsen, the incumbent, is a typical labor dem and usually will not have much trouble here. He did however have tough races in 2002 and 2010 and with similar lines as the 2000s 2nd, he might occasionally have a tough race. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 56.9 Obama, 43.1 McCain
112th congress percentages: 100% Larsen

3rd District JH Beutler R-Camas

Comments: The third runs from a point near Yakima on the east to a few miles inland from the Pacific on the west and from a point near Portland on the south to a point near Olympia on the north. Much of the population though lives in Clark County which has for awhile been the fastest growing part of the Portland area. The third district is probably the only part of the state with any type of republican trend. The incumbent, Jamie Beutler, is a RMSP-type republican and being under 40 and on the Appropriations committee, could have lifer potential. Beutler should probably keep winning reelection though the seat is not far gone to the point where the dems couldn’t win it in an open seat. Likely-to-Safe R with Beutler and Tossup-to-Lean R in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 51.6 Obama, 48.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 93% Beutler, 4% Hastings, 3% Smith, 2% Reichert
4th District Dan Newhouse R-Sunnyside

Comments: The fourth, to me, is the most interesting district in the state. You would think that in a state where Obama got around 55% of the white vote that a 32% Hispanic seat would be D+20. But the fourth has the most republican white vote in the state. It’s kind of the Bakersfield of Washington and votes accordingly. The second factor is that the Hispanics in the fourth district are only 57-58% above the age of 18 which is low even for Hispanics (which average like 67%). Now why there are relatively so many Hispanics in this area as opposed to other areas of the Pacific Northwest, I have no idea. They are, however, pretty recent arrivals and while the seat is 61% White, 32% Hispanic, the electorate is probably north of 75% white. The incumbent here is Dan Newhouse who is a freshman and will probably have a voting record similar to his predecessor, Doc Hastings. He should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 58.7 McCain, 41.3 Obama
112th congress percentages: 4th 87% Hastings, 10% Rogers, 2%, Larsen, 1% Reichert

5th District CM Rogers R-Spokane

Comments: Three quarters of the district lives in Spokane County while the rest of the population lives in or around Pullman (where the A&M school is), Clarkston and Walla Walla (where they fry your ass). The district is pretty republican by Washington standards but pretty blue by Idaho standards (where a dem could probably win a seat like this). I’m not sure why the fifth is less R than the fourth (especially as its whiter) but it is. The incumbent is Cathy Rogers who is on her sixth term and sits on the House Energy and Commerce committee. There have also been rumblings that she could eventually be in house leadership. Safe R with Rogers and Lean/Likely R in an open seat (after all this was Tom Foley’s seat).
2008 Election Results: 47.5 Obama, 52.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 100% Rogers

6th District Derek Kilmer D-Artondale

Comments: The sixth is the pacific coast of Washington. The seat is on the other side of the Puget from Seattle but one where you have to drive all the way down to Tacoma to cross it. A little over forty percent of the population is in Kitsap County, which is prime labor-dem country. The biggest industries here are maritime (shipping and fishing) and logging. The congressman here from 1977-2012 was Norm Dicks who was kind of the John Murtha of the west coast. In his last term in office, he became ranking member of the house appropriations committee. But in his early 70s by that point, he probably didn’t want to wait until he was already too old to chair the committee, so he called it quits. The new congressman, Derek Kilmer probably has the potential to be a lifer like Dicks and at the start of the 114th, was named to the house appropriations committee. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 56.1 Obama, 43.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 6th 68% Dicks, 21% Inslee, 11% Beutler

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: The seventh is the Seattle district. There is a large bohemian population which contributes to the city’s left wing culture. A lot of people living here don’t have children and 84% of the population is over the age of 18. This would have been Jim McDermott’s district but he recently announced his retirement so there should be a contested primary for this seat. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 85.9 Obama, 14.1 McCain
112th congress percentages: 100% McDermott

8th District Suzan DelBene D-Medina Adam Smith D-Bellevue

Comments: This is the silk-stocking district of the Seattle area. There are a lot of corporate headquarters here and people high up in the corporations living here. Although DelBene and Smith live here, this would be Dave Reichert’s district. The district is outside of Reichert’s comfort zone, but he’s obviously battle-tested and this would be a tossup at worst (Unless Burner runs here, then its lean D).
2008 Election Results: 61.6 Obama, 38.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 68% Reichert, 22% Inslee, 8% Larsen, 2% Smith

9th District Dave Reichert R-Auburn

Comments: The ninth is the least dem part of the Seattle area and the district runs from just outside the city limits (SeaTac airport area) to the Cascades and to a point near Tacoma. Although Reichert lives here, this would probably be Adam Smith’s district. Having unseated a republican incumbent in 1996 who was too far-right for the seat, he has advanced to being the ranking democrat on the house armed services committee (its also helped that guys like Skelton, Spratt, Ortiz and Taylor were all swept out of office in 2010). Being only 50, he has a good shot of eventually chairing the committee. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 59.5 Obama, 40.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 54% Smith, 38% Reichert, 6% McDermott, 2% Dicks

10th District Denny Heck D-Olympia

Comments: The reason the third district was held by democrats for as long as it was (46 out of 50 years from 1961-2010) was because of Thurston County, which was the hometown of Brian Baird. It’s also why Beutler had a tough race initially in 2010. The person she defeated, Denny Heck, also ran best in the northern part of the district. Instead of facing a rematch in the third, Heck, whose political career goes back to the 1970s when he represented Clark County in the legislature, decided to run in the new tenth. He should be close to safe here barring some unexpected shift in partisan loyalties.
2008 Election Results: 59.6 Obama, 40.4 McCain
10th 38% Smith, 34% Dicks, 14% Reichert, 14% Beutler

Wisconsin

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: I guess you could say this is the trans Chicago-Milwaukee district. Racine and Kenosha are sort of cities in there own right and the district runs north to a point just outside Milwaukee city limits and south to the Illinois border. No incumbent lives here but this would obviously be Paul Ryan’s district. Ryan is sort of a Jack Kemp type republican – the type you would see giving power points at K Street seminars. Ryan is only in his mid-40s and has accomplished a lot compared to other congressman with similar tenure. I don’t know if the Rs have term limits for speaker like they do for committee chairs but he should stay around until 2022ish. I’d say Safe R with Ryan and Lean R in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 51.8 Obama, 48.2 McCain
112th congress percentages: 91% Ryan, 8% Moore, 1% Sensenbrenner

2nd District Mark Pocan D-Madison

Comments: The second stretches from Madison to the Iowa border. Much of the seat lives in and around Madison but the area near the Iowa border is some of the most liberal rural areas in the Midwest. Madison, being the state capital (government workers) and home of the UW flagship school, would already pretty dem-leaning with just that. But Madison also has a left-wing subculture unmatched only by cities on the east and west coast and is generally a magnet of freaks of various sorts. Mark Pocan is the incumbent here and will probably stay in office for a good twenty years or so. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 66.5 Obama, 33.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 68% Baldwin, 31% Kind, 1% Petri

3rd District Ron Kind D-LaCrosse

Comments: This is west central Wisconsin and runs along the Minnesota border from a point near the twin cities all the way near the Iowa border. The incumbent here is Ron Kind who is the most moderate out of all the Wisconsin dems in congress. He’s occasionally been mentioned as a statewide candidate but I think with him being on Ways and Means and still young by house standards (52) he should stick around for awhile and could eventually chair the committee. Safe D with Kind, lean D in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 57.6 Obama, 42.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 86% Kind, 14% Duffy

4th District Gwen Moore D-Milwaukee

Comments: This is the urban core of Milwaukee. Historically, south of Menominee/I-94 was poles and north of it was germans. In recent years, that has gone away with blacks largely moving into the german areas and Hispanics moving into the polish areas. Being a combined 45% black and Hispanic, the seat is the safest in the state and Gwen Moore should keep winning reelection here, but she may retire before 2022. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 73.1 Obama, 26.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 80% Moore, 17% Sensenbrenner, 3% Ryan
5th district Paul Ryan R-Janesville

Comments: The fifth has to be the most divided district in the state. The Rock Walworth county line and the township line between eastern and western Jefferson County is sort of like the berlin wall of the state between republicans and democrats. Because more of the district is west of the line, you have a fairly strong dem district. Paul Ryan does live here but he obviously wouldn’t run here. As to who could run here, Peter Barca, who was in congress way back when, could run here. The district should, barring a disaster, go to a democrat.
2008 Election Results: 64.5 Obama, 35.5 McCain
112th congress percentages: 63% Baldwin, 30% Ryan, 5% Sensenbrenner, 2% Petri

6th district Glenn Grothman R-Campbellsport

Comments: Many people have wondered why the Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington crescent of counties is as republican as it is and one of the explanations I have is that its not just a suburban thing. Those three counties are merely part of a landmass of ultra-republican areas in the below picture that extend even outside the Milwaukee metro into rural areas like Green Lake, Dodge and the rural areas of Fondulac and Sheboygan counties

This is pretty similar to historic voting patterns in Illinois where DuPage, despite its differing demographics, voted similar to surrounding rural areas. Below picture is 1964 election in Illinois with colors reversed:

The district is the most republican in the state and while Grothy could potentially have a tough race in the current district, he would be safe here, antediluvian views notwithstanding.
2008 Election Results: 43.9 Obama, 56.1 McCain
112th congress percentages: 56% Petri, 37% Sensenbrenner, 7% Baldwin

7th District Sean Duffy R-Weston

Comments: This is close to the geographical center of the state and similar to the old Melvin Laird district of yesteryear. The district is a good cross-section of outstate Wisconsin and is politically marginal. The incumbent is Sean Duffy who has steadily been increasing his margins since 2010. Still, he hasn’t gotten above 60% yet and a lot of this district is new to him. I’d put this at likely R for now.
2008 Election Results: 55.1 Obama, 44.9 McCain
112th congress percentages: 44% Duffy, 35% Petri, 18% Ribble, 3% Kind

8th District No Incumbent

Comments: The eighth is a few small cities in the northern part of Lake Michigan – Green Bay, Appleton and Manitowoc. Germans in the united states are mostly Lutherans but the eighth probably has the highest percentage of german catholics anywhere in the united states. Overall this is a marginal/elastic yet ancestrally republican district and was held by Reid Ribble who announces his retirement recently. There are a lot of ifs on who would run here but the dems would be fools not to give this district newfound attention. I’d rate this somewhere in the tossup to lean R range.
2008 Elections: 56 Obama, 44 McCain
112th congress percentages: 71% Ribble, 29% Petri
9th District Jim Sensenbrenner R-Menomonee Falls

Comments: Two thirds of the seat is in either Waukesha, Washington or Ozaukee county and collectively went for McCain by 25 points. The Milwaukee county portion (the remaining third) is 39% black and went for Obama by 37. With the former outweighing the latter, it translates into a republican lean, albeit way smaller than what Sensenbrenner would be used to. Sensenbrenner was chair of the judiciary committee during the Bush years and should have retired then but he’s still in congress even nine years after being termed out. He’s 72 now so I do see him retiring sooner or later. I’m not sure who the republicans run here but there is probably a long list of prospects. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 47.6 Obama, 52.4 McCain
112th congress percentages: 83% Sensenbrenner, 16% Moore, 1% Ryan

10th district No Incumbent

Comments: This is the far northern part of the state and I think is known as the “northwoods”. Logging is a big deal up here and this is historically labor dem country. No incumbent lives here but a lot of Duffy’s seat is here so I wouldn’t discount the possibility of him running here. Likely R with Duffy, tossup-tilt R without him.
2008 Election Results: 54.3 Obama, 45.7 McCain
62% Duffy, 33% Ribble, 5% Kind

Conclusions: The point of this diary and the thread should be to speculate on who would run in open seats, who might face a surprisingly tough race (in either november or the primary) and how many seats each party would win here using, what I see, is a more objective method (optimal proximity redistricting and apportioning by CVAP).

So to recap here are the first four installments of the series (this is the fifth and final)

Rethinking Redistricting Part I: The Small States

Rethinking Redistricting Part II: CA-FL-NC-AK

Rethinking Redistricting Part III – OH, IL, MI, GA, VA, IN

Rethinking Redistricting Part IV – The Big Small States

So here what I did – I wanted to test the over-concentration of democrats by drawing using my own algorithm and also looking at electorate and not population. So you may be wondering why Texas has 27 seats instead of 36. Well in 2008 Texas was about 6.2% of the electorate so 6.2% of 435 is 27. Comments are welcome and it took me probably a little over a year to do this so I hope you enjoy.

Hawaii

1^st District Mark Takai D-Aiea (Blue)

Comments: I’m not too familiar with Hawaii politics but I would assume this is the less urban (and therefore less democratic) of the two Hawaii seats. The incumbent is Mark Takai who is on his first term. Hawaiian politics is pretty different from the rest of the U.S. and the state is pretty elastic – but he should be pretty safe.

2008 Election Results: 70.7 Obama, 29.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 59% Hirono, 41% Hanabusa

2^nd District Tulsi Gabbard D-Honolulu (Green)

Comments: As I alluded to in the first district write-up – this is the more urban district as it takes in Honolulu, the Big Island and Maui. The district is more dem leaning and has a higher turnout compared to the 1^st (36% of the population voted in the 2^nd compared to 29% in the 1^st). The incumbent is Tulsi Gabbard who is one of the youngest democrats in congress and could definitely be a lifer (though in a state like Hawaii there is a good chance she runs statewide). She is an establishment figure but she surprised people when she endorsed Sanders. Then again this district supported him. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 75.2 Obama, 24.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 55% Hanabusa, 45% Hirono

New Jersey

1^st District No Incumbent

Comments: These are the Riverside suburbs that you can see from Philadelphia’s airport on the other side of the Delaware. Access to Philadelphia is on both the northern and southern ends of the district (the Whitman and Barry bridges). The west-central and southwestern areas of the state are the most democratic parts of the state if you look only at whites. Why this is I don’t know but I would assume this area is sort of the downriver Detroit equivalent of New Jersey (i.e. a lot of blue collar, labor union types). I’m not sure if Norcross would run here or the 3^rd (he lives in the 3^rd) but the seat should go to the democrats as most of the seat has not elected a republican since 1972.

2008 Election Results: 61.7 Obama, 38.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 82% Andrews, 13% LoBiondo, 5% Runyan

2^nd District Frank LoBiondo R-Ventor

Comments: This is a geographically and politically disparate area. On one hand is Atlantic City which is a sort of down-and-dirty gambling town and also has a large minority population. Atlantic City (and therefore Atlantic County) is predictably dem leaning. Further to the south is Cape May County which has a lot of retirees and is more republican. Further to the west you have Vineland which is its own metro area and Salem County which is across the river from Wilmington, Delaware. Separating these areas are miles of densely wooded areas. The second is the ultimate swing district in New Jersey but the seat has been held by Frank LoBiondo since 1994. FLB is probably waiting to become chair of the house public works committee before he retires. I’d put this Likely-to-Safe R with LoBiondo and Tossup otherwise

2008 Election Results: 53.8 Obama, 46.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 89% LoBiondo, 10% Runyan, 1% Andrews

3^rd District Frank Norcross D-Camden

Comments: The third is pretty similar to the first demographically. Norcross could run in either the first or third. If he runs in the first, I’m not sure who runs here in an open seat but it should go to a democrat.

2008 Election Results: 62.8 Obama, 37.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 64% Runyan, 19% Andrews, 15% Smith, 2% LoBiondo

4^th District Chris Smith R-Mercer Township B.W. Coleman D-Ewing Township

Comments: The fourth is the Trenton district. Trenton is halfway between New York and Philadelphia and is the state capital. It’s also home to Princeton University and is ancestrally democratic. Two incumbents live here – Coleman and Smith. Smith is actually eight years younger than Coleman, but has 34 more years of seniority. This is actually similar to the district Smith represented from 1981-1993 but I think he either runs in the twelfth or retires.

2008 Election Results: 63.5 Obama, 36.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 60% Holt, 24% Smith, 15% Lance, 1% Pallone

5^th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the Middlesex County district. It’s mostly just suburbs and is very much a hodgepodge of diverse areas. From white ethnic areas (Middlesex County has a historically large Hungarian population) to wealthy academic areas with a white liberal and Asian population (Rutgers is here) to poor minority areas (Rahway and Perth Amboy) you tend to have a varied seat. But all of those groups with the exception of maybe the white ethnics tend to vote for democrats. No incumbent lives here and I’m not sure who runs here, but it should go dem.

2008 Election Results: 63.8 Obama, 36.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 39.4% Pallone, 31.9% Lance, 11.6% Holt, 8.7% Sires, 7.4% Payne

6^th District Frank Pallone D-Long Branch

Comments: The sixth is stereotypically the closest to the “Jersey Shore” stereotype out of all the NJ districts (the twelfth to the south is more retirees). The incumbent here is Frank Pallone, who has been in office for 27 years and is the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce committee. The district is more republican than what he’s represented before, but he also represented an even more republican district earlier in his career (the 80s 3^rd district would be 53% McCain today). He’s only lost Monmouth County once so he’ll have a good shot here, but he still might have a tough race.

2008 Election Results: 50 Obama, 50 McCain (Obama won by sixty votes)

112^th congress percentages: 50.9% Pallone, 39.3% Holt, 9.8% Smith

7^th District Rodney Frelinghuysen R-Morristown

Comments: The seventh is right smack in the middle of the northern part of the state with a share of republican and democratic areas cancelling each other out. Frelinghuysen lives here but I would think Lance would run here and Frelinghuysen (who is next in line for Appropriations chairman) runs against Garrett. Lance should be safe here.

2008 Election Results: 50.3 Obama, 49.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 46.8% Frelinghuysen, 45.8% Lance, 4.6% Payne, 1.4% Pallone, 1.4% Pascrell

8^th District Bill Pascrell D-Paterson

Comments: The eleventh is the Essex County suburbs, most of lower Passaic County and northeastern Morris County. With the exception of Paterson, the district is mostly upper middle class suburbs. This should be Pascrell’s district. Pascrell is pretty old and may retire soon. I’m not sure who would run here in an open seat but like the ninth, would start out as lean D.

2008 Election Results: 58 Obama, 42 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 56.4% Pascrell, 34.4% Frelinghuysen, 7.4% Payne, 1.8% sires

9^th District No Incumbent

Comments: The ninth is the Bergen County district. Bergen County is one of the older suburban areas in the United States – as the median year a home in the county was built is 1958. This would have been Rothman’s district and he could very well run here in this situation. Not sure who would run here in an open seat but I’d give the dems a slight advantage.

2008 Election Results: 57.6 Obama, 42.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 58.2% Garrett, 34.9% Rothman, 6.9% Pascrell

10^th District Donald Payne Jr D-Newark

Comments: If the image you have of New Jersey is a densely populated, gritty, industrial area (not unlike what you see when driving from Newark Airport to Manhattan) this is the district that best fits that description. The district is anchored by the cities of Jersey City, Newark and Elizabeth. The district has the largest black population (39.9%) and is the most democratic in the state. I would guess Donald Payne Jr runs here.

2008 Election Results: 83.9 Obama, 16.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 59.7% Payne, 33.5% Sires, 3.9% Lance, 1.8% Rothman, 1.1% Pascrell

11^th District Scott Garrett R-Wantage Township, Leonard Lance R-Clinton Township

Comments: This is the most rural and therefore most republican district in the state. It’s a mix between rednecks and mcmansion inhabitants. Two incumbents live here, but this would probably be Garrett’s district. Garrett is of the Paul Weyrich/Richard Viguerie wing of the GOP and seems to be playing the game (in his current district) of seeing what he can get away with. This district, however, is a lot safer and he should be ok. However, there’s a chance that Frelinghuysen (who is given a more hostile seat) should be able to get rid of him.

2008 Election Results: 42.4 Obama, 57.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 54% Garrett, 33.2% Frelinghuysen, 10.9% Lance, 0.9% Holt, 0.9% Pascrell

12^th District Tom MacArthur R-Toms River

Comments: Ocean County is the only part of New Jersey that has seen consistent population growth and can now have its own congressional district. With the exception of some of the orthodox Jewish areas, Ocean County probably scores high on the “Myrtle Beach” test (retirement heavy, not very religious) and will probably vote heavily for Trump. It’s also the most republican district in the state (at least in 2008 it was). The incumbent who lives here is Tom MacArthur and there’s a possibility he could face Chris Smith in a head-to-head matchup. But Smith has been around for 35 years so he might retire. In any event, Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 40.6 Obama, 59.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 61.8% Smith, 38.2% Runyan

13^th District Albio Sires D-West New York

Comments: This is an industrial and urban/streetcar suburb district. This is the most Hispanic (42%) district in the state. With that said, they are probably a lot less percentage of the electorate and the Hispanics who do vote are not a monolith. They are not just the Central American/Puerto-Ricans that are the most common in the tri-state area but a lot of Cubans as well. The district’s congressman, Albio Sires, is himself Cuban. The seat is a lot less democratic than what he’s used to, but Sires should be ok.

2008 Election Results: 63.7 Obama, 36.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 50.8% Rothman, 27.6% Sires, 21.6% Pascrell

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia Area

1^st District (Blue) Incumbent Bob Brady D-Philadelphia

Comments: The 1^st is the south side of Philadelphia and a small part of Delaware County. The dem base here is probably divided between blacks and “white ethnics”. For the past 67 years, this seat has been represented by “white ethnics” though when Bob Brady (who is in his early 70s) retires, it could potentially go to a black democrat. Safe D obviously.

2008 Election Results: 86.6% Obama, 13.4% McCain

112^th congress percentages: 45.3% Brady, 43.9% Fattah, 10.8% Meehan

2^nd District (Green) No Incumbent

Comments: This is north Philly. It takes in the only parts of the city with any Hispanic population to speak of, the white working class areas along the Delaware (like Kensington) and the black neighborhoods in the western part of the district. This would have been Chaka Fattah’s seat but he recently lost renomination. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 85.7% Obama, 14.3% McCain

112^th congress percentages: 40.8% Brady, 38.9% Fattah, 19.3% Schwartz, 1% Gerlach

7^th District (DarkGray) Pat Meehan R-Drexel Hill

Comments: This is the Delaware County district and a seat I would describe as mostly first generation suburbs. Like most first generation suburbs, Delco has seen some trends to the democrats but the republicans can still make a play for the county for row offices. One of those row officers was Pat Meehan, who, if memory serves me right, was DA in Delco. So despite having a more D seat, he’ll have a shot here.

2008 Election Results: 60.9 Obama, 39.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 76.9% Meehan, 12.3% Gerlach, 7.9% Brady, 2.9% Fattah

8th District (SlateBlue) Brendan Boyle D-Philadelphia

Comments: In the mid 50s, having seen the success of his New York development, William Levitt decided to build a second Levittown in Bucks County. That should give you the feel to this district – mainly older suburbs. What’s interesting is that the Philadelphia portion votes the same way as the Bucks portion, despite the fact that the two counties as a whole vote very differently. Also nearby is Trenton, New Jersey which is across the river from the district. So as a whole, you have a white-ethnic, middle class district. Although Boyle lives here, I think he runs in the safer 13th. If Patrick Murphy runs here, I’d have this at lean D.

2008 Election Results: 56.2 Obama, 43.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 74.5% Fitzpatrick, 24.5% Schwartz

13th District (Dark Salmon) No Incumbent

Comments: This is basically the Montgomery County district. Like the seventh and eighth district, the seat is mostly older suburbs. What really gives the seat a dem lean though is the inclusion of north Philadelphia. The Philly portion is 20% of the district, majority black and 90% Obama. Without it, the seat would be 62% Obama. I don’t think any incumbent lives here but I think Brendan Boyle would run here. Boyle is 39 and one of the youngest democrats in office. Unless he wants to run statewide, he could definitely be a lifer. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 69.6 Obama, 30.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 46.4% Schwartz, Fattah 25.6% 11.8% Gerlach, 7.9% Meehan, 4.6% Brady 3.7% Fitzpatrick

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The third district is tucked away between the Lehigh Valley cities of Allentown and Easton, Reading and Philadelphia. The district could basically be called exurban. It’s the only RPVI seat in that part of Pennsylvania. Fitzpatrick would have run here but with him retiring, I’m not sure who runs here. It should go to an R.

2008 Election Results: 52 Obama, 48 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 41.6% Fitzpatrick, 31.7% Dent, 17.9% Schwartz, 8.8% Gerlach

4^th District Keith Rothfus R-Sewickley, Mike Kelly R-Butler

Comments: The fourth runs from the Pittsburgh area to New Castle and to the West Virginia and Ohio borders. The areas to the east (northern Allegheny County and Butler County) are ancestrally republican while the areas to the west are the more democratic areas in the seat. Although Mike Kelly lives here, he would probably run in the 12^th district, so this is Rothfus’s seat. Rothfus unseated an incumbent in 2012 and looked to be set for life, but he was held to 57% in the republican year of 2014, so he’s not totally out of the woods just yet. Likely R.

2008 Election Results: 56.3 McCain, 43.7 Obama

112^th congress percentages: 76.4% Altmire, 9.9% Kelly, 9.8% Murphy, 3.9% Doyle

5th District Glenn Thompson R-Howard, Tom Marino R-Williamsport

Comments: The fifth is rural northern Pennsylvania and is probably the least densely populated district in the northeast (tied with maybe Stefanik and Polquin’s seats). What I think prevents the seat from voting more like Shuster’s seat is the fact that it includes State College (which, as the name suggests, is home to Penn State). Tom Marino lives here and may run here (this is 73% Thompson’s) or he may run in the fair-fight 17^th district against Barletta. Either way, Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 45 Obama, 55 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 73.1% Thompson, 19.8% Marino, 4.5% Shuster, 2.3% Kelly, 0.2% Critz, 0.1% Barletta

6th District No Incumbent

Comments: The sixth is anchored by the small cities of Reading, Pottsville and Lebanon. I would describe the district as being fairly labor dem-y. It’s pretty similar to the district Tim Holden represented in the 90s and Gus Yatron before him. If Holden wants to run again, this would be his shot. I’d call this Likely D with Holden, tossup otherwise.

2008 Election Results: 49.6 Obama, 50.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 55.1% Holden, 32.3% Gerlach, 10% Pitts, 2.6% Dent

9^th District Bill Shuster R-Hollidaysburg

Comments: This is the most republican district in Pennsylvania and one of the reasons (besides being 94% white) is the fact that its one of the few parts of the Northeast without many late 19^th/early 20^th century immigrants. The district is mostly Scots-Irish, which is interesting since this is an ancestrally R district, and that used to be a dem voting bloc. The one area not like that is Johnstown which is more catholic/labor-y. Shuster and his father have represented much of this area for a combined 43 years and both have chaired the house public works committee. Still, Shuster has had a few tough primary elections as of late and nearly lost this year. The fact that this district takes in Johnstown certainly helps him. Nonetheless, once his three terms is up, he might retire anyway. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 38.1 Obama, 61.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 64.9% Shuster, 28.5% Murtha, 5.3% Murphy, 1.3% Platts

10^th District Matt Cartwright D-Moosic

Comments: For the first time in probably over a century, the bulk of Luzerne and Lackawanna counties are in the same district. Both are very industrial and with a large catholic population, so the seat can usually be counted on to go for democrats. Nonetheless, Matt Cartwright, the incumbent, seems like the wrong type of democrat for this seat and I hope he gets a primary challenge. I’d put this at Likely D.

2008 Election Results: 56.6 Obama, 43.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 50.6% Marino, 49.4% Barletta

11^th District Ryan Costello R-West Chester

Comments: The eleventh is, more or less, the Chester county seat. This is a more exurban district than the 7^th/8^th/13^th districts and probably has more in common with the third. The seat actually looks pretty similar to the Richard Schulze seat of the 70s and 80s. It’s also RyaninSEPA’s district. In any event, the incumbent here is Ryan Costello who is a fairly moderate republican. I’d rate this Lean R.

2008 Election Results: 54.4 Obama, 45.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 52.3% Gerlach, 26.3% Meehan, Pitts 21.5%

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania. The district contains the industrial cities of Erie, New Castle and Sharon and some of the few areas of western Pennsylvania that have always been republican (Venango and Crawford). Overall, the district has a slight republican lean and I’d rate this Lean R. No incumbent lives here but Mike Kelly would run here. He’s already in his 60s so he could retire in the near future.

2008 Election Results: 51.8 Obama, 48.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 76.7% Kelly, 12.7% Altmire, 10.6% Thompson

14^th District Mike Doyle D-Swissvale

Comments: The fourteenth is the only part of western Pennsylvania that has remained democratic. Part of the reason is that this is obviously an urban district and the usual appeals that have swung people in other parts of western Pennsylvania won’t work here. The incumbent here is Mike Doyle, who is a typical labor democrat. He sits on the Energy and Commerce committee and while he may never chair the committee, has a good shot at becoming a subcommittee chair. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 68.4 Obama, 31.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 73.6% Doyle, 23.4% Murphy, 3% Altmire

15^th District Charlie Dent R-Allentown

Comments: The fifteen is the Lehigh Valley district and has pretty similar demographics to the tenth. The district should go to a democrat in an open seat but Charlie Dent is a moderate R, so I’d put this at Lean to Likely R.

2008 Election Results: 57.7 Obama, 42.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 73.4% Dent, 26.1% Barletta, 0.5% Holden

16th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is Pennsylvania Dutch country and is one of the more ancestrally republican districts in the country (Lancaster County hasn’t been represented by a dem since the 1880s). No incumbent lives here (though Pitts, despite living in the eleventh, would have run here) but the seat should go republican. Not sure who runs here though.

2008 Election Results: 43.7 Obama, 56.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 72.9% Pitts, 27.1% Platts

17th District Lou Barletta R-Hazleton

Comments: I would call this district the Susquehanna Valley district as the seat almost follows the river. Outside of Harrisburg, which is partially in the district, the seventeenth is almost all rural. I could see Barletta and Marino going up against each other here. I’m not sure who would win in a h2h matchup but it’s a safe R seat.

2008 Election Results: 43.5 Obama, 56.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 29.2% Holden, 26.3% Marino, 21.2% Barletta 9.3% Thompson, 8.4% Shuster, 5.6% Platts

18th District Tim Murphy R-Upper St Clair

Comments: The eighteenth is coal country with a fair amount of steel the closer you get to Pittsburgh. This is one of those demosaur districts that from 1932 to 2000 most likely only went dem for president once – in 1972. The seat takes in a lot more areas that were kept out of Murphy’s district during the 2000s and could potentially give him trouble. I’d put this Likely R with Murphy, but the seat could get interesting if he retires.

2008 Election Results: 48 Obama, 52 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 48.7% Murphy, 40.2% Critz, 8.1% Doyle, 3% Shuster

19^th District Scott Perry R-Carroll Township

Comments: The nineteenth is split between the York and Harrisburg areas with one rural county (Adams County, where Gettysburg is). The seat is less republican than the 4^th/19^th in past iterations, but it should still go republican, even to a reactionary like Perry.

2008 Election Results: 46.8 Obama, 53.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 77.5% Platts, 18.5% Holden, 2.5% Shuster, 1.5% Pitts

20th District No Incumbent

Comments: The twentieth looks like a mashup between the Murtha and Gaydos’ districts of the 80s. Like the eighteenth, this is a demosaur district. Being an open seat, I can see the democrats making a play for the seat, though I’d put it at Lean R.

2008 Election Results: 46.3 Obama, 53.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 26.1% Murphy, 21.2% Critz, 20.5% Altmire, 14.7% Doyle, 9.2% Shuster, 7.9% Kelly, 0.4% Thompson

New York

NYC Area

1^st District (Blue) Lee Zeldin R-Shirley

Comments: This is the far eastern part of Long Island. Geographically, a lot of it is rural and full of small villages/hamlets. The most well known landmark here is the Hamptons which is where a lot of celebrities own homes (but in many cases, don’t vote there). In any event, this is Lee Zeldin’s district. Zeldin had run for the district in 2008 and lost by fifteen points but came back in 2014 and won by almost ten points. Zeldin is fairly young and not much different ideologically than your typical LI republican. With Trump as the nominee, he should be favored.

2008 Election Results: 52.9 Obama, 47.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 91% Bishop, 9% Israel

2^nd District (Green) No Incumbent

Comments: Driving westward from Riverhead all the way to Manhattan, this is where things become more densely populated. The district is the slightly more republican out of the two Suffolk County districts and with Steve Israel retiring, the republicans might have a shot here. It really depends how well Trump does here. FWIW, he got around 70% here in the primary.

2008 Election Results: 52.1 Obama, 47.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 65.1% Israel, 19.9% King, 15% Bishop

3^rd District (Dark Magenta) Peter King R-Seaford

Comments: The third is the most republican of the Long Island districts and the district’s congressman, Peter King, is probably a good representation of what a republican in this neck of the woods is like. The district is mostly mid-20^th century homes, the most well known being Levittown. In the twelve times he has been elected congressman here, King’s closest race was in 1992 when he won by about three points. His closest race as an incumbent was in 2006 when he was held to 56%. The democrats probably won’t beat him but given his age (72) they could pick the seat up when he retires.

2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 68.1% King, 21.4% Israel, 10.5% McCarthy

4^th District (Red) Kathleen Rice D-Garden City

Comments: The fourth is the most democratic part of Long Island and while you would think it has to do with the heavily-black Queens portion of the district (15% of the electorate is in Queens), that’s not the whole story. Even without Queens, the seat is 60% Obama and is the most democratic part of LI simply because it’s the part of LI with the most blacks, Jews, Central Americans and the area with the least Catholics and WASPs. It’s also the first part of Long Island that was settled and some of the district is pre-WWII streetcar suburbs. The incumbent here is Kathleen Rice, who before being elected congress, was the DA in Nassau County. She’s a rank-and-file democrat and won’t have trouble winning reelection to the actual fourth much less this version.

2008 Election Results: 65.2 Obama, 34.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 73.6% McCarthy, 16.8% King, 9.6% Meeks

5^th District (Gold) Grace Meng D-Queens

Comments: The fifth is the northwest shore of Long Island, NE Queens and a small part of the Bronx. It’s also the most Asian district outside of California and Hawaii. Half of the seat is in Queens and the Queens portion is the most middle class part of the borough and the least democratic part (Obama got 65% in the queens county portion). The other forty percent is in Nassau County. I imagine the Nassau County part of the district to be the most stereotypically Gatsby –esque with a lot of old homes occupying an acre each and where life is slower compared to nearby New York City. Anyways, the Nassau County portion is the most republican part of the district, having gone for Obama by three points. The other ten percent of the district is across the Throgs Neck and Whitestone Bridge in the Bronx. Although it’s comparably more white and republican than the rest of the Bronx, the Bronx portion is still 82% Obama and 77% black and Hispanic. Therefore the Bronx portion skews the democratic margins and is a disproportionate share of the non-Asian minority population. The incumbent here is Grace Meng who, having been elected to congress at 37, has lifer potential. I’d put this at Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 61.8 Obama, 38.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 56.6% Ackerman, 18.2% McCarthy, 11.3% Crowley, 10.2% Meeks, 3.7% Turner

6^th District (Teal) Greg Meeks D-Queens

Comments: On the east end west ends of the district are two black ghettos (Ocean Hill/Brownsville and St Albans/South Jamaica) with a lot of white ethnic areas in between (like Ozone Park and Howard Beach). The most notable landmark here is JFK Airport which is one of the busiest airports in the country. The incumbent is Greg Meeks who is on his ninth full term and a senior member of the Banking and Foreign Affairs committees. Although he was for awhile, accused of an ethics violation, he was eventually cleared of it and has never gotten below 67% in a primary so he’s safe.

2008 Election Results: 88.2 Obama, 11.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 44.5% Meeks, 28.9% Towns, 14.2% Turner, 7% Velazquez, 6.4% Clarke

7^th District (Dark Gray) Joe Crowley D-Queens

Comments: This is the northwest part of Queens and tends to vote as the county votes as a whole. Included in the seat is LaGuardia Airport and Citi Field, where the Mets play and the location of the 1939 and 1964-65 worlds fairs. The district is by far the lowest turnout district in the northeast and the fifth lowest turnout district in the country (only 26% of the population voted in 2008). This probably has to do with half the district likely being immigrants and many of them aren’t yet full citizens. Because of the high immigrant population, politics is still disproportionately run by the Old Italian and Irish populations. The district’s congressman, Joe Crowley, is definitely of that ilk and controls the local politics in Queens. He is only 54 and sits on the House Ways and Means committee so he’ll likely be in the house for awhile longer. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 76 Obama, 24 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 26.6% Turner, 22.9% Velazquez, 19.7% Crowley, 19.7% Maloney, 11.1% Ackerman

8^th District (SlateBlue) Yvette Clarke D-Brooklyn, Hakeem Jeffries D-Brooklyn

Comments: The eighth is the only district entirely inside of Brooklyn and runs in a southeastern direction from Prospect Park, along Flatbush Avenue, all the way to the ocean. The district is fairly segregated with the heavily black areas around Crown Heights/East Flatbush in the northeastern areas, the Bridge & Tunnel/Eastern European/Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods of Marine Park, Sheepshead Bay and Bergen Beach; and the SWPL areas in Park Slope. My guess is that the two black Brooklyn democrats would face off here with an advantage going to Clarke simply because she’s represented more of the area (though Jeffries is probably smarter).

2008 Election Results: 78.3 Obama, 21.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 56.2% Clarke, 19.8% Towns, 18.4% Turner, 3.5% Velazaquez, 2.5% Nadler

9^th District (Cyan) Dan Donovan R-Staten Island

Comments: The ninth is the Staten Island district, although probably only 55% of the electorate lives there. SI has always been different from the rest of New York and is less Jewish (and the ones that live there tend to be orthodox) and less minority. The whole Archie Bunker stereotype is most prevalent here, especially south of the expressway. The Brooklyn portion is pretty similar though maybe slightly more dem leaning. Although there are plenty of “Bridge and Tunnel” areas like Bensonhurst, the population tends to be newer arrivals, especially in areas like Little Odessa (Eastern Europeans), Orthodox (Borough Park) and Asians. The incumbent is Dan Donovan, who was elected in a special election last year and was the former District Attorney in SI. He should be fine with Trump being the nominee.

2008 Election Results: 50.1 Obama, 49.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 73.2% Grimm, 21.3% Nadler, 5.2% Velazquez, 0.3% Turner

10^th District (DeepPink) Jerrold Nadler D-Manhattan, Nydia Velazquez D-Brooklyn

Comments: I would call this the “Brooklyn Bridge” district as the seat takes in lower Manhattan and the areas of Brooklyn on the other side of the bridge. The Brooklyn portion (almost half the district) is what I would call the “downtown area” of the borough. In fact, until 1898, it was its own independent city. The district is the most tourist attraction-heavy part of the city and the most non-native part of the city (the townies tend to live in Queens, South Brooklyn and SI). Jerry Nadler would be the congressman here and is a potential future chair of the house Judiciary committee. Nydia Velazquez has also been in office for as long as he has and could run here, though there’s a definite possibility she just retires as her seat has been dismembered. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 88.8 Obama, 11.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 25.9% Towns, 25.5% Nadler, 20.5% Velazquez, 14.6% Maloney, 13.5% Clarke

11^th District (Chartreuse) Carolyn Maloney D-Manhattan

Comments: The eleventh is quite possibly the wealthiest congressional district in the country with lots of famous people live here, including Donald Trump. The district’s congresswoman is Carolyn Maloney who, as everyone on RRH agrees, is a hack. Fortunately though she’s 70 so she should retire sooner or later. Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 81.3 Obama, 18.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 54.9% Maloney, 33.4% Nadler, 11.7% Rangel

12^th District (Cornflower Blue) Jose Serrano D-Bronx

Comments: If the image you have of New York City (at least 30-40 years ago) is as of burned down apartment buildings, open-air drug markets and graffiti – this is the area you’re probably thinking of – Harlem and the South Bronx. This would be the first time in forever that these two areas were in the same district. It would have been a Rangel-Serrano primary matchup – but Rangel is retiring. Like Rangel, Serrano has been in politics for a long time (26 years in the house, 15 in the state legislature) and is now the fourth ranking democrat on appropriations. Serrano is 72 and I can see him staying in office for a few more cycles before he too retires.

2008 Election Results: 95.1 Obama, 4.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 61% Rangel, 39% Serrano

13^th District (Dark Salmon) Eliot Engel D-Bronx

Comments: This is mostly the Bronx (75-80% of the electorate) with small parts of Westchester and Manhattan. The district is 75% minority which could theoretically hurt Engel but don’t forget that he also represented an even more minority district during the 90s. Engel is something of a backbencher and nearing 70, so I could see him retire in the coming years.

2008 Election Results: 85.5 Obama, 14.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 43.1% Engel, 30.8% Crowley, 16.5% Serrano, 6.9% Rangel, 2.7% Lowey

14^th District (Olive) Nita Lowey D-Harrison

Comments: The fourteenth is the Westchester County district as 84% of the district is in that county. Westchester County is a relatively old suburban area as the median home in the county was built in 1955. Outside of Manhattan, Westchester is prime limousine liberal country. Part of that has to do with settlement patterns. My guess is that the Irish and Italian population spread eastward from Brooklyn and Queens into LI while the Jewish population spread north from Manhattan. The district’s congresswoman is Nita Lowey, who is a longtime member of congress but is also old (will turn 80 next term). I wouldn’t be surprised if the 115^th were her last congress. I’m sure there are a long line of democrats wanting to run in this donor-heavy district.

2008 Election Results: 61.5 Obama, 38.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 80.3% Lowey, 19.7% Engel

15^th District SP Maloney D-Cold Spring

Comments: The fifteenth is a transitional district between the greater NYC area and upstate. It’s sort of an exurban district. The incumbent is Sean Patrick Maloney, who unseated an incumbent in 2012 and won a close election in 2014. I’d put this as Likely D. 2008 Election Results: 53.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 68.7% Hayworth, 16.6% Engel, 14.7% Lowey

16^th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the first real upstate district and is a combination of small cities like Poughkeepsie, Middletown, Newburgh and a good part of Ulster County. If I remember right, this district was almost drawn in 2001 and was supposed to be a matchup between Ben Gilman, a moderate republican and Maurice Hinchey, an abrasive moonbat. But Gilman retired and Hinchey was able to keep Ithaca which is why he stayed in office for so long. No incumbent lives here and in an open seat, this would be a tossup.

2008 Election Results: 55.1 Obama, 44.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 51.5% Hinchey, 35.2% Hayworth, 13.3% Gibson

17^th District No Incumbent

Comments: The seventeenth is the Albany district. Albany is the most ancestrally democratic part of upstate New York, even more so than Buffalo. No incumbent lives here but I would think Tonko would run here. He’s easily the most liberal person to ever represent this area, but I’d put this at Likely D.

2008 Election Results: 59.9 Obama, 40.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 61.2% Tonko, 29.9% Gibson, 8.9% Hinchey

18^th District Paul Tonko D-Amsterdam

Comments: The eighteenth is the northern Hudson Valley and a collection of cities north of Albany such as Saratoga Springs, Schenectady, Glens Falls, Johnstown and Amsterdam. Although Tonko lives here, and Gibson lives in the 17^th – they would have swapped seats had Gibson not retired. Although the district borders the very liberal state of Vermont, the seat has an R+ PVI. Twenty years ago, this seat was represented by Gerald Solomon whose ACU averaged around ninety. But I doubt he could get elected here today and any future republican will be more like Gibson. In an open seat, I’d rate this Tossup, maybe slightly R leaning.

2008 Election Results: 51.7 Obama, 48.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 57.1% Gibson, 39% Tonko, 3.6% Owens, 0.3% Hanna

19^th District No Incumbent

Comments: The nineteenth district is a mashup of the southern parts of the 2000s 24^th and the more liberal areas from Hinchey’s district. No incumbent lives here but there would probably be a competitive race. I’d rate this as a tossup.

2008 Election Results: 54.3 Obama, 45.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 43.7% Hanna, 33.4% Hinchey, 8.9% Reed, 5.3% Gibson, 4.8% Reed, 3.9% Buerkle

20^th District Elise Stefanik R-Willsboro

Comments: The district is like the current 21^st except that it loses the upper Hudson Valley to the south and takes in the Mohawk Valley cities of Utica and Rome. The result is somewhat of a wash or maybe a slight R trend. Overall you have a very white, small city and culturally insular district. The incumbent here is Elise Stefanik who is the youngest member of congress. She won pretty convincingly in 2014, but the dems also didn’t make an effort on the seat. I’d put this at Likely R.

2008 Election Results: 51.8 Obama, 48.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 63.3% Owens, 31% Hanna, 3.4% Buerkle, 2.3% Gibson

21^st District John Katko R-Camillus

Comments: The 21^st is the Syracuse district. The past five elections have featured Dan Maffei. In 2006 he nearly knocked off a nine term incumbent and when Walsh retired in 2008, he won by around ten points. He did lose reelection in 2010 but came back to win the seat in 2012. But he actually got a smaller percentage of the vote in 2012 than he did in 2010 despite winning (meaning he won a plurality) against someone clearly too far right for the district. I was not surprised that he lost in 2012 but I am surprised that he lost by the margin he did (nearly 20 points). Katko should be fairly safe going forward.

2008 Election Results: 57.4 Obama, 42.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 74.7% Buerkle, 13.2% Hanna, 11.5% Owens, 0.6% Reed

22^nd District Louise Slaughter D-Fairport

Comments: The twelfth is the Rochester district. Rochester is doing somewhat better than Buffalo but it still falls into the “economically depressed upstate city” archetype. For almost thirty years, this has been Louise Slaughter’s district. Slaughter at one point had been a strong incumbent – having gotten 56% in the tough democratic year of 1994. She also hit the jackpot when Martin Frost, Tony Hall and Joe Moakley all died/retired/lost reelection over a three and a half year period and she ascended to the chair of the Rules committee in 2007. Slaughter is now 86 and her political clout has declined both at home and in Washington. The republicans took over congress in 2011 and in 2014; she won by her lowest margin ever – by less than a thousand votes. She’ll be favored in 2016, but this will probably be her last term.

2008 Election Results: 61.1 Obama, 38.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 36.4% Slaughter, 27.7% Reed, 22.1% Buerkle, 13.8% Hochul

23^rd District Chris Collins R-Clarence

Comments: The 23^rd is the Trans Buffalo-Rochester district. Although this is an R+6 or so district, John LaFalce, a democrat, represented this district for 28 years. The current incumbent is Chris Collins, who is one of the few house members to endorse Trump. He’s probably more conservative than your average NY repub but still definitely to the left of your average congressional pub. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 47.6 Obama, 52.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 63.6% Hochul, 28.8% Slaughter, 5.5% Reed, 2.1% Higgins

24^th District Brian Higgins D-Buffalo

Comments: This is the Buffalo district. As the city has been bleeding population (581,000 in 1950 to 261,000 in 2010) the district has had to keep expanding. Because the surrounding territory is republican, that makes the Buffalo district less dem. Nonetheless, this is still a safe democratic district for Brian Higgins or any other sane democrat.

2008 Election Results: 63.2 Obama, 36.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 63% Higgins, 22.4% Slaughter, 14.6% Hochul

25^th District Tom Reed R-Corning

Comments: The 25^th takes in the most republican areas of the southern-tier and is the most republican district in the state. Like the 23^rd, it lies just outside the reach of both the Buffalo and Rochester areas. The incumbent here is Tom Reed, who is now on his third term. He had a close call in 2012, but without Ithaca, he should be safe.

2008 Election Results: 46.2 Obama, 53.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 56.6% Reed, 29.4% Higgins, 11.9% Hochul, 2.1% Buerkle

Texas

1^st District Louie Gohmert R-Tyler

Comments: The first is the northeastern part of Texas. The seat is populist in nature and the edge of the Deep South. In the old days this would mean the seat would vote for democrats (think Wright Patman) but increasingly that means republican. The one area that maybe doesn’t fit in with the rest of the seat is the area around Tyler and Longview which has been republican (by Texas standards) for a long time. Tyler is also the hometown of the district’s congressman, Louie Gohmert. Gohmert in some ways has carried on the populist tradition in the district, though in a more paranoid way. He’s made some crazy ass remarks before but this district is one of the most republican in the nation. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 31.3 Obama, 68.7 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 50.4% Gohmert, 43.2% Hall, 6.4% Hensarling

2^nd District Brian Babin R-Woodville

Comments: The second is another east Texas district. It wasn’t all that along ago that this area was represented by a democrat (Jim Turner). In 2003, his district was carved up and he retired. Nonetheless, even if his seat hadn’t been carved up, it would have only bought him three more terms. He likely would have lost in 2010 just as Chet Edwards did. The incumbent here is Brian Babin, who actually ran against Turner in the 90s. He’s already 68 so he’ll probably only serve a few terms. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 28.4 Obama, 71.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 37.9% Brady, 37.4% Gohmert, 11.4% Hensarling, 9.2% Barton, 4.1% Flores

DFW Metroplex

3^rd District (Dark Magenta) Sam Johnson R-Plano, Pete Sessions R-North Dallas

Comments: The third is the north Dallas seat. The stereotype of Dallas 30ish years ago probably originates here and Southfork Ranch is in this district. Back in those days, this seat was probably one of the most republican in the nation. The seat has moderated somewhat and besides the demographic change (the seat is down to 52% white) it has to do with the influx of the tech industry here (though TI has been in this area for a few decades). I’d like to think that in a decade or so that the district has the potential to vote more like Irvine or somewhere like that (post-industrial economy, high Asian population, winnable for dems) but as it stands, the district is still R+10. The seat is mostly Sam Johnson’s but he’s also super old and I’d assume he would defer to Pete Sessions. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 43.4 Obama, 56.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 60.3% (Sam) Johnson, 24.4% Sessions, 11.7% Marchant, 2.8% Hall, 0.8% Hensarling

5^th District (Gold) EB Johnson D-Dallas, Jeb Hensarling R-Dallas

Comments: The fifth is the mostly inside the 635 loop and takes in the oldest parts of the Dallas area. The inclusion of the park cities (the old money of the area) puts a significant dent in the democratic majorities, but the seat should go to a dem. Nonetheless, there’s a possibility that neither of the two incumbents here would be representing the district. Hensarling, as I mentioned, would probably run in the fourth. Johnson would probably face a strong primary challenge by a white liberal trial lawyer type. So the seat should go to a democrat but the question is who.

2008 Election Results: 60.8 Obama, 39.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 40.9% (EB) Johnson, 31.1% Hensarling, 24.2% Sessions, 3.8% (Sam) Johnson

12^th District (Cornflower Blue) Kay Granger R-Fort Worth Marc Veasey D-Fort Worth

Comments: The twelfth is the Fort Worth district. Kay Granger has a district that is way swingier than anything she’s represented and Marc Veasey has a district he probably isn’t a good fit for either. My guess is that Veasey might just run in the 24^th. This is an ancestrally democratic district (this was Jim Wright’s district) so Granger might have some trouble here. She might retire soon anyways which would give the dems a good chance to pick this seat up. I’d rate this Lean R with Granger, tossup in an open seat.

2008 Election Results: 49.9 Obama, 50.1 McCain (McCain won by 356 votes)

112^th congress percentages: 50.6% Granger, 27.9% Burgess, 19.1% Barton, 2.4% Marchant

24^th District (Indigo) No Incumbent

Comments: The 24^th district the “mid-cities- district” as Grand Prairie, Arlington and Irving are in between the twin cities of Dallas and Fort Worth. Arlington is probably the most well known of them as it’s the biggest in population (almost 400K people), has a UT campus, a six flags and is where the Cowboys and Rangers play. The district is politically divided as about 40% of the district is east of Mountain Creek and Joe Pool Lakes. This area is 50% black, 32% Hispanic and Obama won this area by 57 points. In the remaining 60%, although still 18% black, 37% Hispanic, Obama won by less than a percentage point. Given that the district is 29% black and an even higher percentage of the electorate, my guess is that Mark Veasey would run here. It’s not as safe as what he’s used to representing but unless he’s an idiot he should be fine.

2008 election Results: 61.4 Obama, 38.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 36.7% Barton, 28.7% Marchant, 26.2% Johnson, 8.4% Sessions

26^th District (Gray) Kenny Marchant R-Carrollton, Michael Burgess R-Lewisville

Comments: The 26^th is the northwestern suburbs of the DFW area and includes DFW Airport, which opened in the mid 70s and probably predates most of the residential/commercial construction in this area. This area is newer and faster growing than any of the other four DFW districts and as a result is more new money, more socon and way more republican than any of the other four districts. In fact it is the most republican of any district with a population density of 1000 ppsm or higher. Two incumbents live here but I think Burgess runs in the thirteenth district. The incumbent, Kenny Marchant is only on his sixth term but is sort of an old-timer to this area. He graduated from Turner high school in 1969 (which is in this district) and has been involved in local politics continuously for 36 years. The current 26^th is considerably safer than his current seat and is utterly safe.

2008 Election Results: 35.8 Obama, 64.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 50.6% Marchant, 40.1% Burgess, 5.7% Sessions, 3.6% Granger

4^th District  John Ratcliffe R-Heath, Joe Barton R-Ennis

Comments: The fourth is a half east Texas, half Dallas exurb seat. The district looks sort of like the pre-2003 4^th district but with the northern part cut off. Two incumbents live here and I would think Hensarling would also run here. So there’s a possibility of a three-person primary. Although only 17% of Barton’s seat is in the fourth, the other option he has (the 24^th where 36% of his seat is) is a 60ish percent Obama seat where he would be screwed. Nonetheless, I think Barton, who is already termed out on Energy and Commerce, retires. I’m not sure who would win in a Hensarling-Ratcliffe matchup (as both of them are #trucons) but it would be an interesting matchup. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 33.7 Obama, 66.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 42.3% Hensarling, 26.5% Hall, 17% Barton, 9.8% (Sam) Johnson, 3.6% (EB) Johnson, 0.8% Gohmert

6^th District Bill Flores R-Bryan John Carter R-Round Rock

Comments: The sixth is nearly tucked away between Houston and Austin and is where East Texas meets Central Texas. On both ends of the seat, you’re starting to see population growth in the exurbs of both metro areas. The current and historical anchor of this district however, is Brazos County which is home to Texas A&M University. TAM is one of the more conservative public universities in the country and has an almost cult-like football fan base. Even though two incumbents live here, I think Flores runs in the eleventh and if he were to run at all (he’s close to 75) Carter would run in the 21^st. Because he’s absolutely screwed in his current seat, McCaul would likely run here and the question is whether Flores and Carter would extend the favor. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 36.9 Obama, 63.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 33.6% McCaul, 30.9% Carter, 24.2% Flores, 8% Doggett, 3.3% Brady

Houston Area

7^th District (Dark Gray) John Culberson R-Houston

Comments: One of the things about Sunbelt metro areas is that the city/suburb distinction isn’t really clear and this is even more so in Houston where you have a lot of unincorporated area. The best way to look at things is to see where the school districts are to see what is a suburb and what is not. If suburb boundaries corresponded to school districts, the main suburbs here would be Cypress, Katy and Spring Branch. This area of Houston has been republican for a long time and while this area used to be R+20-25ish in the past, there’s no reason to think Culberson can’t keep winning reelection. Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 39.9 Obama, 60.1 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 51% Culberson, 26.2% McCaul, 15.5% Lee, 7.3% Paul

8^th District (SlateBlue) Kevin Brady R-The Woodlands, Ted Poe R-Humble

Comments: The eighth is the northern suburbs of Houston. As I mentioned in the seventh district write-up – its easier to see where the suburbs are in Harris County if you look at the school districts (Humble, Klein, Spring, Aldine, Tomball). The other 27% of the district is in Montgomery County and is dominated by the master-planned community of the Woodlands. The biggest landmark here is the Houston Airport, which is the only airport in the south that is a united hub (since they bought out Continental). Because Texas would go down from 36 to 27 seats in this scenario, a lot of races would be double-bunks. In this case, it would be Kevin Brady and Ted Poe. Numerically, Poe has the advantage but Brady also represented a lot of this area before 2005. Neither of them are ideologically that different and both would be safe in November.

2008 Election Results: 37.1 Obama, 62.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 43.1% Poe, 27.5% Brady, 13.7% McCaul, 10.8% Lee, 4.3% (Gene) Green, 0.6% Culberson

18^th District (Yellow) SJ Lee D-Houston, Gene Green D-Houston

Comments: Had Houston not been allowed to keep annexing area – the city limits would look more something like this. The 18^th is obviously the older part of the Houston area – the median year a home was built here was 1968. The district is safely in democratic hands but the question would be – who would win the primary. Even though more of the district belongs to SJL – she is a buffoon and I would give an advantage to Green.

2008 Election Results: 68.7 Obama, 31.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 38.9% Lee, 27% Culberson, 21.1% (Gene) Green, 10.4% (Al) Green, 2.6% Olson

25^th District (PaleVioletRed) Al Green D-Houston, Pete Olson R-Sugarland

Comments: The 25^th is the southwest suburbs of Houston and some of the city also. This was a pretty booming area in the 70s as 29% of the homes here were built in that decade. Politically, much of the area in Green’s 2000s district is heavily democratic and is full of subsidized housing. The edges of the district (area around Rice and some areas north of Westheimer, as well as Sugarland) are what temper the district’s PVI. Obviously Pete Olson wouldn’t have a chance here but Al Green is an idiot as evidenced by this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u84hmvv1qEk. I think Al Green might lose in a primary to someone like Hubert Vo. Likely D with Green, Safe D otherwise.

2008 Election Results: 59.5 Obama, 40.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 48.2% (Al) Green, 31.4% Olson, 20.4% Culberson

9^th District No Incumbent

The ninth is where East Texas meets the Gulf Coast. A third of the district is in Harris County. The Harris County portion is sort of Houston’s equivalent of Downriver Detroit (i.e. smoggy and industrial). That description does sound like a dem voting area but the Harris County portion went for McCain by almost twenty points. The other major source of votes is Jefferson County which is one of the more loyal democratic districts in Texas (not having voted republican for president since 1972). Nonetheless, the only reason Jefferson County votes dem for president now is because of the black vote and other counties that used to be dem (like Orange, Hardin, Jasper, Newton) have fallen off the deep end (sort of Texas’s equivalent of southern West Virginia). No incumbent lives here and there will either be a Poe-Brady, Poe-Weber or Weber-Olson matchup in the Houston area. Even though more of his old district is here, Poe’s base is in Harris County and I think Weber runs here. He should be safe.

2008 Election Results: 37.1 Obama, 62.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 46.2% Poe, 27.4% Brady, 11.2% (Gene) Green, 10.6% Olson, 4.6% Paul

10^th District Michael McCaul R-Austin, Lloyd Doggett D-Austin

Comments: The tenth is the Austin district. Austin is the state capital and when you combine the UT presence with the restaurant and live music culture, it’s probably the party capital of Texas. It’s also the most democratic part of Texas. It also slightly wins the battle of the most democratic district in Texas (69.2% Obama vs. 68.7% in the 18^th) but this is more impressive since the tenth is 47% white while the 18^th is only 23% white. I calculated that Obama won about 63% of the white vote here so the tenth is really the only white liberal district in Texas. Two incumbents live here but there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that McCaul runs here. It’s all Lloyd Doggett’s district. Now on his eleventh term, Doggett has reached veteran status and is now No 7 on Ways and Means. There’s a possibility he stays in office until he’s 80 like Jake Pickle did but I also think he might retire pretty soon. Maybe someone like Mark Strama could run here? Safe D.

2008 Election Results: 69.2 Obama, 30.8 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 39.7% McCaul, 36.7% Doggett, 20.3% Smith, 3.3% Carter

11^th District Roger Williams R-Burleson

Comments: The 11th is another Central Texas district which includes Waco, where Baylor University is, the Temple/Killeen/Fort Hood area and the outskirts of the DFW metroplex. To a layperson, this looks like a super conservative/republican district and you would be correct to say that. Nonetheless, the district was, until 2010, represented by a democrat. The district’s congressman, Chet Edwards was a member of the house appropriations committee and was a somewhat conservative democrat who voted against the ACA. Nonetheless, he never won by a lot and was eventually going to run out of luck, which is what happened in 2010 (I’m still surprised he lost by as much as he did though). Bill Flores, the guy who unseated Edwards, doesn’t live here, but I think he runs against Roger Williams here in a primary. Safe R either way.

2008 Election Results: 32.4 Obama, 67.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 59.5% Flores, 26.5% Carter, 14% Barton

13^th District No Incumbent

Comments: This district is anchored by the small cities of Denton, McKinney, Gainesville, Sherman and Denison. Until maybe twenty years ago or so, Denton and McKinney were more like Gainesville or Denison. But since then the DFW sprawl has emerged in full force. I’d guess that this is the fastest growing district in the country. No incumbent lives here but I would think Burgess would run here. Safe R either way.

2008 Election Results: 34.7 Obama, 65.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 42.3% Burgess, 30.4% Hall, 25.6% Johnson, 1.7% Thornberry

14^th District Blake Farenthold R-Corpus Christi

Comments: I would call the fourteenth the Central Gulf Coast district. The district is sort of the crossroads of Texas between South Texas, the Houston area and Central Texas. The district is 48 percent Hispanic but when you consider they are a lot lower as a % of the electorate and that whites here are more republican than the democrats are Hispanic, you have a fairly republican seat. The incumbent here, Blake Farenthold, shouldn’t have any problems winning reelection.

2008 Election Results: 39.5 Obama, 60.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 33% Farenthold, 32.6% Paul, 15.7% Hinojosa, 8% Olson, 6.7% Doggett, 3.1% Cuellar, 0.9% Flores

15^th District Filemon Vela D-Brownsville, Henry Cuellar D-Laredo

Comments: The fifteenth is south Texas and is more like Mexico than the rest of the state. It’s the most Hispanic district in the country (88%), the lowest turnout (18-19% of the district voted in 2008) and also the youngest (a third of the district’s population is under 18). This would have been a three-person primary but with Hinojosa retiring it will probably be a Vela-Cuellar matchup (interestingly enough it’s pronounced Kway-are not Quell-ur like I had thought). Most people would think Hispanic pols are more like Raul Grijalva or Luis Gutierrez – but plenty of them are somewhat conservative democrats like Cuellar and Vela are like. There’s not much of a difference between the two of them so it’s hard to know who would win out in a primary matchup. I’d bet on Cuellar since he’s been in office longer but it could go either way in this safe dem district.

2008 Election Results: 67 Obama, 33 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 41.2% Hinojosa, 30.5% Cuellar, 28.3% Farenthold

16^th District Beto O’Rourke D-El Paso, Mike Conaway R-Midland

Comments: This is the Texas you see in the movies. Geographically, much of the district is the Wild West though most of the population is in El Paso, Midland or Odessa. El Paso is a border town that came of age during the cold war with the aerospace business. Midland and Odessa are oil towns and probably has the most republican white vote in the country. The district is fairly polarized – in the precincts where Hispanics are more than 75% of the population (45% of the electorate) – Obama got 71%. In the remaining precincts, McCain won 65%. Two incumbents live here but I think Conaway would run in the 16^th. That leaves Beto O’Rourke who in 2012 did the unthinkable – a white person unseating a Hispanic incumbent in a Hispanic majority district. Nonetheless, O’Rourke has said he will only serve three terms so both parties in this case would be looking for someone to run – Likely D with O’Rourke, Lean D without.

2008 Election Results: 51.4 Obama 48.6 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 60.3% Reyes, 31.8% Conaway, 7.6% Canseco, 0.3% Neugebauer

17^th District No Incumbent

Comments: This part of Texas has seen the worst decline for the democrats. The main reason is that much of the district hasn’t seen any influx of outsiders and unlike far West Texas, there isn’t that much of a Hispanic population (the district is still 74% white). Until 2004, this was Charlie Stenholm’s district, who, had he not been drawn out of office, would have become chair of the house agriculture committee in 2006. But like all of Tom Delay’s targets (except for Martin Frost), they all would have lost eventually. No incumbent lives here – maybe Craig Estes would run here? Safe R.

2008 Election Results: 25.7 Obama, 74.3 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 37.2% Granger, 33.3% Thornberry, 23.9% Neugebauer, 4% Conaway, 1.4% Burgess, 0.1% Edwards, 0.1% Barton

19^th District Mac Thornberry R-Clarendon

Comments: The nineteenth is far west Texas and the panhandle. Both the 19^th and the 16^th districts sort of take in the “Wild West” parts of Texas. Accordingly, the southern culture isn’t as strong – so this part of Texas has been republican for a longer period of time. This would have been a Thornberry vs. Neugebauer matchup but with Neugebauer retiring, its all Thornberry’s. He should be safe in both March and November.

2008 Election Results: 25.1 Obama, 74.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 53.4% Neugebauer, 44.5% Thornberry, 2.1% Conaway

20^th District Joaquin Castro D-San Antonio

Comments: This is the San Antonio district. In many ways, San Antonio (with the Alamo and river walk) is the capital of Latino America the same way as Atlanta or Detroit is for blacks. For fifty years, the district was represented by the Gonzalez family and it seems like the Castro’s are now replacing the Gonzalez’ as the first family of San Antonio politics. Joaquin Castro was a member of the state legislature for a few terms before being elected to congress in 2012 and his twin brother was mayor and later HUD secretary. Having only been 38 when first elected, Joaquin Castro should be key legislative player in future democratic house majorities. He should be fairly safe.

2008 Election Results: 58.1 Obama, 41.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 41.6% Gonzalez, 41% Smith, 17.4% Canseco

21^st District No Incumbent

Comments: If you look at an aerial map of Texas, you’ll see that I-35 (formerly US 81) is sort of the dividing line between the coastal plains and the dry sagebrush country. The dividing line it runs along is called the Balcones Escarpment. This escarpment is also sort of the eastern boundary of the district. Because of the lack of good soil, most of the farmers in this neck of the woods are ranchers. The other natural resource of course is oil. There are about three or four major components to the district – San Angelo, the Austin exurbs, Fort Hood and Hill Country. No incumbent lives here but there’s a possibility that John Carter and Mike Conaway would run here. Conaway represents components one and four while Carter represents components two and three. But there’s a possibility that Carter would retire so Conaway might just run here. Safe R either way.

2008 Election Results: 34.1 Obama, 65.9 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 44.2% Conaway, 39% Carter, 10.9% Smith, 4.1% Doggett, 1.5% Neugebauer

22^nd District Randy Weber R-Pearland

Comments: There are two components to the 22^nd – industrial shipping/oil areas like Freeport, Lake Jackson and Galveston. The second is the fast-growing Houston exurbs in places like Pearland, League City (where Surman is from), Clear Lake, and Friendswood. In between is a lot of marshland. As I mentioned in one of the other district write-ups – there is going to be a Houston area republican double bunk. The question then is who – will Brady face off against Poe, will Poe face off against Weber or will Weber face off against Olson. Although Randy Weber (whose name sounds like that Ruby ridge guy) lives here and Olson lives in the 22^nd, Olson is put in a hostile district so he’ll probably run here. It’s possible that Weber runs in the ninth and Olson runs here but whatever happens, it’s a safe R seat.

2008 Election Results: 39.8 Obama, 60.2 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 53.1% Olson, 45.6% Paul, 1.3% (Al) Green

23^rd District Will Hurd R-San Antonio

Comments: If you look at a map of Texas, the border shifts south rather dramatically starting in Val Verde County. So as a result, the district heads west from San Antonio to the border. Although the district is 58 percent Hispanic, the district probably has a 55% white electorate – and because Hispanics here are probably 69-70% dem and whites are more like 77-78% repub – then you have an R+8 or so district. This is freshman Will Hurd’s seat. In his current seat, he probably has a good chance of losing in 2016 – but in this seat he would be pretty safe.

2008 Election Results: 45.6 Obama, 54.4 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 51.3% Canseco, 19.7% Smith, 19.1% Gonzalez, 9.5% Cuellar, 0.4% Hinojosa

27^th District Lamar Smith R-San Antonio

Comments: This district is a collection of fast growing exurbs in between San Antonio and Austin. The metro areas may eventually meld together to create sort of a “centroplex” (based off the DFW being known as the metroplex and SA and Austin being in central Texas). Although a lot of the seat is area he’s never represented before, I think Lamar Smith would run here and he would be safe although he might retire soon though.

2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain

112^th congress percentages: 44% Doggett, 31.1% Smith, 19.1% Cuellar, 5.6% Canseco, 0.2% Gonzalez

Conclusions

I calculated that the median PVI of as district is something like R+1 or R+1.5. So the PVI is less than it is now but it still exists to some extent. One of the interesting things I did  was to look at the range of districts. I drew 427 districts that had partisan information so the idea would be to look at the 214 districts with the least distance between them. So in the area from 43.4% Obama to 59.6% Obama is about half the districts. To the right of the bell curve is 88 districts and to the left is 123 districts. So having more districts to the left of the bell curve has something to do with it. I might also add that republicans are now more over-concentrated than democrats probably were in the 70s and 80s. Now what I mean is that there are probably more R+20 districts now than there were D+20 districts 30-40 years ago. So its possible that the republican areas got more republican but it was masked by the dem areas getting way more democratic. Another thing is that things are more obvious now without the likes of a Chet Edwards or Gene Taylor to pad there majority. If you look at the 218 most dem leaning districts over time, it would be interesting to see how many of those seats the dems have historically had. Like I calculated that in 1971, they only held like 150 of them which meant that 40% of the caucus was in seats more than R+2.

Here are the top ten of each district

Whitest Districts

KY-5 96.2

ME-2 95.5

NH-2 94.9

OH-6 94.3

OH-18 94.3

VT-AL 94.3

PA-9 94.1

MO-9 93.4

PA-5 93.4

ME-1 93.3

Blacks+Hispanics
CA-27 91.1

TX-15 89.4

IL-1 86.6

NY-12 86.2

FL-26 82.5

FL-27 80.8

FL-25 79.2

NY 13 75.6

TX-16 75

MD 4 74.7

Blacks

IL-1 71.6

TN-9 62.7

MI-14 60.8

GA-13 59.9

MD 4 55.9

MD 7 53.8

OH-11 52.7

IL-2 52.6

DC-AL 50

PA-1 49

Hispanics

TX-15 88.9

FL-26 80

CA-27 75.2
TX-16

FL-27 70.2
TX-20 64.8

TX-23 58.7

CA-35 58.5

CA-28 57.2

NY-12 55.4

Asians

HI-1 50.2

HI-2 43.4
CA-11 34.8

CA-9 32.9
CA-12 30.9
CA-6 29.4

NY-5 28.5

CA-28 27.8

CA-10 27.3

CA-33 26.5

Natives

AZ-1 20.5

NM-3 19.2

OK-3 15.6

OK-2 10.3

AK-AL 14.4

NC-7 8.7

SD-AL 8.5

MT-2 7

OK-1 6.1
ND-AL 5.3

OK-4 5.3

Other
HI-2 19.6
HI-1 19.5

OK-3 6.7

AK-AL 6.5

OK-2 6.2

WA-10 6.1

NY- 6 5.4

CA-3 4.8

OK-1 4.6

WA-9 4.6

VAP (% over 18)

Highest
CA-6 88.8%

NY 11 88%

IL 7 84.7%

WA-7 84.3%

MA-8 83.4%

DC-AL 83.2%

FL-19 82.5%

NY-10 82.5%

CA-42 82.4%

FL-16 82.3%

Lowest
CA-30 70.2%

TX-24 70.1%

UT-2 70%

CA-20 69.9%

CA-37 69.8%
CA-35 69.6%
CA-19 69.5%

UT-1 69%

UT-3 66.7%

TX-15 66.5%
VAP (Whites)

Highest

CA-6 91.8%

DC-AL 91.6%

IL-7 91.3%

HI-2 90%
NY-11 89%

CA-27 88.9%

MA-8 88.8%

NY-12 88.7%

CA-26 88.6%

CA-43 88.5%

Lowest

MO-9 75.3%

FL-26 75.3%

IL-11 75%

TX-13 74.9%

FL-27 74.8%

MN-6 73.6%

ID-2 73.2%

NY-15 73.2%

UT-2 72.9%

UT-1 70.7%

UT-3 68%

Turnout (% of the population that voted)
Highest

MN-3 58.5%

MO-2 57.1%

WI-9 57.1%

MI-12 56.8%

MN-5 56.1%

CO-8 56%

OH-11 55.8%

PA-7 55.6%

PA-13 55.5%

ME-1 55.1%

MN-2 55.1%

Lowest

NY-9 27.7%
TX-18 27.4%
CA-23 27.2%

CA-19 26.9%

CA-20 26.3%

NY-7 25.8%

TX-16 25.1%
CA-35 24.2%

CA-27 19.5%

TX-15 18.6%

Most Dem Districts

PA-1 86.6% Obama
CA-6 86.8 Obama

MD-4 88 Obama

NY-6 88.2 Obama

NY-1088.8 Obama

CA-27 89.8

CA-8 90.7 Obama

DC-AL 93.4 Obama

NY-12 95.1 Obama

IL-1 96.6 Obama

Most Repub Districts

UT-3 77.4 McCain

GA-9 76.1 McCain
TX-19 74.9 McCain

TX-19 74.3 McCain

GA-7 73.5 McCain

TX-2 71.6 McCain

TN-1 70.9 McCain

AL-4 70.3 McCain

OK-4 69.6 McCain

NE-3 69.5 McCain

Concentrations of Ethnic Groups

Whites half live in 173 congressional districts

Blacks half live in 73 congressional districts

Hispanics – half live in 58 congressional districts
Asians – half live in 53 congressional districts

Native Americans – half live in 23 congressional districts

Preface:

This is my second round of redistricting. SonoftheSouth has criticized my work for it splitting up metro areas in the small states though this is less of a factor in the bigger states. In any event, I don’t want to rehash the basic procedure if I’m doing – if you missed part I its here: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2015/11/17/rethinking-redistricting-part-i-the-small-states/.

I will say however that I would like the topic to be more along the lines of “how many seats do you think each party would win” or “what do homeless incumbents do in this situation” or “who wins this head to head matchup” (which is definitely a topic in California). I’m not terribly familiar with state level politics so if you know of any legislator or county commissioner who would run in an open seat – let me know. What I don’t want is for the thread to devolve into “your procedure is illegitimate” because it involves unwinnable semantics-heavy arguments.

California

Northern California

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the northeastern part of California and is the part of the state that most resembles the intermountain rural west (the seat is 76% white, whitest in the state). Guns are probably a big deal here and there’s a general antipathy toward the environmentalists. I would call this the Redwood district. No incumbent lives here but Doug LaMalfa lives just outside the district and would run here. He should be safe ceterus paribus.
2008 Election Results: 45.1 Obama, 54.9 McCain

2nd District Doug LaMalfa R-Richvale

Comments: The 2nd district is the far northern coast. It’s a rural district and there’s a lot of Bay Area expats and a lot of pot farms here. The district does shift eastward to take in more conservative areas (in fact it takes in LaMalfa’s home), which shifts the PVI downward, but a dem should win this seat barring a catastrophic year (and no way LaMalfa runs here). Not sure who the dems run here though. Thompson has represented this area before, but he doesn’t live here and might want to run in the safer 4th.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain

3rd District Doris Matsui D-Sacramento

Comments: The 3rd district is the Sacramento district. Sacramento has always been different from the rest of the San Joaquin Valley. As opposed to the usual Scoop Jackson type dems you find in much of the SJV, the dems here are more liberal. Sacramento is the part of the state whose politics have been unchanged for decades. The congresswoman is Doris Matsui, who along with her late husband, have represented the seat for 36 years. Matsui is in her early 70s now and there’s a definite possibility that she would retire to make room for Ami Bera, who is left without a district. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.7 Obama, 32.3 McCain

4th District Mike Thompson D-St Helena, John Garamendi D-Walnut Grove

Comments: The 4th lies between the bay area and Sacramento. There are three main components – Napa County, known for its vineyards; Solano County which is more blue collar and home to the small cities of Vallejo and Fairfield, and Davis County, home to UC-Davis (which I’ve heard is pretty far left). This district has been voting dem for a long time as you can see in this map: http://www.geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/California-1956-Presidential-Election.png, so there’s no doubt what party will win it. The question is who – if Garamendi retires (he’s 70) there’s a good chance Thompson runs here. If he doesn’t, there’s still a good chance Thompson runs here and its likely that either way, Garamendi’s career may be done. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 65.8 Obama, 34.2 McCain
5th District Jared Huffman D-San Rafael

Comments: The 5th is the Marin-Sonoma district. It takes in geographically half of Sonoma county but most of the population (cities of Santa Rosa and Petaluma) of the county. Sonoma county is somewhat different than Marin as its more its own metro area and similar to Napa Valley (lots of vineyards). The district probably has one of the most dem white populations in the country and Huffman is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: 77.8 Obama, 22.2 McCain

Bay Area

6th District (Teal) Nancy Pelosi D-San Francisco
Comments: The 6th is most of San Francisco. SF is the only part of the state with a large “great wave” population of immigrants (Irish and Italian). So it was always more of a northeastern city (and like New York it is a big financial center being the hq of wells fargo). The political battle lines here are between liberal (Feinstein or Newsom) and far left (Mirkarimi or someone like that). Pelosi probably falls somewhere between that. Being 75 years old, I would think Pelosi hangs it up by 2022, especially since a lot of her allies (Waxman, Miller, Markey) have left the house. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 86.8 Obama, 13.2 McCain

7th District (Dark Gray) Mark DeSaulnier D-Concord
Comments: This is the Contra Costa district. Contra Costa has somewhat of a split personality between the labor-dem maritime areas and the more posh suburban areas. For 40 years, this was represented by George Miller, who fell more in the former category and chaired the Ed&Labor committee. Mark DeSaulnier will probably be just as liberal as Miller but will probably never chair anything given his age (63).
2008 Election Results: 72.2 Obama, 27.8 McCain

8th District (Slate Blue) Barbara Lee D-Oakland
Comments: This is probably the most radical left-wing district in the country. Oakland (which is like half the district) was once a maritime city but in the 1960s due to white flight and what not became the center of the Black Panther movement. To the north is Berkeley which until the 1960s was more of an elite place where the people too rich to live in Oakland lived but became synonymous with campus left-wing agitation. It should be no coincidence that the district has had two relatively radical members of congress over the past 45 years – Ron Dellums and Barbara Lee. Lee actually was reportedly a former black panther, but her left-wing views are no disqualification for this safe seat.
2008 Election Results: 90.7 Obama, 9.3 McCain
9th (Cyan) District Eric Swalwell D-Dublin
Comments: Not all of the East Bay across from San Francisco is a hotbed of political radicalism, Berkeley-style. The suburban areas south of Oakland – Hayward, Castro Valley – are something like outposts of Middle America on San Francisco Bay. They are places where the people who work in the East Bay’s factories live in comfortable, well-tended neighborhoods. These suburbs, and some areas east of the mountains which are some of the wealthiest in the bay area, form the bulk of California’s 9th congressional district. That being said, the congressman here for forty years was Pete Stark who was almost as liberal as Ron Dellums or Barbara Lee. Yet he wasn’t a “let’s all be friends” type of lefty but more of the street-brawler type. Dating back to the 1980s (scroll down to the bottom of this link: http://articles.latimes.com/1986-12-08/news/mn-1861_1_jim-wright) Stark always had something of a propensity for talking crap to other members of congress. Yet he seldom had any trouble in primaries until 2012 when Eric Swalwell, a 31 year old lawyer, ran against him. Many wondered how Stark would act when faced with his first challenge in a long time and Stark really went off the deep end. Had he been more courteous, Stark probably would have won, but he was too arrogant. Of the California delegation, Swalwell has a good chance to be a lifer and is clearly safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 70.8, McCain 29.2

10th (Deep Pink) District Zoe Lofgren D-San Jose, Mike Honda D-San Jose
Comments: This is the heart of San Jose, which was once an farm-to-market town for the nearby vineyards and fruit orchards and in the 1950s became a hotbed of the military industrial complex. It also has the largest Hispanic population of any bay area district (35%). That description sounds a lot like a southern California district, but this district has never had the politics that Southern California once had. As a matter of fact the district has had two liberal congresscritters over the last two 52 years. Both were on the house judiciary committee and both were pretty liberal (Don Edwards recently died at 100 and there’s probably an fbi file on him for his leftist activities). Lofgren is ranking member on the immigration subcommittee and may eventually chair the whole committee. Mike Honda lives here but he probably retires given his age. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.3 Obama, 28.7 McCain

11th (Chartreuse) District Jackie Speier D-Hillsborough
Comments: Almost 75% of the district is in Hillsborough County and the SF portion contains Candlestick Park and SF State (where Tom Lantos was once a professor). The San Mateo portion contains San Francisco’s airport. I would think that Pelosi’s district would be the most asian of any California district, but this is actually the most asian district in CA (nearly 35%). The person representing this district is Jackie Speier, whose career actually goes back before Lantos. She was a staffer for Leo Ryan who was executed by a cult, shortly after winning reelection in 1978. She ran for the seat in a 1979 special election, but lost in the primary. The seat went to a republican and then was unseated by Lantos in 1980 (one of only three R incumbents to lose that year). Lantos was congressman for 27 years and chaired foreign affairs his last year in office. After he died in 2008, Speier, who by that time had been in the state legislature for many years, finally won the seat. But having been elected at 58 rather than 29, she will likely never chair a committee. Safe D regardless.
2008 Election Results: 75.8 Obama, 24.2 McCain

12th District (Cornflower Blue)Anna Eshoo D-Atherton
Comments: The 12th is the Silicon Valley district, containing a lot of corporate headquarters for computer companies and also contains Stanford University. There are still remnants of the Military Industrial Complex as there’s still a Lockheed plant in Sunnyvale. In any event, this is one of the wealthiest districts in the country. The district does have something of a liberal republican tradition, but Eshoo has represented this seat for 23 years and has always won easily. She may retire soon though. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 73.8 Obama, 26.2 McCain

Central California

13th District No Incumbent

Comments: This seat contains the foothill areas in the Santa Clara Valley, Santa Cruz, and the agricultural areas of Watsonville, Gilroy, Morgan Hill, Hollister and Salinas. The foothill areas are people with money, Santa Cruz is full of liberal counterculture types and the rest of the district is Grapes of Wrath country. This would have been Sam Farr’s seat, but he retired. Leon Panetta’s son will probably run here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.5 Obama, 28.5 McCain

14th District Tom McClintock R-Roseville

Comments: This is the northern Sacramento suburbs along I-80. This district was probably dem leaning decades ago but then again there weren’t many people living there then. The population of this district has been growing pretty quickly since the 1970s and some of them are conservative expats from areas closer to the ocean. McClintock himself is from Ventura county. McClintock is a paulite but the district is safe enough that he should be fine. Likely bordering on safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.8 Obama, 53.2 McCain

15th District Ami Bera D-Elk Grove

Comments: The 15th is the motherlode country and also contains exurban parts of San Joaquin and Sacramento counties. Bera should hope Matsui retires so he can run in her seat because he is absolutely screwed here.
2008 Election Results: 45.4 Obama, 54.6 McCain

16th District Jerry McNerney D-Livermore

Comments: 55% of this district is in the eastern part of Alameda and Contra Costa counties which is the least dem part of the entire bay area (Bay Area portion was 63% Obama), the other 45% is in San Joaquin County which is the most dem area (SJ portion went 62% Obama) of the valley south of Sacramento. This district would probably have been winnable for the republicans until the early-to-mid 2000s. Jerry McNerney, the district’s congressman, has a background in math/science (worked in alternative energy industry and has phd in math) and his hometown of Livermore actually has an atomic energy plant. He has never won by solid margins though this is the most dem district he’s ever represented. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 63 Obama, 37 McCain

17th District Jeff Denham R-Atwater

Comments: The 17th is located between Fresno and Stockton containing Modesto, Madera and Merced with Modesto being the biggest of them. This is an agricultural/small city district that has voted for dems before, the most well known of them being Gary Condit (rep from 1989-2003). But since he was pretty conservative for a California democrat, most dems wouldn’t be able to recreate his success. The current incumbent is Jeff Denham, who is a mainstream republican. The district is 46% Hispanic but that isn’t the percentage of the electorate they are. I’d rate this seat Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.5 Obama, 50.5 McCain

18th District no incumbent

Comments: This is a sleepy seaside district. I think of this song when writing about this district: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuU12Ye9F8. The district is pretty divided, and not just by Rs and Ds. The dems are divided between high turnout retirees in the Pacific Grove area and the hispanic population in places like Santa Maria. The Monterrey County portion skews the district as it is 27% of the population and voted 68% for Obama. The rest of the district went for Obama by less than a 1000 votes. I’m not sure of who the pols are here but I think Maldonado is from here. Tossup.
2008 Election Results: 55 Obama, 45 McCain
19th District David Valadao R-Hanford, Jim Costa D-Fresno

Comments: This is the most urban seat in the valley south of Sacramento. The main part of the seat is Fresno but it also contains the cities of Visalia and Hanford. This part of the state is more diverse than it gets credit for (it’s not just okies and Mexicans) – there is also a relatively large population of Armenians and Punjabis. The district is a double bunk between an underperforming incumbent (Costa) and an over performing incumbent (Valadao). The seat would probably go to Valadao unless it’s a really bad year for republicans.
2008 Election Results: 49.7 Obama, 50.3 McCain

20th District Kevin McCarthy R-Bakersfield, Devin Nunes R-Tulare

Comments: At a cursory glance, this looks like a Sierra Nevada/Death Valley district, but much of the population is in the southern end of the seat in Kern County. The southern Valley is the most conservative part of the SJV and was the first part of the valley to go republican. This is the second Valley double bunk and McCarthy, who still could be a future speaker, would be facing up against Devin Nunes who could eventually chair Ways and Means. Being the most republican seat in the state, it is obviously safe.
2008 Election Results: Obama 42.2, McCain 57.8

21st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 21st contains the twin cities of Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The dynamic here is similar to Monterey County where you have both old rich white high turnout dems and young poor Hispanic low turnout dems. For 18 years this was represented by the Capps family. At 77, Capps probably didn’t want to spend the rest of her life waiting to be in the majority (and if the dems were to take control, she probably wouldn’t be committee chair). It was thought that Capps’ daughter would run here but the dems seem to have chosen mayor Helen Schneider as there candidate. It’s almost as safe as the 2000s 23rd.
2008 Election Results: Obama 64.5, McCain 35.5

22nd District Julia Brownley D-Westlake Village

Comments: Although the San Fernando Valley district is really the 23rd, the demographics of the 23rd are more comparable to what the Valley looked like 30 years ago. It doesn’t contain any high poverty areas like the 23rd and is pretty wealthy. The area in the LA county portion of the district reads like a who’s who of ritzy places to live – Malibu, Bel-Air, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Woodland Hills. The district is pretty divided – half the district is in the Ventura county portion where Obama won by 283 votes, while Obama won the LA county portion by nearly 30. What explains the difference? My guess is that the Ventura portion has less people who work in the entertainment biz, less jews and more parents with kids in the house (see CA 38). The incumbent is Julia Brownley, and this should be a Lean D district.
2008 Election Results: 57.8 Obama, 42.2 McCain

LA

23rd District (Aquamarine) Tony Cardenas D-Los Angeles Brad Sherman D-Sherman Oaks
Comments: This is the San Fernando Valley district. The Valley was basically all orange groves until the 1950s when it was more or less built overnight. Historically the partisan makeup was
1) liberal jewish dems in the southern part of the seat who worked in the entertainment biz
2) semi-loyal working class dems
3) wealthy republicans in Porter Ranch, Granada Hills, Reseda
The 1st demographic is still in the district but the 2nd and 3rd demographics have mostly gone away. Hispanics have moved into the areas of category 2 and the areas in category 3 can’t be counted on to go republican (despite the fact that the demos are largely the same). I’m not sure what happens to Brad Sherman but he could hypothetically run here against Cardenas. Although the district is 55% Hispanic, that’s nowhere near there percentage of the electorate and Sherman might have a decent shot here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 71.1 Obama, 28.9 McCain

24th District (Indigo) Adam Schiff D-Burbank
Comments: When I think of this district I think of old money, the rose bowl, panda express and van halen. This district was republican up until 2000, when Adam Schiff unseated James Rogan, presumably for supporting the impeachment of Clinton. That said, the fact that Rogan never got above 51% and lost by nine to Schiff means he may have lost anyways (and if not in 2000, he certainly would have been gone by 2006). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 67.8 Obama, 32.2 McCain

25th District (PaleVioletRed) No Incumbent
Comments: The district is sort of bisected by Ballona Creek and culturally is sort of a dividing line. North of it is Santa Monica, Holmby Hills, the UCLA campus, Venice, Marina Del Rey. Those areas have a large bohemian population and a lot of people in the film business. To the south, its less showbiz-y and more defense industry oriented (at least historically). The southern part of the district also contains LAX, Culver City (which was historically jewish, not so sure now) and east of LaCienega, there is a decent sized black population. No incumbent lives here and even though he hasn’t represented this area before, its possible Sherman could carpetbag here. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 81.5 Obama, 18.5 McCain

26th District (Gray) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Hollywood district and definitely the most fashionable part of LA, – Hollywood Bowl, most of the film studios, the Whisky a-go-go, the miracle mile and sunset strip and the mansions of Beverly Hills. This would have been Henry Waxman’s district but he retired in 2014. I’m not sure who would run here but it would probably be a democrat with views similar to Waxman.
2008 Election Results: 79.5 Obama, 20.5 McCain
27th District (Spring Green) Xavier Becerra D-Los Angeles, Maxine Waters D-Los Angeles, LR Allard D-Los Angeles, Karen Bass D-Los Angeles
Comments: The seat is south central LA, the gateway cities (Huntington Park, southgate), downtown and east LA/boyle heights. Everyone is familiar with the demographic changes in California from white to Hispanic. But this area has gone from mostly black to Hispanic. It may have actually have been majority black as late as 1980. But the district is the most Hispanic district in the state (75%). The hispanics living here are some of the poorest of the California hispanics and I estimated that Obama won 87% of the Hispanic vote here. Three other incumbents live here but they’re all older and wouldn’t win a primary against Becerra. My guess is that they all retire and Becerra continues serving in congress and will eventually be promoted to congressional leadership. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 89.8 Obama, 10.2 McCain

28th District (Plum) Judy Chu D-Monterey Park, Grace Napolitano D-West Covina
Comments: The 28th district is the San Gabriel Valley and the district is bisected by the San Gabriel River. As a rule of thumb the closer you get to the mountains the nicer the real estate is and the flatter the topography, the more working class it gets. The district is 57% Hispanic but also has a large (28%) asian population, the largest asian population of any southern California district. Both Napolitano and Chu live here but I think Napolitano retires since she’s almost eighty. Chu is an unabashed lefty but it’s also a safe dem district.
2008 Election Results: 67.4 Obama, 32.6 McCain

29th District (Dark Sea Green) Ted Lieu D-Torrance
Comments: This is the South Bay district. The main industries here are defense (isn’t there some military thing in El Segundo) and shipping (San Pedro), oil and cars (Toyota is HQ in Torrance). Much of the district is white and Asians who live in the tony beachside communities. The whites here aren’t that republican but they probably vote more like Orange County than West LA. The areas further inland with more black and Hispanic populations skew the district to the dems. This district was winnable for republicans probably until the 2000s as Jane Harman had many tough elections in the 90s and only stopped once Palos Verdes was removed. The incumbent is Ted Lieu who, from what I know, is a garden variety liberal dem who occasionally breaks with his party on issues like Affirmative Action. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 60.6 Obama, 39.4 McCain

Greater Southern California

30th District Steve Knight R-Palmdale

Comments: The district is a mix between tattooed tweekers, illegals, gangbanger expats from LA (I’ve heard Palmdale called “Palmpton), religious fanatics and the military (George and Edwards AFB). The one area that votes differently is Santa Clarita which is not in the desert and more tony (similar to somewhere like Simi Valley). Decades ago the district might have been as high as R+15 but the Hispanic population has lowered the PVI. Steve Knight should be safe for the time being
2008 Election Results: 49.2 Obama, 50.8 McCain

31st District Linda Sanchez D-Lakewood, Alan Lowenthal D-Long Beach

Comments: The 31st is dominated by the city of Long Beach. Long Beach at one time had an identity separate from LA and was settled by people from the plains states (there used to be an Iowa picnic or something like that). After WWII it became more part of Greater Southern California as the areas between it and LA were swallowed up. Two incumbents live here and my guess is that Lowenthal retires since he has less seniority and is a lot older than Sanchez. In any event both are pretty liberal and this is a safe D seat.
2008 election Results: 72.7 Obama, 27.3 McCain

32nd District No Incumbent

Comments: The seat is mainly 1950s-era suburbs along I-5 starting from Montebello, to a point near Disneyland. The most well known city is Whittier which was once a small town settled by Quakers and has its own university (Whittier college). The city is well known as the hometown of Richard Nixon who was a Whittier alum and was elected to congress from Whittier in 1946 (and again in 1948 before going to the senate). This is another seat that may have been won by republicans as late as the early 2000s. I’m not sure who runs here with it being an open seat. Maybe Golden Statesman could run here. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.4 Obama, 41.6 McCain

33rd District Dana Rohrabacher R-Huntington Beach

Comments: The 33rd is the oldest part of Orange County – Garden Grove, Huntington Beach and much of Anaheim (including Disneyland). Population wise, the district is evenly divided between whites, Hispanics and Asians – but the district probably has a majority white electorate. The Asians here tend to be rather conservative compared to elsewhere in the state. Dana Rohrabacher has represented this area for a long time and is something of an idiosyncratic conservative. He should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain

34th District Norma Torres D-Pomona

Comments: The 34th is a less rich version of the 24th. There are some wealthy areas in the foothills but they aren’t as wealthy compared to Pasadena and there is more less wealthy areas in the district (Pomona and parts of Ontario) to skew the median income downwards. Had he not retired in 2012, this would have been David Dreier’s district but the incumbent living here now is Norma Torres. I have no idea what Torres’ views are but if she’s a standard teacher union hack, she might have trouble here. Tilt/Lean D
2008 Election Results: 56 Obama, 44 McCain

35th District Mark Takano D-Riverside

Comments: The 35th is the heart of the Inland Empire. Decades ago, Riverside and San Bernardino were kind of a separate metro area surrounded by orange groves and were classic American Graffiti type places with drag races and drive-ins, judging by what Joan Didion wrote about this area in 1966: http://www.carljay.com/whatsnew/nothing_left.htm. The culture of this area has always been working class and the district has always been dem, even when the district was majority white. Mark Takano is the incumbent here and is pretty much an unabashed lefty. Since Pete Aguilar is left without a district, he may run here and hopefully he wins since he has more lifer potential than Takano (Aguilar is 36 and Takano is 54). Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 62.7 Obama, 37.3 McCain

36th District Pete Aguilar D-Redlands, Paul Cook R-Yucca Valley, Raul Ruiz D-Palm Desert

Comments: The 36th district has similar demographics to the 30th but the areas on the wealthy end are wealthier (Palm Desert, Indian Wells) and there’s more stuff to do (Big Bear, Palm Springs). Since the district is “only” R+5 and the only majority white (52%) district in the inland empire, it must have the largest white lefty concentration in the IE. Paul Cook is the incumbent here and given his age may leave office before 2022. Raul Ruiz is basically screwed as his district is dismembered and would probably have an eye on a statewide race. The district should go republican but I’m not sure who replaces Cook when he retires – maybe Tim Donnelly. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 48 Obama, 52 McCain

37th District Ken Calvert R-Corona

Comments: The era of California’s population growing at breakneck speed is mostly a thing of the past but the 37th district is where that still is happening – the district grew 53% from 2000-2010. It is kind of a diamond shaped district with major population centers in each end (Corona, MoVal, and Murrieta). In between those areas, there is still orange grove land. The incumbent is Ken Calvert who is now on his twelfth term. He would probably be on his seventeenth term if he hadn’t narrowly lost a primary in 1982. Calvert has normally won by large margins, though he did have a DGLB incident early in his career but it was timed perfectly as it was before the 94 elections. He should continue to win reelection unless the district trends more dem. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 49.1 Obama, 50.9 McCain
38th District Ed Royce R-Fullerton

Comments: This area is sort of the petit bourgeoisie of Orange County, somewhat socon, and more people with kids in the house than in the neighboring 39th. So as a result you have a fairly conservative seat. This was the district that sent Bill Dannemeyer to congress, who had pretty medieval views on gays. Since then, the district’s congressman has been Ed Royce. Royce is just as conservative, but he tends to keep a low profile. He’s always been pretty safe and this is the most R district he’s ever represented. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 46.2 Obama, 53.8 McCain
39th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the part of Orange County that people probably think of when they think of OC. Most of the fashionable beachfront communities are in this district such as Newport and Laguna Beach. If you’re visiting OC and flying into John Wayne, you may never leave this district. Of all the OC-based districts, Obama probably did the best with whites here (around 46%) as there is definitely a bohemian presence here. It also contains Irvine which from what I know is kind of the SoCal equivalent of the research triangle and “new democrat” territory. But what makes the district winnable for dems is the inclusion of about half of Santa Ana which is almost all-Hispanic and usually 60+% dem. The district in 2008 had around an EVEN/D+1 PVI but Meg Whitman won about 56-57% of the vote here in 2010, so people split there tickets. No incumbent lives here but Mimi Walters would run here. I’d rate this tilt/Lean R to begin with.
2008 Election Results: 54.3 Obama, 45.7 McCain

40th District Mimi Walters R-Laguna Niguel; Darrell Issa R-Vista

Comments: The 40th is the trans SD-OC district and a shrunken version of the 90s 48th district. The population here is less dense than in the LA basin because the land is less flat. I’ve heard this part of Southern California called “masterplanistan”. This area was settled about thirty years after the parts of OC closer to LA. You can kind of tell by the names of the community or subdivision: “the x at y point” and the names all have faux Spanish names (rancho this or whatever). The OC and SD county areas are divided between Camp Pendleton. The military base, as well as the presence of mountains, lowers the population density substantially. The politics here are definitely more socon than the 39th but not nearly as much as somewhere like Riverside or Fresno. It’s actually the most republican district on the pacific coast and Darrell Issa should be safe.

2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

41st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 41st is the northern San Diego suburbs more or less – Poway, Escondido, San Marcos and Carlsbad. This is mostly Spanish roofed homes built in the 70s and 80s and similar to the 2000s 50th district. Bilbray would have won here in 2012 but with him probably not wanting to be a third-time freshman, the seat goes to some other local republican in the state assembly or what not. I’d say tilt/lean R in open seat.
2008 Election Results: 50.8 Obama, 49.2 McCain

42nd District Susan Davis D-San Diego, Scott Peters D-San Diego

Comments: The 42nd is the north side of San Diego and the most trendy parts of the city. Not surprisingly this has the most liberal white population in San Diego. Disconnected by MCAS Miramar from the rest of the district is Scripps Ranch which is more republican than the rest of the district and more similar to areas in the 41st. Both Susan Davis and Scott Peters live here I think. Peters I think wouldn’t want to run in the 41st and Davis I think probably would retire if faced with a h2h matchup. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 61.2 Obama, 38.8 McCain

43rd District Juan Vargas D-San Diego

Comments: The 43rd is the oldest part of San Diego and contains the downtown area. It’s not as fashionable as the 42nd though it does contain some points of attraction – the Zoo and Coronado. This is the only part of San Diego with a really large Hispanic population (51%) which lives in a corridor stretching from the areas SE of San Diego (Logan Heights) to the communities of National City, Chula Vista and San Ysidro. This is also the most dem district in San Diego and has been voting dem for a long time. This was Bob Filner’s seat but he gave it up to run for mayor (wonder if he would have been exposed had he stayed on as a house member). The current house member is Juan Vargas who is certainly less liberal than Filner. Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 66.4 Obama, 33.6 McCain

44th District Duncan Hunter D-Alpine

Comments: Much of the district is in the area known as East County. This area is more secluded than the rest of San Diego County and certainly more socon than areas closer to the ocean. Despite the fact that the military bases are in the 42nd and 43rd – the reason those districts don’t vote republican is because the military members (which is a republican demo) largely don’t live there. Instead, a lot of them live here. Since 1983 (old man Hunter actually represented what is now the 43rd in 81-82) the district has been represented by the Hunters – Duncan Hunter Sr from 83-09 and his son since then. Both of them were/are reliable conservative votes, especially when it involves the military. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 44.9 Obama, 55.1 McCain

Florida

1st District Jeff Miller R-Chumuckla

Comments: This is almost like an extension of Alabama as George Wallace got about 60% of the vote here in 1968. It’s also a military heavy district with Eglin Air Force base and is one of the reasons why it’s the most R district in the state. Jeff Miller, the district’s congressman, sits on two committees important to his district – Veterans Affairs (which he chairs) and Armed Services (which he may eventually chair). Safe Republican.
2008 Election Results: 34.1 Obama, 65.9 McCain

2nd District Gwen Graham D-Tallahassee

Comments: There are some rural demosaur counties but the real electoral vitality for the democrats in the district is Leon County (Tallahassee) and since it is split, it’s hard to see Graham winning the district. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain

3rd District No Incumbent

Comments: The 3rd is a mostly rural district between Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Gainesville. I’m not sure who the local officeholders are in this area but it should go to a republican. Ted Yoho might run here.
2008 Election Results: 41.1 Obama, 58.9 McCain

4th District Ander Crenshaw R-Jacksonville, Corrine Brown D-Jacksonville

Comments: Jacksonville being so far north never had the tourism or population explosion of South Florida. It also has a southern feel to it and as a result dems will probably do better upballot. But Corrine Brown is not the right type of democrat to win the district. Someone like Alvin Brown would have a better shot against Crenshaw. Likely R with Brown, Tossup with someone else.
2008 Election Results: 51 Obama, 49 McCain

5th District No Incumbent

Comments: I’ve never been here but I assume the 5th is the only republican district in Florida that has a high presence of what I would claim is the single most durable southern republican voting bloc – exurban, socon, married families with kids still in the house. It’s actually the second most republican district in the state (only a point less than the 1st) and fast growing. This would have been DeSantis district but he’s running for the senate. Someone with similar views to him will probably win this seat though its possible Crenshaw would run here.
2008 Election Results: 35.3 Obama, 64.7 McCain
6th District Ted Yoho R-Gainesville

Comments: The 6th is a tale of two (mid-sized) cities with differing politics. Gainesville is home to the University of Florida and is predictably Dem. Ocala on the other hand is a small Florida city, similar to somewhere like Lakeland, and votes republican. This kind of cancels things out leading to a slight R advantage. Ted Yoho, the district’s congressman is something of a gadfly and could lose an R+4 seat like West did (the might run in FL-3)
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: I would call this the “Volusia” district. Daytona Beach is the main attraction there with the hard-sand beaches, race-car driving and boardwalk. Further inland is the small city of Deland which is where Stetson University is. The district has been trending republican as of late and Volusia is one of the few Kerry-Romney counties out there. It might have to do with the FDR generation dying off and being replaced by the silents (too young to fight in WWII and to old to fight in Vietnam). The democrats should still contest this, which would probably be tilt R at worst in an open seat.
2008 Election Results: 51.9 Obama, 48.1 McCain

8th District Dan Webster R-Winter Gardens

Comments: The 8th is mostly western Orlando exurbs. Areas further north and west are more republican while the areas to the south and east are more dem. It’s a pretty marginal district and Webster may have lost here in 2012. Webster first made the news as being the subject of a low-brow attack ad in 2010 called “Taliban Dan”. When he was first elected it was thought he would serve as a placeholder for a few years and call it quits but he was recently being discussed as a speaker candidate. Tossup.
2008 Results: 53.2 Obama, 46.8 McCain

9th District John Mica R-Winter Park

Comments: This is the urban core of the Orlando area but interestingly enough you can go to Central Florida for vacation without ever stepping foot in this district. This part of Florida used to be the most republican part of the state and was sending republicans to the legislature when the legislature was otherwise all-dem. But the area has trended hard to the dems in recent years – Orange County was one of only two Dole-Gore counties in the country. Still, the inclusion of a lot of Seminole county is what makes this district winnable for republicans. But Mica may be too conservative for the seat. So it should be a tossup.
2008 Results: 54.2 Obama, 45.8 McCain

10th District Rich Nugent R-Spring Hill

Comments: I would have thought the whitest district in Florida would be in the panhandle but this is actually the whitest district in the state (82.4%). The district is anchored by Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties which are sort of exurbs of the Tampa Area and sort of there own metro area. The district is basically a collection of master-planned retirement communities that vote republican. The district’s congressman, Rich Nugent, is retiring but there’s no reason to think it won’t elect another republican.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain

11th District Bill Posey R-Rockledge

Comments: This is the Space Coast district, being the site of Cape Canaveral and all. Bill Nelson actually represented this district in the 80s when it was far more republican at the presidential level, yet since 1994 no democrat has gotten above 45%. So it’s like the district has had two countervailing trends. This should be a safe R district.
2008 Election Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is the part of Florida you see if you go to Disneyworld as it has all the attractions plus the airport, so you may never leave the seat. The district is 35 percent hispanic, the highest of any district north of Miami. The hispanics coming here are not cubans, but puerto ricans who (at least in NY) are almost as democratic as blacks. This is the fastest growing part of the state as the district (up 53% from 2000-2010.) This is an open seat and should go to a democrat, but it might switch hands if there is a strong republican year in a low turnout midterm election. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.7 Obama, 42.3 McCain

13th District Gus Bilirakis R-Palm Harbor

Comments: This is basically the northern part of the Tampa Bay area. The Pinellas and Pasco portions of the district narrowly went for Obama but what pushes the district to the republicans is the Hillsborough portion which went 55% for McCain. But that only matters at the presidential level. Gus Bilirakis (Bil-i-rake-is I think) and his father have represented the district for a combined 32 years. After getting 56ish percent in his first run in 2006, he’s never gotten below 60 percent. The district is a little less republican than his current one but it shouldn’t make too much of a difference unless it’s an open seat. Safe R with Bilirakis, Lean/Likely R without.
2008 Election Results: 49.4 Obama, 50.6 McCain

14th District Dennis Ross R-Lakeland

Comments: The western part of the seat is basically the fast growing Tampa exurbs (the district as a whole grew 41% from 00-10) while the area to the east (Polk County) is a small Florida city and what I picture Orlando would be like without Disneyworld. The district IMO most represents the Florida Adam Carolla is talking about here (NSFW): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugmipPvTFE. The district’s congressman, Dennis Ross, has some tea party ties, but is otherwise a backbencher. He should be pretty safe.
2008 Election results: 44.8 Obama, 55.2 McCain

15th District Kathy Castor D-Tampa

Comments: The 15th district is the Tampa district. Tampa is somewhat of a blue collar community and is known for being the cigar manufacturing capital of the country. It also has a decent sized cuban population, many of which came to the United States before Castro. Kathy Castor, the district’s congresswoman, is from a well connected family in Florida politics – her father was a judge I think, her mother at one point ran for the senate and nearly won, and her sister is in the legislature. She is on the Energy and Commerce committee and could eventually chair it. The republicans came close to winning this seat in the 90s but since then it’s been pretty safe. Likely-to-Safe D.
2008 Election Results: 60.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain

16th District No Incumbent

Comments: St Petersburg has a reputation as being full of old geezers and the 16th, along with the 10th and 19th, are the three old districts in Florida with about 82ish percent of the population being over the age of 18. Much of this area has been represented by republicans for 60ish years though part of the reason was because of the incumbency of Bill Young. When he died, the dems nearly won the seat. With the district shifted further south and with it being an open seat, only Bill Young himself could have won this seat. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 56.3 Obama, 43.7 McCain

17th District Vern Buchanan R-Sarasota

Comments: The 17th is the southern part of the Tampa Bay area and in some ways is its own metro area. This part of Florida was heavily republican until the 90s and since then has stabilized at a low-to-mid single digit republican PVI. Vern Buchanan, the incumbent, nearly lost in 2006, but has won by pretty solid margins since. He has made the CREW corruption list before but he’s not blatantly corrupt so I’ll rate this Likely R.
2008 Results: 48.8 Obama, 51.2 McCain

18th District Lois Frankel D-West Palm Beach

Comments: This is northern Palm Beach county and is politically balanced out with a lot of republican Martin County. Despite the district shifting into Martin county, Frankel’s district actually stays the same PVI-wise. Basically, Frankel should continue to win unless its really a bad year.
2008 Results: 56.9 Obama, 43.1 McCain

19th District No Incumbent

Comments: The district has basically two components – the Sarasota and Charlotte county portion and the inland areas. The Sarasota and Charlotte county portions is typical of southwest Florida – lots of WASP retirees and has been consistently republican for 60-odd years. Further inland are the few parts of South Florida that haven’t been settled by outsiders and still have somewhat of a “southern” feel to it. No Incumbent lives here, but Tom Rooney may run here since this is pretty similar to his district. Safe R.
2008 Results: 44.7 Obama, 55.3 McCain

20th District Tom Rooney R-Okeechobee

Comments: The 20th district is the Treasure Coast district. Most of the district is pretty republican except for St Lucie county, which keeps it winnable for democrats. Rooney lists his residence in Okeechobee which is in the district but much of his seat is in the 19th. Tilt R in open seat.
2008 Results: 49.6 Obama, 50.4 McCain

21st District Curt Clawson R-Fort Meyers

Comments: The Fort Meyers area has grown enough that it can now have its own district. Lee County has always been republican though not as republican as it was circa 1952-1988. The district’s congressman, Curt Clawson, was elected in a 2014 special election, after Trey Radel resigned when it was discovered cocaine was being shipped to his house. Clawson, like Radel, is a tea party type and should be safe.
2008 Results: 44.1 Obama, 55.9 McCain

28th District DW Schultz D-Weston

Comments: This is sort of a leftovers seat in South Florida with a lot of federally protected property. The key parts of the district are western Broward county, Monroe county and Naples. Naples is the most republican part of the district and not unlike Fort Meyers. The Broward county portion isn’t as dem as other parts of the county, but the most dem part of the district. Monroe county is a swing county divided between gays/bohemians in Key West and republican retirees in the other parts of the county. Debbie Wasserman Schultz lives here but obviously couldn’t win here so I see Mario Diaz-Balart running here since he’s represented a lot of this area before. Safe R.
2008 Results: 47.8 Obama, 52.2 McCain

South Florida:

22nd District Ted Deutch (Sienna) D-Boca Raton
Comments: This is a condo-heavy district stretching from Lake Worth to Boca Raton and from the ocean to Loxahatchee. One of the key differences between the voting behavior of the retirees in Broward/Palm Beach and the rest of the state is where the people are from. Broward and Palm Beach counties did initially vote like Southwest Florida but in the 1970s, there was a large influx of jews from Miami which swung the counties leftward. It’s not just jews necessarily but people from the northeast in general. The remaining part of the state is mostly (obviously overgeneralizing) midwestern WASP types. Ted Deutch, despite the fact that he’s younger than a lot of his constituents, shares the profile as he’s a jew from Pennsylvania. His committee assignments are similar to that of former congressman Howard Berman – Foreign Affairs: where he has a pro-AIPAC voting record; and Judiciary – where he lines up with the liberals on culture war type issues. He could chair either committee in the future. Safe D.
2008 Results: 63.5 Obama, 36.5 McCain

23rd District (Aquamarine) No Incumbent
Comments: This district is pretty similar to Deutch’s district. There’s no incumbent here but Debbie Wasserman-Schultz probably runs here as its the whiter part of Broward county. Safe D.
2008 results: 63.9 Obama, 36.1 McCain

24th District (Indigo) No Incumbent
Comments: Among the Caucasian voters in the district, its probably pretty similar to the 22nd and 23rd districts, but it has a larger black and hispanic population which makes it the second most democratic district in the state. He lives just outside the district but it would make sense that Alcee Hastings would run here since it has a semi-large (29%) black population. I think he has a good chance of losing renomination or just retiring based on his corruption (which goes back to before he was in congress) and age in general (nearing 80). Safe D.
2008 Results: 70.2 Obama, 29.8 McCain
25th District (Pale Violet Red) Frederica Wilson D-Miami; Alcee Hastings D-Miramar
Comments: This is mostly northern Dade county which is where much of the black population lives, and some of Broward county. The district has the largest (37%) black population of any Florida district and not surprisingly is the state’s most democratic. Both Wilson and Hastings live here but I think Hastings runs in the 24th. Safe D.
2008 Results: 74.6 Obama, 25.4 McCain

26th District (Gray) IR Lehtinen R-Miami, Mario Diaz-Balart R-Miami, Carlos Curbelo R-Miami
Comments: This is the heart of Miami with the mansions, the artesian wells (which are actually in coral gables as is the u), the causeway and the airport. This is a heavily cuban district (70% hispanic) and the election results here are skewed by the small black population in the northern part of the seat. The cubans leaned or lean republican due to fierce anticommunism but with the exception of Rubio, many of them are not terribly conservative and more like NY Rs – machine guys with ties to sketchy outsiders (think Tony Montana). Three incumbents live here but I think only IRL runs here because it’s somewhat harder for a republican to win this seat and she would have the best chance. Lean R with IRL, Lean D without.
2008 Results: 55.3 Obama, 44.7 McCain

27th District (Spring Green) No Incumbent
Comments: This is the more suburban part of Dade county, stretching along the turnpike. It’s also heavily hispanic (70%) and the more republican part of Dade county. This is Curbelo’s seat but IRL might run here if she doesn’t want to run in the 26th (though she might retire in this scenario). Given the volatility of the hispanic population in Florida, I’d peg this as a tossup.
2008 Results: 51.7 Obama, 48.3 McCain

North Carolina

1st District No Incumbent

Comments: The 1st is the outer banks district, which is a popular tourist area and includes places like Kitty Hawk. This is a bucolic district where the pace of things are slower. The biggest cash crop in these areas is tobacco. This part of the state is very ancestrally democrat so don’t let the PVI fool you. It’s possible Walter Jones Jr could run here but otherwise this is an open seat and should be a tossup.
2008 Election Results: 48.3 Obama, 51.7 McCain

2nd District GK Butterfield D-Wilson, Walter Jones R-Farmville

Comments: This part of North Carolina is and always has been the district with the largest black population (the seat is 37% black) and used to give the democrats Soviet type numbers. The district is still a predominately rural, tobacco type district but the Raleigh metro area is starting to move into this district. Two congressman live here but Jones likely runs in the 3rd. GK Butterfield, the incumbent, likely loses the primary to a more traditional North Carolina democrat. Tilt D with Butterfield, Likely D without.
2008 Election Results: 54 Obama 46 McCain

3rd District Renee Elmers R-Dunn David Rouzer R-McGee Crossroads

Comments: The district kind of follows I-40 from Wilmington to a point near Raleigh. This is a military heavy district as it includes Camp Lejuene. Two congressmembers live here and a third is also likely to run in what is the only solidly republican district in eastern NC. Walter Jones, however, could run in the 1st, which his father represented. Elmers could run in the 2nd or 5th but that too might be a bridge too far. Same for Rouzer who might have trouble in the 7th. Both Elmers and Jones are both idiosyncratic and Rouzer is a backbencher. I would probably give Jones more of an advantage since he’s been there longer and has represented more of the district. But its possible Jones retires It should be close to a safe R seat.
2008 Election Results: 43.7 Obama, 56.3 McCain

4th District George Holding R-Raleigh

Comments: This is the Raleigh based district. Raleigh is the state capital and sits right on the dividing line between the coastal plain and the piedmont. The district has also trended dem as George W Bush won this seat as late as 2000. In any event Holding is pretty much screwed. I’m not sure who the democrats would run but I’d put this as Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 58.5 Obama, 41.5 McCain

5th District No Incumbent

Comments: This is a “disguised district”. While it looks like a typical small town textile district, 69% of the population lives in the Wake, Durham and Orange county portions, known as “the research triangle”. The creative class economy has attracted people from all over, making the 5th the fastest growing district in the state. The most notable landmark in the district is UNC which is a major university (and very liberal) and with a reputable basketball team. No incumbent lives here, but it should go dem. Likely D.
2008 Election Results: 57.9 Obama, 42.1 McCain
6th District David Price D-Durham

Comments: The 6th district stretches from Durham to Greensboro and then north to the Virginia border. Durham is a lot different than the rest of the district as it’s a strongly dem college town (and with a large black population). The rest of the district is classic piedmont country, dominated by textile, tobacco and furniture. The incumbent is David Price who was a former Duke professor. He is one of the dems who lost in 1994 but won in 1996. He is now the No 6 dem on the house appropriations committee and ranking member of the public housing subcommittee. But he is also 75 and will probably retire soon. Not sure who would replace him, but the district should remain dem.
2008 Election Results: 59 Obama, 41 McCain

7th District No Incumbent

Comments: This district stretches from the Atlantic coast to the sand hills, along the South Carolina border. The biggest city is Fayetteville which is a military town with nearby Fort Bragg and sort of has a reputation as being seedy (I’ve heard it called fayettenam). The district also has a relatively large native American population (8%). Rouzer could run here but I don’t think he could win and runs in the 3rd instead. As for the democrats, Kissell could run here but other than that I don’t know. Lean D.
2008 Election Results: 53.5 Obama, 46.5 McCain

8th District Richard Hudson R-Concord

Comments: This is a mix between piedmont textile country and the charlotte exurbs. The district is mostly republican except for a few areas in the far eastern part of the district. Richard Hudson, who I think barely lives in the district should be pretty safe here.
2008 Election Results: 40.3 Obama, 59.7 McCain

9th District Robert Pittenger R-Charlotte

Comments: Charlotte is the largest city in the state and unlike other piedmont cities never had much of a textile or furniture industry. The main industry here is banking. It also started voting republican earlier than other parts of the state, electing a republican congressman as early as 1952. This part of NC has experienced a kind of political parabola starting out dem, then going republican and then going back to the democrats. In fact, despite being the most dem district in the state, GW Bush may have won it in 2000. This all bodes badly for Bob Pittenger, who had a tough race in 2012. He’s already 67 so he probably just retires. A likely dem nominee would be Anthony Foxx.
2008 Election Results: 62.8 Obama, 37.2 McCain

10th District No Incumbent

Comments: The 10th district is the I-85 district, going between Charlotte and the Triad. Like the 8th it’s a mix of piedmont small manufacturing cities and charlotte exurbs. Lexington, on the NE corner is supposedly the barbeque capital of the world. The 10th is another district that has been voting republican longer than the rest of the state and should go to a republican. It’s an open seat though so I’m not sure who it should go to. Safe R.
2008 Election Results: 42.5 Obama, 57.5 McCain
11th District Alma Adams D-Greensboro Mark Walker R-Greensboro

Comments: This is the Greensboro-High Point district. This is a typical piedmont city with typical piedmont industries. It’s generally a middle-of-the road district and two incumbents living here are too far right or too far left to win. A more new-dem/blue-dog could probably easily win here. Otherwise hard to tell what happens. Tossup if these two run against each other.
2008 Election Results: 50.7 Obama, 49.3 McCain

12th District No Incumbent

Comments: There are two components to this district – the Forsyth portion and the rest of the state. Forsyth County (Winston-Salem) is a tobacco-town and also home to Wake Forest University. Winston-Salem (Forsyth is almost 40% of district) has been trending dem as of late and will be the basis of any dem victory here. The rest of the district is 64% McCain and has been voting republican for awhile, some of it going back to the founding of the party. Although she doesn’t live here, this would be Virginia Foxx’s district. Foxx had a tough race or two in 2006 and 2008 and with an R+10 district could come close to losing. Lean R for now, safer without Foxx (who’s old and may retire anyways)
2008 Election Results: 44 Obama, 56 McCain

13th District Patrick McHenry R-Cherryville, Virginia Foxx R-Banner Elk

Comments: The 13th is where the piedmont meets the mountains and home to a lot of furniture manufacturing companies. Some of this area hasn’t elected a democrat to congress since the 60s and this is the most republican district in the state. Both Foxx and McHenry live here but this is clearly McHenry’s seat. The seat should be safe.
2008 Election Results: 38.2 Obama, 61.8 McCain

14th District Mark Meadows R-Cashiers

Comments: The 14th is surprisingly moderate for a mountain district. I would assume it would vote more like Eastern Tennessee or North Georgia. Even removing counterculture-heavy Asheville doesn’t explain it. In any event, Meadows doesn’t seem like an impressive incumbent and could lose even if Schuler doesn’t run. Tilt R.
2008 Election Results: 48.2 Obama, 51.8 McCain

Alaska At-Large Don Young R-Fort Yukon

Comments: This is one of several at-large states covered in this series which effectively draws itself and obviously can’t be gerrymandered. Don Young is anything but young as he is 82 and been in congress half his life. He is a typical Alaska republican and is borderline corrupt, but I don’t think the Alaska voters really care that much about it. He has had close calls before (like in 2008) but unless he’s actually charged with something (I guess he’s Dapper Don), he should be ok. I do expect him to retire soon. Likely R.
2008 Election Results: 38.9 Obama, 61.1 McCain